Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:40 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so...

that's crazy and a pretty good consensus this far our. Still doesn't have intensity right but better than last few. When can they send a recon? We need that badly. Can they send one from Bermuda? But after that she's go have be pretty close to the USA to go out which is concerning.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:42 pm

Vagabond hurricane lol

by **sroc4** Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:57 pm

Recon starting Monday from what I heard

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:57 pm

Wow barely a hurricane nhc has her going to a ts before reintensifying tomorrow and gaining major again on Tuesday as she nears or passes Bermuda. Wouldn't it be ironic if this is her end? I doubt it but see.

by **billg315** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:12z EPS ain't cute if you want any sleep the next week or so...

that's crazy and a pretty good consensus this far our. Still doesn't have intensity right but better than last few. When can they send a recon? We need that badly. Can they send one from Bermuda? But after that she's go have be pretty close to the USA to go out which is concerning.

Well, pretty good consensus to about 500 miles off the Carolina coast. Then it pretty evenly diverges from landfalls anywhere from GA, to mid-Atlantic, to Cape Cod and a bunch of tracks curling out to sea (which, if we're being honest, is the most common track for coastal threatening storms once they get north of the Carolinas). I'd still say experience tells us that the most likely paths are either into the Carolina coast or curling out to sea. The catch is, and what makes tracking these closely so vital, it only takes one anomalous storm (see Sandy) to do a lot of damage in the NJ/NYC region. So can't write anything off until the storm has actually run its course. I really don't think we'll have a good idea on this until Monday -- and frankly maybe not until 48 hours out as we've seen with some close call storms over the years.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:06 pm

Well said. I think this may be one of the very rare ones but us just a hunch.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:11 pm

Florence is struggling bigtime

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 10 Goes1610

by **Quietace** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:34 pm

It is becoming more and more obvious by the pattern evolution/trends on model guidance that Florence is becoming increasingly likely to be a major outlier to climo (as discussed earlier this week) and not recurve before the eastern US. In the mist of possible outcomes out here, I state an abundance of caution on being overly concerned at the moment given the possible adjustments in the projected evolution of the storm over the next few days. We are still in the wait and see phase, before an action phase.
Also, when posting the GFS, remember it is not ocean coupled and will over intensify a TC. Remember when posting the Euro it has a funky TC initialization scheme that often under does surface pressure, hence in the short term, it often does not follow the correct steering flow. Additionally remember, Ensembles are your friend at this lead time, except the under-dispersive GEFS. Finally, also note the limitations in Hurricane-statistical guidance on those "track plots" and what each are, as some can often be thrown out right away.

by **Quietace** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:37 pm

The 5pm NHC update continues the adjustment to more horizontal, rather than meridional movement of Florence over the next 5-days.

by **amugs** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:47 pm

From my neighbor who goes by Superstorm - Met kid from Millersville

If you cut out all the climo models (OCD5, CLIPR, CLP5) and the trash models like the CMC and NOGAPS, you're left with this :

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 10 Wuebf.PNG.0218baa51a6d24a895c3aabc664fa8e5

2018 Hurricane Season - Page 10 Wuebf.PNG.0218baa51a6d24a895c3aabc664fa8e5

Jesus H!!

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:48 pm

Ace and u were almost positive on a recurve beginning of week. Amazing how rare things can and do happen. I understand as u said still caution on what to exactly expect. So basically an intensity compro.use between gfs and euro may b most plausible?

by **amugs** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:48 pm

I have said this before on my blog site and other bds - we have anomalous pattern setting up and with that we get anomalous storms - history loves to repeat itself - good thing moon is in 1st quarter and not full - I have to check planetary alignment for this as well.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:49 pm

amugs wrote:From my neighbor who goes by Superstorm - Met kid from Millersville

If you cut out all the climo models (OCD5, CLIPR, CLP5) and the trash models like the CMC and NOGAPS, you're left with this :

Jesus H!!

almost all are dead on to jersey or ny or ct. Wowzers

by **Quietace** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:51 pm

amugs wrote:From my neighbor who goes by Superstorm - Met kid from Millersville

If you cut out all the climo models (OCD5, CLIPR, CLP5) and the trash models like the CMC and NOGAPS, you're left with this :

Jesus H!!

