Banter Thread 5.0
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
jmanley32 wrote:nah I want a snowstorm.billg315 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less. Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often. Going to bed without back pain in a long time.
Jman, glad to hear everything went well. Hope you're feeling better. We'll try to get you a good windstorm to celebrate your recovery!![]()
That's good news!
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?
crippo84- Posts : 383
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Aren’t they just cutiepies!
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
crippo84 wrote:What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?
Cold and dry is the worst!!!!!! Especially in a pattern that SHOULD produce.
So I will take the terrible pattern because I can go to bed at night knowing the next 2-3 weeks will be snowless.
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Geee....my negativity doesnt seem to be so misplaced now does it? I COULD now complain about all of you making all these negative posts but I won't cuz thats not me. Now you all see why I was so frustrated, I do not see getting over 10 inches this year IF that. LOL I think my head is gonna spin off. I just found out today that along with my shoulder having some arthritic issues I not have disks in my neck that are not aligned correctly....I swear it never ends. So onto the neck specialist. Good news is that I met me out of pocket maximum (only $1000) so all medical till dec 31st 2020 will cost me nothing in network. I intend to take full advantage of that and get a lot taken care of including getting back to physical therapy. At least I have a lot to keep my mind off the weather. Yes I know doc CP, I am too young for this, well I dunno why but its happening to me at 38. Some medical issues cannot be explained at a early age, my sisters ex had 4 heart attacks by 24.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Frank_Wx wrote:crippo84 wrote:What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?
Cold and dry is the worst!!!!!! Especially in a pattern that SHOULD produce.
So I will take the terrible pattern because I can go to bed at night knowing the next 2-3 weeks will be snowless.
Just come up to Albany where there there is a several inch snow pack. Also, snow/ice may mix in here this weekend.
Also, the seasonal snow total here is over 35"
![Wink](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_wink.gif)
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Cute kids, about the age I work with. And the face that that looks like 5-7 inches and that to you is ALOT of snow is a testament to what our winteres have been like recently.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Oh go fly a kite...LOL jkMath23x7 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:crippo84 wrote:What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?
Cold and dry is the worst!!!!!! Especially in a pattern that SHOULD produce.
So I will take the terrible pattern because I can go to bed at night knowing the next 2-3 weeks will be snowless.
Just come up to Albany where there there is a several inch snow pack. Also, snow/ice may mix in here this weekend.
Also, the seasonal snow total here is over 35"![]()
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
As I always say, SNOW IN NOVEMBER, CRAP WINTER!
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Just read about Gefs pointing to a possible SSW?, another cold and snowy March in the cards? My last 12+" storm was March 14, 2017. Got 17" that storm...
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Got too much variation run to run so nothing to believe. although this look is favored given the pattern. I mean look at the time frame of 2-3 days before. You have confluence along the coast meaning HP set up shop to our N and a cold air source. If the N piece circled is a little slower and or the S piece circled got out ahead of the N piece and the two phased some then it could turn this up the coast. as of now this ust slides well south of us. Of course the wave spacing between the confluence and these two pieces needs to be spread out a little to allow heights to raise out front but its possible. If you look at the last 4 GFS runs these features are very different from run to run, so obv take it all with a grain of salt, but this look verbatim is actually fairly close to a snow storm up the mid atlantic. Jus sayin. And course if that were to happen what happens to the energy for super bowl weekend would be vastly diff than what you show...perhaps
![Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 22 Gfs12](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/gfs12.png)
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:
Got too much variation run to run so nothing to believe. although this look is favored given the pattern. I mean look at the time frame of 2-3 days before. You have confluence along the coast meaning HP set up shop to our N and a cold air source. If the N piece circled is a little slower and or the S piece circled got out ahead of the N piece and the two phased some then it could turn this up the coast. as of now this ust slides well south of us. Of course the wave spacing between the confluence and these two pieces needs to be spread out a little to allow heights to raise out front but its possible. If you look at the last 4 GFS runs these features are very different from run to run, so obv take it all with a grain of salt, but this look verbatim is actually fairly close to a snow storm up the mid atlantic. Jus sayin. And course if that were to happen what happens to the energy for super bowl weekend would be vastly diff than what you show...perhaps
yes. GEFS really doesn't look anything like this. More tongue and cheek on my part as I would never trust an op model 8 days out. There is a nice ridge on the west coast indicative of a +PNA which will make it pretty tough to cut like what GFS operational showed. Thermal profiles actually are not too bad, just good enough as per GEFS as we still have the +EPO. To your point before this would be thread the needle with the NAM state. But in February +PNA has a pretty good correlation to significant snow in our area. I expect bupkis though.
