March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
+77
Artechmetals
snowlover78
Lnda23
cooladi
Dtone
WeatherBob
mancave25
snemiroff
Dunnzoo
dad4twoboys
jldio
Radz
Sparky Sparticles
lisalamb
petep10
heehaw453
toople
jake732
Snow88
Joe Snow
2004blackwrx
SENJsnowman
devsman
oldtimer
freezerburn
docstox12
brownie
HeresL
Math23x7
mwilli5783
SkiSeadooJoe
hurrysundown23
frank 638
emokid51783
Vinnydula
mikeypizano
Aiosamoney21
richb521
GreyBeard
Carter bk
sroc4
bluebythec
dkodgis
Angela0621
deadrabbit79
bobjohnsonforthehall
larryrock72
skinsfan1177
Smittyaj623
rb924119
nujerzeedevil
shawnerak
bloc1357
gigs68
jjlane25
Grselig
nutleyblizzard
essexcountypete
mmanisca
dsix85
crippo84
RJB8525
jimv45
algae888
Scullybutcher
Quietace
adamfitz1969
aiannone
amugs
billg315
Taffy
jmanley32
weatherwatchermom
CPcantmeasuresnow
SoulSingMG
Sanchize06
Frank_Wx
81 posters
Page 2 of 40
Page 2 of 40 • 1, 2, 3 ... 21 ... 40
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
The top image is Deep Thunder and the bottom one is GEM-LAM
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
NWS snow map
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Ndfd_snow_neng_9.png.90b7b9727e667ffe27db602bbb7b649d](https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2018_03/ndfd_snow_neng_9.png.90b7b9727e667ffe27db602bbb7b649d.png)
WPC much more conservative
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 5ab100b45245e_wpc_snow_72_50_neng(1).png.67a934b11abd7f4b1476f4af53e44d0c](https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2018_03/5ab100b45245e_wpc_snow_72_50_neng(1).png.67a934b11abd7f4b1476f4af53e44d0c.png)
ARW which have not wavered with this storm
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 5ab10582ea1a3_FinalARW.thumb.png.b3d6038351b9e999630ba5153be153b7](https://files.usa-wx.com/monthly_2018_03/5ab10582ea1a3_FinalARW.thumb.png.b3d6038351b9e999630ba5153be153b7.png)
From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp adn needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Ndfd_snow_neng_9.png.90b7b9727e667ffe27db602bbb7b649d](https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2018_03/ndfd_snow_neng_9.png.90b7b9727e667ffe27db602bbb7b649d.png)
WPC much more conservative
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 5ab100b45245e_wpc_snow_72_50_neng(1).png.67a934b11abd7f4b1476f4af53e44d0c](https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2018_03/5ab100b45245e_wpc_snow_72_50_neng(1).png.67a934b11abd7f4b1476f4af53e44d0c.png)
ARW which have not wavered with this storm
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 5ab10582ea1a3_FinalARW.thumb.png.b3d6038351b9e999630ba5153be153b7](https://files.usa-wx.com/monthly_2018_03/5ab10582ea1a3_FinalARW.thumb.png.b3d6038351b9e999630ba5153be153b7.png)
From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp adn needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
billg315 wrote:I'm not sure I get all the talk of eastward trends? From what I've seen, ONE model (the NAM) jumped east last night. That happens to be the model that was waaaay WEST at 0z yesterday evening. Not sure I would trust the model that had 20" of snow in NW NJ last at 0Z and then suddenly flurries at 6z run, when other models are staying more consistent. All the other models are status quo more or less. As for cutoffs, if we're talking about PA and far NW NJ, there's always been a good chance of a sharp cutoff there (look at my snow map yesterday, which was done before any east shift in the NAM).
You are correct. Though some models struggle with taking the SLP north of a certain latitude. It never gets to the BM. Instead it moves due east. EURO hinted at this last night, hence the lighter totals to the north. Difference with NAM and EURO though is EURO manages to tap into the dynamics and still get banding into our area.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
I think this is overdone but who knows at this point. This is 8 PM tomorrow and still snowing. I'd sign for that 11 inches right now and run with it.
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Imagep16](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/18/73/85/04/imagep16.jpg)
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Imagep16](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/18/73/85/04/imagep16.jpg)
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
amugs; From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp and needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here
I won't feel safe until Frank picks a banner and we are out of "Storm Mode".
I won't feel safe until Frank picks a banner and we are out of "Storm Mode".
