2019 TROPICAL SEASON

From Phillipe Papin
I'm watching #Dorian today if it begins to move due W or even has a S component of motion.

The last few #ECMWF ensemble cycles continue slowing down Dorian's trk, w/ an increasing # of members showing a SW motion in the Bahamas.

A direct Florida landfall is still very possible.

The track has shifted A LOT with NHC cone the past few days so anything is still possible. As I told my wife's Aunt dont let your guard down and prepare - an ounce of prevention is worth its weight in Gold!!!

Also from Philippe:

"This is getting to the point where using the GEFS guidance becomes dangerous. The prob. of a Florida landfall based on its latest guidance would be inferred to be zero.

That is not correct, the GEFS just does not have enough members/spread to show all the possible outcomes. Not to mention that the GEFS is based off the old GFS-legacy model and won't be upgraded till 2020. This might sound harsh, but I've found it best to just ignore its guidance in its entirety."

Yes no one can let their guard down. I know he is eventually supposed to go ots but I also think it's possible he makes it far enough north to pose at least some outer impacts up here next week. Heck he has already made his own decisions such as missing Hispaniola by a lot. Who's to say he also doesn't miss the kick ots.

Report post
Posted 10 minutes ago
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 16:53Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 23
Observation Number: 27

A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 16:32:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.03N 73.67W
B. Center Fix Location: 240 statute miles (386 km) to the ENE (74°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,617m (8,586ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 946mb (27.94 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 9kts (From the SE at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 113kts (130.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) of center fix at 16:30:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 288° at 108kts (From the WNW at 124.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) of center fix at 16:30:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 140kts (161.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NE (37°) of center fix at 16:35:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 125° at 135kts (From the SE at 155.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NE (39°) of center fix at 16:35:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 135kts (~ 155.4mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 16:35:30Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)


WOW!!

Thoughts on this from the powers that be?

SoulSingMG wrote:Thoughts on this from the powers that be?

see I don't think we are zero out the picture.

Guys, we are not out of the woods there is a LOT of time with this and it will be painstaking as Heavy D climbs the coast.
The ULL could tug this back towards the coast and cause a New England landfall brushing us (possibly).
Nothing is off the table but LOTS of time here.
Lets see what it does the next two days

Longgggg way to go before I breathe easy and celebrate, Jman, but I’d also be lying if I said that I wasn’t getting more and more excited with each passing hour and model run haha

rb924119 wrote:Longgggg way to go before I breathe easy and celebrate, Jman, but I’d also be lying if I said that I wasn’t getting more and more excited with each passing hour and model run haha

about your being right you mean?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Longgggg way to go before I breathe easy and celebrate, Jman, but I’d also be lying if I said that I wasn’t getting more and more excited with each passing hour and model run haha

about your being right you mean?

Yeah haha I’m not counting any chickens yet, just keeping my fingers crossed lol

"Hearing" sooo much chatter on social media of Dorian no longer being a threat to the US. I find that perspective to be disconcerting, not to mention very premature.

UKIE Ens

aiannone wrote:
UKIE Ens

This model/ensemble has consistently been on the southwestern flank of all other guidance, but when it’s the UKMET, idk how I feel about just “tossing” it under that same premise.

Also, EPS Mean looks like the Op, but I don’t have the spaghettis yet.

Thanks for posting those, as well, Alex!

Boyz,

Here is a latest update on the ground from my cousins who are evacuating from BrevarsdCouty.



Heading  north to cola to on Fla Tpke. We have passed at least 5 miles of utility trucks, ambulances and nat guard trucks heading south.

Good, let it go out to sea. I have family across the entire state. No need to want for this to make landfall. These things are devastating.

The WAR has been and is very much under modelled and the euro picked up o this at the 12z and GFS is showing this as well.
It will move west and then turn N, how far west will then determine SE coast landfall and possibly a FLA strike/brush.
Don't let you guard down
Rayno has been emphatic on that thisis NOT OTS. He has shown the what and why for this.
Very interesting to say the least

HWRF makes landfall now. Was OTS

aiannone wrote:
HWRF makes landfall now. Was OTS

Was just about to post about this. Anyone letting their guard down in Florida had better think again. It looks like the HWRF landfalls Dorian around Cocoa Beach on that run.

Still intensifying, down to 940 mb as of current reconnaissance, moving NW

SoulSingMG wrote:

aiannone wrote:
HWRF makes landfall now. Was OTS

Was just about to post about this. Anyone letting their guard down in Florida had better think again. It looks like the HWRF landfalls Dorian around Cocoa Beach on that run.

Do you know when this all might be happening.. will it be Monday..I have family at Disney won't leave say they heard the storm will miss Florida

Dunnzoo wrote:Still intensifying, down to 940 mb as of current reconnaissance, moving NW

Are you still down in Seaside

The hwrf slams my in-laws in Flagler beach there. And they have done nothing to prep their new home. If this happens god help them but I still think this will miss.

don't wanna take anything away from dorien coverage..but has anyone checked out the system off the africian coast?right now its a 10% chance of development next 5 days,and one other one in central africa(the one surrounded by thunderstorms)

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Still intensifying, down to 940 mb as of current reconnaissance, moving NW

Are you still down in Seaside

Hi Joanne,

No, came home today. I think I saw you responding to Joe Cioffi I think on FB and messaged you

Dunnzoo wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:Still intensifying, down to 940 mb as of current reconnaissance, moving NW

Are you still down in Seaside

Hi Joanne,

No, came home today. I think I saw you responding to Joe Cioffi I think on FB and messaged you

drats can't find your response..was hoping you were here to meet we will be here until Tuesday..I know this is banter you can move if you want..just keeping an eye on things..we have a 3 hour ocean ride to the tip of Sandy Hook