I have to say that if we are throwing the CMC out half of those models should also be thrown out based on skill.....Back to work for me.

by **Grselig** Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:53 pm

amugs wrote:I have said this before on my blog site and other bds - we have anomalous pattern setting up and with that we get anomalous storms - history loves to repeat itself - good thing moon is in 1st quarter and not full - I have to check planetary alignment for this as well.

What's your blog address. I'd love to read your thoughts!

Every time we see a hurricane develop, solutions almost always differ from the result. I just want to see all possibilities and hope the worst does not come to fruition.

by **Sanchize06** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:01 pm

GFS at hr 96, slightly south of 12z and ridge is building in even quicker, landfall could be inevitable this run

by **GreyBeard** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:16 pm

Was reading that there are 4 more areas of development behind Florence, so the second half of the season should be interesting to say the least.

by **Sanchize06** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:21 pm

Noticeably stronger ridge and weaker system, yet ends up east so far of 12z, interesting lol

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:22 pm

amugs wrote:I have said this before on my blog site and other bds - we have anomalous pattern setting up and with that we get anomalous storms - history loves to repeat itself - good thing moon is in 1st quarter and not full - I have to check planetary alignment for this as well.

This is what I've been trying to sayyyy all dayyyy lol. Who's ready for the tipsy 18z GFS?! #HappyHour is now #HurricaneHour

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:34 pm

Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:42 pm

Dunno where he getting that from and appears gfs is making a loop back to the coast? This could be much longer than next week if she pulls that

by **amugs** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:46 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:50 pm

amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.

Strongly agree

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:06 pm

Yeah I was shocked it wasnt a direct landfall with that ridge blocking her, didn't make sense.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:09 pm

amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.
I agree 100%. That ridge means business. My current thinking is Florence will make it just offshore the coastline before feeling the effects of the ridge and start to meander. That would be a bad thing with the circulation remaining in that bathwater. The big question that remains is where on the coastline does this occur the outer banks, delmarva, or long Island? Time will tell.

by **jmanley32** Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:18 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.
I agree 100%. That ridge means business. My current thinking is Florence will make it just offshore the coastline before feeling the effects of the ridge and start to meander. That would be a bad thing with the circulation remaining in that bathwater. The big question that remains is where on the coastline does this occur the outer banks, delmarva, or long Island? Time will tell.

So you think she never has any diurect impacts over land? basically a beach crusher, rain and wind not a issue, if so its not a concern here but i will worry for those living on the water along coast.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Lee Goldberg leaning towards an OTS solution. He said he likes the latest trend of a more eastern track. Um, is he going by one GFS run???

Of course he is, minimalist sorry.
As I see it
No clue how the GFS is pushing this storm into a 594db ridge that aint happening sorry makes no meteorological sense. Push the storm west by how much is anyone's guess 75 -1 50 miles?
Don't like this run - not the pattern set up it is depicting - surface is ...........off by my eye.
Just again my opin to the pattern here.
I agree 100%. That ridge means business. My current thinking is Florence will make it just offshore the coastline before feeling the effects of the ridge and start to meander. That would be a bad thing with the circulation remaining in that bathwater. The big question that remains is where on the coastline does this occur the outer banks, delmarva, or long Island? Time will tell.

So you think she never has any diurect impacts over land? basically a beach crusher, rain and wind not a issue, if so its not a concern here but i will worry for those living on the water along coast.

I never said that. How about a cat 3 sitting 50 miles off Sandy Hook N.J? You'll feel it. An extreme example but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities with a pig ridge like that.

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