November 2019 Observations and Discussion

WWUS41 KOKX 172112
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

NJZ002-NYZ067-180915-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WW.Y.0012.191118T0800Z-191118T1500Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-
412 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a
light glaze.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York,
Orange County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are
possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

My friends in Wanaque and Wst Milford reporting snow and stickage to grass and colder surfaces

Happy To Report a dusting of Snow in Stillwater Nj at 1190 feet altitude,the  snow is White and sticking to cars and elevated things!
This is the third dusting we have had here this year unfortunately I was in Ft Lee at my other house for the other 2 snow dusting. I have noticed the deer this year are Very dark and have VERY THICK coats of fur, my Gran Pa always said that means Lots of Snow that Winter, We Can only Hope ! Going hiking on the Appalachian Trail in the morning hopefully more snow up on top of the mountain! Wishing everyone a safe and Snow Filled Winter !

32 degrees, light drizzle but nothing freezing as of yet.Took out garbage at end of the long driveway just now.

rb924119 wrote:Everybody north and west of I-95 don’t sleep on this system Monday night.........I can’t believe how dead this forum is right now lol there are flurries happening across the northern half of this forum’s coverage right now that were unpredicted and not a peep. I can’t believe it. Maybe I’m the one that’s going crazy and seeing things that aren’t real. Idk.

rb, I hope you are right but right now NWS is calling for maybe 1/2 inch of snow up by me tonight.Right now, it stopped drizzling, just cloudy and cold.Calm winds.

rb924119 wrote:Everybody north and west of I-95 don’t sleep on this system Monday night.........I can’t believe how dead this forum is right now lol there are flurries happening across the northern half of this forum’s coverage right now that were unpredicted and not a peep. I can’t believe it. Maybe I’m the one that’s going crazy and seeing things that aren’t real. Idk.

I wouldn't even give up yet for the coast. There will be some cold around until the trough lifts out. We just need the PNA to cooperate.

I could get some snow tomorrow morning here in Albany:

40* Cloudy. Rain has moved out; should be a nice day. Temps seem around normal most of the next week or so although I’m keeping an eye on Saturday evening for some people seeing flakes as that’s figuring to be the coldest day and we could have some precipitation that evening.

Well, that's two snow busts now in the past week.Last week NWS had me for an inch and I only saw some light flurries.Last night they mentioned at least an inch and not a flake today.Hope this does not become a pattern!
Cloudy, calm.

From my apartment in the Albany region earlier this morning.

docstox12 wrote:Well, that's two snow busts now in the past week.Last week NWS had me for an inch and I only saw some light flurries.Last night they mentioned at least an inch and not a flake today.Hope this does not become a pattern!
Cloudy, calm.

And it begins!

Also, going into Thanksgiving week was looking like it could have been cold, but looks milder now, with temps on Thanksgiving nearing the 50 degree mark. Unlike the record we set last year at the parade start temps.

docstox12 wrote:Well, that's two snow busts now in the past week.Last week NWS had me for an inch and I only saw some light flurries.Last night they mentioned at least an inch and not a flake today.Hope this does not become a pattern!
Cloudy, calm.

For my area there was never anything but rain in the forecast so I got what was expected. I never saw much chance of snow out of this for anyone -- except for Math who is now living so far north he is practically in Canada.

Watching this weekend storm and Tuesday storm to see of we can get some white gold mood flakes again. It is close for N&W posters here. Coastal plain is wet.
An TY Jonny Masiello is harping on a fundamental change to the NAO for winter that has begun. We are seeing models starting g to see such. If he nails this then things could get interesting for us. He is sold on a brutal stretch from late Dec through mid February.

rb924119 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Well, that's two snow busts now in the past week.Last week NWS had me for an inch and I only saw some light flurries.Last night they mentioned at least an inch and not a flake today.Hope this does not become a pattern!
Cloudy, calm.

Really, doc? I picked up 1-2” here in Fishkill, and I’m sure the hills picked up more than that because they were snow-capped all day today. Ours melted before I even woke up at 11, but I saw it pre-dawn when I briefly woke up.

Hey, that was good rb, congrats.Nothing here though, and if there was the Mayor of the Hudson Valley, CP, would have posted as such,LOL.Anyway, good call for some areas N and W.

Sneaky little swfe showing up for Friday into Sat. Check latest NAM and GFS

sroc4 wrote:Sneaky little swfe showing up for Friday into Sat.  Check latest NAM and GFS

For someone unfamiliar with weather terms, could you explain what swfe stands for

Southwest flow event. But I had to look it up

Thanks Damian. I tried googling it without much luck.

dkodgis wrote:Southwest flow event. But I had to look it up

Bingo. Sorry. It was an impulse post after quickly looking into modeling. Temps are marginal plus the majority of the area is on the northern frindge of the precip. Maybe some mood flakes if the precip shield can expand far enough north and the frontal boundary remains far enough south. In other words baby bear....just right.