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
[quote="heehaw453"][quote="sroc4"]
I never took it as if you were serious. I was merely pointing out the threat of two separate systems or time frames to watch as per the 12z gfs verbatim Jan30th-31st and the 1st-2nd. As far as the time frame Feb1-2 that we have been speaking about along along the trends have been that the energy is seemingly undermodeled in the longer and md term. As we get in closer the energy trends stronger which in turn raises heights out ahead; with nothing down stream helping defelect it off the coast to the south the stronger storm cuts. Like you said it is what it is. We will need the perfect wave spacing for the 2nd to work out..juyst the right amount of confluence to supress heights long enough to get it to the coast before the NE turn. Baby bear..juuuussst right. Not counting on it
heehaw453 wrote:Thank you sir may have another! This is just comical. Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.
yes. GEFS really doesn't look anything like this. More tongue and cheek on my part as I would never trust an op model 8 days out. There is a nice ridge on the west coast indicative of a +PNA which will make it pretty tough to cut like what GFS operational showed. Thermal profiles actually are not too bad, just good enough as per GEFS as we still have the +EPO. To your point before this would be thread the needle with the NAM state. But in February +PNA has a pretty good correlation to significant snow in our area. I expect bupkis though.
I never took it as if you were serious. I was merely pointing out the threat of two separate systems or time frames to watch as per the 12z gfs verbatim Jan30th-31st and the 1st-2nd. As far as the time frame Feb1-2 that we have been speaking about along along the trends have been that the energy is seemingly undermodeled in the longer and md term. As we get in closer the energy trends stronger which in turn raises heights out ahead; with nothing down stream helping defelect it off the coast to the south the stronger storm cuts. Like you said it is what it is. We will need the perfect wave spacing for the 2nd to work out..juyst the right amount of confluence to supress heights long enough to get it to the coast before the NE turn. Baby bear..juuuussst right. Not counting on it
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Oh the HORROR,LOL.HOWEVER, this has been the pattern since early November and this map has credibility the way things have been going.Let's hope Doc's thread the needle scenario takes place.Odds are against it, though.JMHO.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Maybe because this is showing on the Op right now this far out is good news Lol. Hopefully some changes ahead?
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:Thank you sir may have another! This is just comical. Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.
yes. GEFS really doesn't look anything like this. More tongue and cheek on my part as I would never trust an op model 8 days out. There is a nice ridge on the west coast indicative of a +PNA which will make it pretty tough to cut like what GFS operational showed. Thermal profiles actually are not too bad, just good enough as per GEFS as we still have the +EPO. To your point before this would be thread the needle with the NAM state. But in February +PNA has a pretty good correlation to significant snow in our area. I expect bupkis though.
I never took it as if you were serious. I was merely pointing out the threat of two separate systems or time frames to watch as per the 12z gfs verbatim Jan30th-31st and the 1st-2nd. As far as the time frame Feb1-2 that we have been speaking about along along the trends have been that the energy is seemingly undermodeled in the longer and md term. As we get in closer the energy trends stronger which in turn raises heights out ahead; with nothing down stream helping defelect it off the coast to the south the stronger storm cuts. Like you said it is what it is. We will need the perfect wave spacing for the 2nd to work out..juyst the right amount of confluence to supress heights long enough to get it to the coast before the NE turn. Baby bear..juuuussst right. Not counting on it
To your point with the confluence shoving the storm over the waters before it bombs. Euro doing that basically nukes the area. That's the path to a snowstorm. The low must get shoved to the coast before those heights rise. That's one hell of a look.
![Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 22 Euro18](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/euro18.png)
![Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 22 Euro5010](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/euro5010.png)
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
That snowmap is needed not 8 days out but 8 hours out like we had in 2013-14, 2014-15 with our storms. Like this weekend, went for a SECS in the HV to a driving rainstorm.
Learning more and more the WPO & EPO is important for our winters to be winter.
This next storm has WNS maps showing a massive cutter to Buffalo, quite possible in this crap pattern to a great snowstorm to flip things around. Possible yes, but likely not placing any money on that bet until 12 hours out!! Sorry but the trends this winter have been bad overall as we get closer to game time.
Learning more and more the WPO & EPO is important for our winters to be winter.
This next storm has WNS maps showing a massive cutter to Buffalo, quite possible in this crap pattern to a great snowstorm to flip things around. Possible yes, but likely not placing any money on that bet until 12 hours out!! Sorry but the trends this winter have been bad overall as we get closer to game time.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
Yes I meant with good and no people..we had plenty of food for us and we had neighbor s over..lol I had cooked for 25..lol
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
It is fun to look at! But I don't believe it unless it happens.
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Re: Banter Thread 5.0
So much for that "long locked in" winter pattern we were talking about weeks ago.
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