Re: Banter Thread 5.0

[Grselig]

Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less.  Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often.  Going to bed without back pain in a long time.

Jman, glad to hear everything went well. Hope you're feeling better. We'll try to get you a good windstorm to celebrate your recovery!

nah I want a snowstorm.

That's good news!

[crippo84]

What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?

[sroc4]

So this popped up as a memory from 2014 on my news feed on FB.  My first reaction was a deep sigh followed by the thought..."Man look at all that snow....and...look at how little my babies were."  

Yup priorities are in check....another deep sigh at the lack of snow

[dkodgis]

Aren’t they just cutiepies!

[Frank_Wx]

What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?

Cold and dry is the worst!!!!!! Especially in a pattern that SHOULD produce.

So I will take the terrible pattern because I can go to bed at night knowing the next 2-3 weeks will be snowless.

[jmanley32]

Geee....my negativity doesnt seem to be so misplaced now does it? I COULD now complain about all of you making all these negative posts but I won't cuz thats not me.  Now you all see why I was so frustrated, I do not see getting over 10 inches this year IF that. LOL I think my head is gonna spin off. I just found out today that along with my shoulder having some arthritic issues I not have disks in my neck that are not aligned correctly....I swear it never ends. So onto the neck specialist.  Good news is that I met me out of pocket maximum (only $1000) so all medical till dec 31st 2020 will cost me nothing in network. I intend to take full advantage of that and get a lot taken care of including getting back to physical therapy. At least I have a lot to keep my mind off the weather. Yes I know doc CP, I am too young for this, well I dunno why but its happening to me at 38. Some medical issues cannot be explained at a early age, my sisters ex had 4 heart attacks by 24.

[Math23x7]

What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?

Cold and dry is the worst!!!!!! Especially in a pattern that SHOULD produce.

So I will take the terrible pattern because I can go to bed at night knowing the next 2-3 weeks will be snowless.

Just come up to Albany where there there is a several inch snow pack. Also, snow/ice may mix in here this weekend.

Also, the seasonal snow total here is over 35"

[jmanley32]

So this popped up as a memory from 2014 on my news feed on FB.  My first reaction was a deep sigh followed by the thought..."Man look at all that snow....and...look at how little my babies were."  

Yup priorities are in check....another deep sigh at the lack of snow

Cute kids, about the age I work with. And the face that that looks like 5-7 inches and that to you is ALOT of snow is a testament to what our winteres have been like recently.

[jmanley32]

What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?

Cold and dry is the worst!!!!!! Especially in a pattern that SHOULD produce.

So I will take the terrible pattern because I can go to bed at night knowing the next 2-3 weeks will be snowless.

Just come up to Albany where there there is a several inch snow pack.  Also, snow/ice may mix in here this weekend.

Also, the seasonal snow total here is over 35"

Oh go fly a kite...LOL jk

[mikeypizano]

As I always say, SNOW IN NOVEMBER, CRAP WINTER!

[Radz]

Just read about Gefs pointing to a possible SSW?, another cold and snowy March in the cards? My last 12+" storm was March 14, 2017. Got 17" that storm...

[heehaw453]

Thank you sir may have another!  This is just comical.  Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.

[nutleyblizzard]

Thank you sir may have another!  This is just comical.  Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.

Of my 53 years on Earth I can't remember being aggravated over a winter season more than this one.

[sroc4]

Thank you sir may have another!  This is just comical.  Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.

Got too much variation run to run so nothing to believe.  although this look is favored given the pattern.  I mean look at the time frame of 2-3 days before.   You have confluence along the coast meaning HP set up shop to our N and a cold air source.  If the N piece circled is a little slower and or the S piece circled got out ahead of the N piece and the two phased some then it could turn this up the coast.  as of now this ust slides well south of us.  Of course the wave spacing between the confluence and these two pieces needs to be spread out a little to allow heights to raise out front but its possible.  If you look at the last 4 GFS runs these features are very different from run to run, so obv take it all with a grain of salt, but this look verbatim is actually fairly close to a snow storm up the mid atlantic.  Jus sayin.  And course if that were to happen what happens to the energy for super bowl weekend would be vastly diff than what you show...perhaps

[heehaw453]

Thank you sir may have another!  This is just comical.  Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.

Got too much variation run to run so nothing to believe.  although this look is favored given the pattern.  I mean look at the time frame of 2-3 days before.   You have confluence along the coast meaning HP set up shop to our N and a cold air source.  If the N piece circled is a little slower and or the S piece circled got out ahead of the N piece and the two phased some then it could turn this up the coast.  as of now this ust slides well south of us.  Of course the wave spacing between the confluence and these two pieces needs to be spread out a little to allow heights to raise out front but its possible.  If you look at the last 4 GFS runs these features are very different from run to run, so obv take it all with a grain of salt, but this look verbatim is actually fairly close to a snow storm up the mid atlantic.  Jus sayin.  And course if that were to happen what happens to the energy for super bowl weekend would be vastly diff than what you show...perhaps

yes. GEFS really doesn't look anything like this. More tongue and cheek on my part as I would never trust an op model 8 days out. There is a nice ridge on the west coast indicative of a +PNA which will make it pretty tough to cut like what GFS operational showed. Thermal profiles actually are not too bad, just good enough as per GEFS as we still have the +EPO. To your point before this would be thread the needle with the NAM state. But in February +PNA has a pretty good correlation to significant snow in our area. I expect bupkis though.