![Laughing](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_lol.gif)
Taffy- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 530
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-10-06
Location : Hopkinton, MA
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
09z SREFS
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Capture.PNG.6a608e7efdbee7aa01d4962161b756c1](https://content.invisioncic.com/r273943/monthly_2018_03/Capture.PNG.6a608e7efdbee7aa01d4962161b756c1.PNG)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Frank_Wx wrote:09z SREFS
Mean is about 9” for NYC on east
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4817
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
aiannone wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:09z SREFS
Mean is about 9” for NYC on east
The SREFS always seem to overdo the precipitation amounts at least in my mind. Is that a false perception of mine or do you find the same thing? I'm throwing this out there to anyone to answer.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
CP, I find them to over-do qpf as well but that is why it's important to understand current observations. There is a lot of convection firing up in the south. Tight pressure gradients to our north will bring about frontogenesis over NJ and NYC. Not sure how far north that frontogenesis gets. GFS has it over NYC Metro and just N&W.
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Gfsne_10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/19/08/36/36/gfsne_10.png)
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Gfsne_10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/19/08/36/36/gfsne_10.png)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
NAM showing improvements, the 6z was a blip. Even storm 1 has improved.
adamfitz1969- Posts : 122
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2018-03-01
Age : 54
Location : Tarrytown
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
The ARW cores are trash.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I think this is overdone but who knows at this point. This is 8 PM tomorrow and still snowing. I'd sign for that 11 inches right now and run with it.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3689
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 27
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4817
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4817
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
All snow this run. Cut out the sleet
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4817
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
This is blizzard territory. What a run.
adamfitz1969- Posts : 122
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2018-03-01
Age : 54
Location : Tarrytown
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
aiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
I like the sound of that
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 543
Reputation : 16
Join date : 2013-02-06
Location : North Smithtown, western Suffolk county, long island
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Okay I'm all in now nam crushes us. What really Saiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
telling is my temperature right now 30 degrees with a dew point of 9 I believe whatever Falls tonight and tomorrow will have no problem accumulating my grass was frozen this morning
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 62
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
12z nam major Godzilla and def possible b word!! 12 plus and a spot in NJ just SW of NYC with 20 wow.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
I'm excited Al hoping we finally get our biggie this year!!algae888 wrote:Okay I'm all in now nam crushes us. What really Saiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
telling is my temperature right now 30 degrees with a dew point of 9 I believe whatever Falls tonight and tomorrow will have no problem accumulating my grass was frozen this morning
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4817
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
NAM!!!!!!!!!
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Screenshot.thumb.png.b15737ee719fcffe90407cc8e88de628](https://files.usa-wx.com/monthly_2018_03/Screenshot.thumb.png.b15737ee719fcffe90407cc8e88de628.png)
![March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations - Page 2 Screenshot.thumb.png.b15737ee719fcffe90407cc8e88de628](https://files.usa-wx.com/monthly_2018_03/Screenshot.thumb.png.b15737ee719fcffe90407cc8e88de628.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
From a couple for pro mets - 6Z NAM was a burp adn needs to be tossed for it SLP depiction. That should ease some of the panic in here!!
Well well - easy now fancy pants - NAM has just dropped teh Mic Peeps - NWS is on this biggly!
Well well - easy now fancy pants - NAM has just dropped teh Mic Peeps - NWS is on this biggly!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
Upton hinting at possible now dont blow teh roof here but possibly hoisting B warnings for LI and then redressing for NYC Metro. I know Goodman from Upton and he said they just are waiting for 12Z suite to finish - need a little more support but it is on the table for NYC Metro.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4817
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
algae888 wrote:Okay I'm all in now nam crushes us. What really Saiannone wrote:12z NAM nukes LI, NENJ, and NYC
telling is my temperature right now 30 degrees with a dew point of 9 I believe whatever Falls tonight and tomorrow will have no problem accumulating my grass was frozen this morning
Al you have been very noticeably absent from this one?
Depression from the last three? Scared of getting shafted again? We've all been there.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
amugs wrote:Upton hinting at possible now dont blow teh roof here but possibly hoisting B warnings for LI and then redressing for NYC Metro. I know Goodman from Upton and he said they just are waiting for 12Z suite to finish - need a little more support but it is on the table for NYC Metro.
Woah so blizzard warnings should be issued within an hour or 2?
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4817
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations
I will take the latest Nam for southern Dutchess, but boy northern areas get the shaft big time.
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.
Page 2 of 40 • 1, 2, 3 ... 21 ... 40
Page 2 of 40
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|