Long Range Thread 18.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
The press is real my issue is its 6 days away and showing these big hits.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
lglickman1 wrote:Any chance this storm would be suppressed the same as this weekends storm?
Absolutely it can be with that press. I'm more concerned with suppression than cutter.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
So on the GFS we have a Friday event (minor) and a Sunday-Monday event (major). A lot of details to be worked out. But as Frank has been saying, the temps with and behind this storm are real cold. Highs maybe not breaking 20* on Monday.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
billg315 wrote:So on the GFS we have a Friday event (minor) and a Sunday-Monday event (major). A lot of details to be worked out. But as Frank has been saying, the temps with and behind this storm are real cold. Highs maybe not breaking 20* on Monday.
Correct and storms behind major one
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
taking a wait n see approach on the storm by wednesday we should know
mwilli5783- Posts : 146
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
skinsfan1177 wrote:Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days
That may certainly be true and it is 6 days away but both latest GFS and Euro show similar numbers and last night's CMC did as well. It's not like there is just one model that is an outlier and everything else shows something completely different. The potential is there for something very significant next weekend.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
skinsfan1177 wrote:Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days
Even now the temps aren't looking so great. Looks more like rain
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Frank is killing me lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
is there something more encouraging set up wise that would make us think it should be cold enough and not suppressed? Seems like the this weekend's storm was never a good set up from the start, models never really showed anything good. Could this set up be different for the better?
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Oh 18z GFS you so perfect, beautiful run!
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.
The models during the 27th- new year prediction of a colder and wintry weather pattern never really caught up and I guess it was for a good reason too since that change didn't happen. I guess we'll have to wait a few more days to see if the forecast catches up or not. As of right now, it looks too warm to stay snow.
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
HectorO wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.
The models during the 27th- new year prediction of a colder and wintry weather pattern never really caught up and I guess it was for a good reason too since that change didn't happen. I guess we'll have to wait a few more days to see if the forecast catches up or not. As of right now, it looks too warm to stay snow.
Not true for a good portion of this board. Still too early to look closely at thermal profiles in detail but don't underestimate cold air anchored north of us.
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Comes on the lunar eclipse
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
My onky worries with these models is if it gets more Gucci Mane (Icy) and less Jeezy (the snowman). I forsee some late night tracking this week...
emokid51783- Posts : 144
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Frank_Wx wrote:It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south
Frank what's your take on the pv press on each GFS ensemble run its has got stronger each time is that concern you at all. Your take on this thank you
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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