Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:04 pm

rb 12z jma stays plenty south, bit further north then due west and does out 192 but not enough for an "excitement as you say.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:05 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yeah looks like if u in nc u should be concerned but otherwise time to move on darn.

Please don’t start the “move on” Jon. Don’t be surprised to see this system having at least one trick up it’s sleeve.

Speaking of, do I spy the northern spread of the EPS creeping north??

dunno, nothing to compare to it, scott your right irma pulled a huge change in her track, if this gets to cat 3 4 or even 5 then she can do just about whatever she wants, even breakdown the block to the north possibly.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:07 pm

18z markedly south, def no consensus on exact placement.

by jwalsh Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yeah looks like if u in nc u should be concerned but otherwise time to move on darn.

Please don’t start the “move on” Jon. Don’t be surprised to see this system having at least one trick up it’s sleeve.

Speaking of, do I spy the northern spread of the EPS creeping north??

dunno, nothing to compare to it, scott your right irma pulled a huge change in her track, if this gets to cat 3 4 or even 5 then she can do just about whatever she wants, even breakdown the block to the north possibly.

Yep, I remember we all had Irma turning north and heading along the east coast of Florida. Then the ridge to her north intensified and she ended up making landfall on the Gulf coast. We will have to wait and see

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:36 pm

You can definitely see an eye on the satellite now. Florence should start rapidly strengthening now

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:23 pm

Lol as a longtime lurker I've never seen this place so dead when there is a potentially major weather feature pending like this one...where is the fighting spirit!?!?

by mwilli5783 Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:26 pm

everybody seems 2 b either watching football or twc or waiting 4 model updates

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:31 pm

mwilli5783 wrote:everybody seems 2 b either watching football or twc or waiting 4 model updates

Who needs updates when you can just speculate! Need more "did I just see it jolt north" while watching real time radar lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:32 pm

No its prolly no threat to us so people have lost interest but first run that has her back up the coast we be all over it lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:33 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
mwilli5783 wrote:everybody seems 2 b either watching football or twc or waiting 4 model updates

Who needs updates when you can just speculate! Need more "did I just see it jolt north" while watching real time radar lol

there is no radar for the ocean or did u mean sattelite?

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:35 pm

Im just waiting for the 00z runs, as I have nothing to add at the moment. For what it's worth, the hurricane models are pretty decently clustered within the state of North Carolina.

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:39 pm

rb924119 wrote:Im just waiting for the 00z runs, as I have nothing to add at the moment. For what it's worth, the hurricane models are pretty decently clustered within the state of North Carolina.

#Yup #Same #00zs

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:45 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Zhukov1945 wrote:
mwilli5783 wrote:everybody seems 2 b either watching football or twc or waiting 4 model updates

Who needs updates when you can just speculate! Need more "did I just see it jolt north" while watching real time radar lol
there is no radar for the ocean or did u mean sattelite?

The point is clear, regardless of the method

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:Im just waiting for the 00z runs, as I have nothing to add at the moment. For what it's worth, the hurricane models are pretty decently clustered within the state of North Carolina.

Yeah, very true. Hopecasting at this point for a little earlier turn to keep things interesting.

by **Radz** Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:00 pm

Nice eye emerging...

by jwalsh Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:14 pm

Longwave IR

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 12 Ea24a510

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:44 pm

Can't post bc file too large but beautiful image of Flo's eye emerging...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c81becf77a3c193a818f443ec9981b67f40c3ed6a4bb13db713ac819a56d6b2c.gif?w=800&h=535

by jwalsh Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:51 pm

90 mph and 974 mb at the 11 pm advisory. Should start to make the NW turn and rapidly intensify tomorrow.

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:52 pm

FWIW NAM does NOT look like the EURO lol

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:54 pm

jwalsh wrote:90 mph and 974 mb at the 11 pm advisory. Should start to make the NW turn and rapidly intensify tomorrow.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 12 Flo_1111

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:58 pm

ICON running now...

by Zhukov1945 Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:27 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
ICON running now...

...and showing massive stall on the Outer Banks which seems to be a consistent feature these days.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:05 am

WOW GFS markedly north....

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:10 am

Bernie says Cape May NJ to NC, Its def not over and GFS looks to be coming in more north and is much further inalndm , may bring impacts.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:14 am

Wow, huge shift north after initial landfall, not so much of a meander, Bernie also doesnt feel that will happen.

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 12 Gfs_ms20

Progresses due west from there, but talking 6 days out, no way to know at this point. Def cut out the 11+ days of tracking.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:34 am

She's comiiiiinnnnnggggg north. Basketball

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:58 am

Quick question isn't it possible when she gets up to major hurricane which is projected couldn't she push more north being a stronger storm instead of a west track

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