[sroc4]

[quote="heehaw453"][quote="sroc4"]

Thank you sir may have another!  This is just comical.  Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.



yes.  GEFS really doesn't look anything like this.  More tongue and cheek on my part as I would never trust an op model 8 days out.  There is a nice ridge on the west coast indicative of a +PNA which will make it pretty tough to cut like what GFS operational showed.  Thermal profiles actually are not too bad, just good enough as per GEFS as we still have the +EPO.  To your point before this would be thread the needle with the NAM state.  But in February +PNA has a pretty good correlation to significant snow in our area.  I expect bupkis though.

I never took it as if you were serious. I was merely pointing out the threat of two separate systems or time frames to watch as per the 12z gfs verbatim Jan30th-31st and the 1st-2nd. As far as the time frame Feb1-2 that we have been speaking about along along the trends have been that the energy is seemingly undermodeled in the longer and md term. As we get in closer the energy trends stronger which in turn raises heights out ahead; with nothing down stream helping defelect it off the coast to the south the stronger storm cuts. Like you said it is what it is. We will need the perfect wave spacing for the 2nd to work out..juyst the right amount of confluence to supress heights long enough to get it to the coast before the NE turn. Baby bear..juuuussst right. Not counting on it

[docstox12]

Thank you sir may have another!  This is just comical.  Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.

Oh the HORROR,LOL.HOWEVER, this has been the pattern since early November and this map has credibility the way things have been going.Let's hope Doc's thread the needle scenario takes place.Odds are against it, though.JMHO.

[richb521]

Maybe because this is showing on the Op right now this far out is good news Lol. Hopefully some changes ahead?

[heehaw453]

Thank you sir may have another!  This is just comical.  Won't even bother to look at ensembles or 500mb. My guess is this surface representation is just about what to expect.



yes.  GEFS really doesn't look anything like this.  More tongue and cheek on my part as I would never trust an op model 8 days out.  There is a nice ridge on the west coast indicative of a +PNA which will make it pretty tough to cut like what GFS operational showed.  Thermal profiles actually are not too bad, just good enough as per GEFS as we still have the +EPO.  To your point before this would be thread the needle with the NAM state.  But in February +PNA has a pretty good correlation to significant snow in our area.  I expect bupkis though.

I never took it as if you were serious.  I was merely pointing out the threat of two separate systems or time frames to watch as per the 12z gfs verbatim  Jan30th-31st and the 1st-2nd. As far as the time frame Feb1-2 that we have been speaking about along along the trends have been that the energy is seemingly undermodeled in the longer and md term.  As we get in closer the energy trends stronger which in turn raises heights out ahead; with nothing down stream helping defelect it off the coast to the south the stronger storm cuts.  Like you said it is what it is.  We will need the perfect wave spacing for the 2nd to work out..juyst the right amount of confluence to supress heights long enough to get it to the coast before the NE turn.  Baby bear..juuuussst right.  Not counting on it

To your point with the confluence shoving the storm over the waters before it bombs.  Euro doing that basically nukes the area.  That's the path to a snowstorm.  The low must get shoved to the coast before those heights rise.  That's one hell of a look.

[nutleyblizzard]

If this were to happen on Super Bowl Sunday I would have a house full of food for my guests that would not be able to show up and I'd still be grinning ear to ear!

[weatherwatchermom]

If this were to happen on Super Bowl Sunday I would have a house full of food for my guests that would not be able to show up and I'd still be grinning ear to ear!

That was us for the boxing day storm!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

If this were to happen on Super Bowl Sunday I would have a house full of food for my guests that would not be able to show up and I'd still be grinning ear to ear!

That was us for the boxing day storm!!

Yes, but times two.

[amugs]

That snowmap is needed not 8 days out but 8 hours out like we had in 2013-14, 2014-15 with our storms. Like this weekend, went for a SECS in the HV to a driving rainstorm.
Learning more and more the WPO & EPO is important for our winters to be winter.
This next storm has WNS maps showing a massive cutter to Buffalo, quite possible in this crap pattern to a great snowstorm to flip things around. Possible yes, but likely not placing any money on that bet until 12 hours out!! Sorry but the trends this winter have been bad overall as we get closer to game time.

[jaydoy]

Why can’t we get a Jan 2016 storm I experienced this just before I moved here permanently from the U.K., I thought this would be a regular occurrence here

[weatherwatchermom]

If this were to happen on Super Bowl Sunday I would have a house full of food for my guests that would not be able to show up and I'd still be grinning ear to ear!

That was us for the boxing day storm!!

Yes, but times two.

Yes I meant with good and no people..we had plenty of food for us and we had neighbor s over..lol I had cooked for 25..lol

[Grselig]

It is fun to look at! But I don't believe it unless it happens.

[HectorO]

So much for that "long locked in" winter pattern we were talking about weeks ago.

[Sponsored content]