HomeFLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:03 am
GFS coming in slightly east of 18z at hr 108. Ridge a little bit weaker as well
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:06 am
Hr 120 looks like the ridge isn't pressing down as much on it. This could get a little further north this run
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:16 am
Or not. Stalls off NC coast
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:20 am
Oh this run is insane. Hasn't moved in 36 hours
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by weatherwatchermom Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:23 am
watching..can it really do that?Sanchize06 wrote:Oh this run is insane. Hasn't moved in 36 hours
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:25 am
50 hours now of it not going anywhere
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:26 am
weatherwatchermom wrote:watching..can it really do that?Sanchize06 wrote:Oh this run is insane. Hasn't moved in 36 hours
I doubt it, not for this length of time anyway
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by weatherwatchermom Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:30 am
Something has to be wrong with this run how could it be in same spot for 70 hrs??
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:36 am
Only the GFS lol This obviously would never happen
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by SoulSingMG Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:39 am
Sanchize06 wrote:Only the GFS lol This obviously would never happen
Such a dumpster fire model. Despicable. I just heard the UKIE jumped east of Hatteras!? Haven't seen it yet so can't verify...
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Grselig Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:39 am
But can it be the beginning of a trend or simply GFS error?
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by rb924119 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:41 am
Sanchize06 wrote:Only the GFS lol This obviously would never happen
The stall/retrograde/loop could for that time, but not at that intensity. That part is impossible.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Sanchize06 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:45 am
SoulSingMG wrote:Sanchize06 wrote:Only the GFS lol This obviously would never happen
Such a dumpster fire model. Despicable. I just heard the UKIE jumped east of Hatteras!? Haven't seen it yet so can't verify...
That would join the GFS and ICON if it is east of Hatteras
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:53 am
Keep an eye on Helen or Isaac. Can’t tell by quick analysis but one of them ends up tugging on Florence from the east as she reaches OBx
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:55 am
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jmanley32 Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:13 am
welll recon oinfo was in at 00z soooo...maybe a stall and then OTS far south of here is whats go happen. ICON has a curve back NW at hr 180 thats why looks ominous, if it isnt a blip and it continued it would slam right into the area.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jmanley32 Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:33 am
Euro is night and day with gfs. He 120 quick landfall yet again further north into central nc now and well inland. So which one is right or are they both wrong? Levi put a video up. He fees hit area is Florida to nc. Bernie last I saw thinks nc to cape cod. So still a lot of uncertainty.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Math23x7 Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:17 am
The 0Z ECMWF OP is DEVASTATING for a good chunk of North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland. Not only does a Category 3 make landfall in Wilmington, NC at 956 mb, but it stalls dumping FEET of rain to this region. Given all the rain they've gotten lately, this would be a Harvey redux.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Joe Snow Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:05 am
Each of the points on the ensembles (spaghetti map) is a 6 hour time frame, Florence gets to the coast and crawls The blue is the forecast cone, but its trending more north of the cone. Current data.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jmanley32 Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:31 am
Thats scary to think, AND shes been progressively ticking more north, i mean maryland is not that far away, even 06z gfs which stays south still gives us a good dose of rain, now if she somehow made it up here and stuck around that would be bad. Not a cat 3 unless track changed drastically but still I keep remembering Irene.Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z ECMWF OP is DEVASTATING for a good chunk of North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland. Not only does a Category 3 make landfall in Wilmington, NC at 956 mb, but it stalls dumping FEET of rain to this region. Given all the rain they've gotten lately, this would be a Harvey redux.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:41 am
I still think the European Model suite forecast(operational and ensembles) are underdoing the intensity of Florence; esp for the next 2 days. If you look below at the current NHC forecast they have it intensify to Major status by about 60W longitude; however, notice the overwhelming majority of Ensembles members keep her as a >1000mb system(green) in this same time frame. This likely results in a spread along the coast too far south overall.
I am with some of the others in that I believe a landfall will likely occur north of the current NHC forecast track, and believe the NHC forecast cone will cont to shift north as it has over the past 24hrs, and look something like this over the next few days.
Latest microwave imagery shows nice concentric rings around the center of circulation; expanding outward indicating much better organization and strengthening is occurring. The latest sat imagery also indicates the convection cont to organizes around it as well.
You can really see the outflow arms really beginning to take shape in the SE, SW and NW quadrants indicating better structure and on her way to deepening.
Only the NE quad lacks the outflow arm due to the shear environment it is still under.
I am with some of the others in that I believe a landfall will likely occur north of the current NHC forecast track, and believe the NHC forecast cone will cont to shift north as it has over the past 24hrs, and look something like this over the next few days.
Latest microwave imagery shows nice concentric rings around the center of circulation; expanding outward indicating much better organization and strengthening is occurring. The latest sat imagery also indicates the convection cont to organizes around it as well.
You can really see the outflow arms really beginning to take shape in the SE, SW and NW quadrants indicating better structure and on her way to deepening.
Only the NE quad lacks the outflow arm due to the shear environment it is still under.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:15 am
"Eye" see you!!!! She has been upgraded to hurricane once again. Off we go. Recon plane on its way to Florence
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Quietace Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:26 am
Agree with your previous disco. This will certainly reach Cat 5 strength sometime in the next few days. Certainly not a good look for those in its way.sroc4 wrote:"Eye" see you!!!! She has been upgraded to hurricane once again. Off we go. Recon plane on its way to Florence
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:24 am
Recon is in the storm
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:27 am
jwalsh wrote:Recon is in the storm
Yup. Min pressure down to 983mb on the first pass with 70kt flight level winds found so far
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by mwilli5783 Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:34 am
twc is off the air...no weather recharge as of 10:20am
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:47 am
Same here, do you have Optimum? ESPN and NFL are down toomwilli5783 wrote:twc is off the air...no weather recharge as of 10:20am
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