Re: 12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

by snowlover78 Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:17 pm

OMG its all white out conditions here. Heavy snow right now with wind

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:19 pm

snowlover78 wrote:OMG its all white out conditions here. Heavy snow right now with wind

WOW

by **billg315** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Got flurries. Temp on phone says 31. I'm willing to bet it's lower. I'll have check local station on wx underground later. Doing lightbrite with my daughter. Anyone remember those?

No. Is that what you accused me of using for my snow-map earlier?? lol
no and I was kidding though the program you used did look like water colors. A light bride is a board with holes you put a paper on it and you put the see through pegs on it and then turn the light on and the picture lights up.

Yeah, I know you were joking. I had to do it in a hurry before work so I didn't have time to make it look good. Hopefully its close to accurate though.

by **dsix85** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:20 pm

Frank-does that dry slot fill in?

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:20 pm

It is now snowing moderately. Sticking to everything. Cars the most. My daughter is so excited lol, future member : )

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:20 pm

So I first want to be clear, that these observations can change, but as I stand at 4 PM, the atmospheric environment with this storm IS colder.
— NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) December 16, 2020

by **SENJsnowman** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:21 pm

In the last 30 min, r/s line has crept a bit N back to Belmar on the Coast, BUT has also crept East, now across Rte 70 into Lakehurst/Toms River about 7-8 miles due West of me.

by **billg315** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I think CAD is over powering the warmth to this point. The real threat to lower snow amounts may not be mid-level warmth or mixing, it is this dry slot. Racing N-NE.

Would not be the first time I/we were done in by a dry slot. A lot of heavy snow lined up before that gets here, so let's enjoy those heavy bands first and see how it progresses.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:22 pm

frank 638 wrote:
amugs wrote:SNJ reports outside Philly getting 2-3/4" rates and wind driven blizzard like conditions.
please bring this here

I"M FRIGGIN WORKIN ON IT PEEPS ONLY SO MUCH ONE MAN CAN DO HERE YA KNOW - DOC RALLY THE BAND!!!!!!! (CP, SNOWIE, YOU AND ME) WHERE GETTIN BACK TO TOGETHER!!

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:25 pm

billg315 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think CAD is over powering the warmth to this point. The real threat to lower snow amounts may not be mid-level warmth or mixing, it is this dry slot. Racing N-NE.

Would not be the first time I/we were done in by a dry slot. A lot of heavy snow lined up before that gets here, so let's enjoy those heavy bands first and see how it progresses.

Thats a insanely heavy band to south jersey and i presume its moving north, have look at radar.

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:27 pm

I think you are getting consolidation of this surface storm a bit more south easterly. Just have to hope that the mid level storms stay more SE. I honestly think the global models GFS and Euro may have handled this better than mesos.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Pressu10

by **SENJsnowman** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:30 pm

Anyone from the Hook on south, things could get very interesting!!

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 65442910

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:30 pm

Big baroclinic zone here.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Barocl12

by snowlover78 Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:31 pm

This must be a heaviest band which we experiencing here at the moment. Easily it will be 2-3 inch per hour zone. Whiteout. Its all coming up north. I don’t see at all any warm air creeping in. We may stay all snow here. Keeping the fingers crossed.

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:31 pm

Closest temp in Yonkers not far from here 25 degrees, real feel 25 degrees. Wind has picked up a bit. Snowing steadily.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:31 pm

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 GEWL8vaS2jlgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg

Look at that heavy heavy yellow 30-35dbz band of just puking snow

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:33 pm

snowlover78 wrote:This must be a heaviest band which we experiencing here at the moment. Easily it will be 2-3 inch per hour zone. Whiteout. Its all coming up north. I don’t see at all any warm air creeping in. We may stay all snow here. Keeping the fingers crossed.

that would be fantastic for majority on the board, if somehow we can fill in that snow hole we will be crushed, we still wil lget impressive amounts even with the snow hole as look how much is in front of it.

by pkmak Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:35 pm

by **dkodgis** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:35 pm

So far...nothing up here in northern Orange county

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:36 pm

23.7/22

SN+ Frequent 35 mph gusts now. Visibility < 1/2 mile

by DAYBLAZER Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:39 pm

amugs wrote:
Look at that heavy heavy yellow 30-35dbz band of just puking snow

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Burgan10

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:39 pm

We're at a critical moment. The low has to soon decide does it stay N-NW or N-NE. I overlaid the most recent GFS, NAM and HRRR tracks on the current observations. For some locations, this is the difference between 3 inches or 10, 6 inches or 12, 12 inches or 18, etc. The 18z NAM was an absolute whopper with blitzing snow, and it happens to be in between the GFS/HRRR.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Capture

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Capture

Meanwhile, an impressive upper level jet streak has developed over New England. Between this feature and the HP, I feel pretty good about the low taking a more eastern track. I think the GFS is way off, but time will tell.

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Path

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Path

by **billg315** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:40 pm

Just looking at some video of I-95 from Philly up into Bucks Co. PA. Snow covered and moving very slow. That should be headed to a highway near you if you are in central/north Jersey.

by **dkodgis** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:41 pm

Is the storm sssllooowww moving?

by **amugs** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:42 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:42 pm

Latest HRRR

12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations - Page 14 Sn10_acc.us_ne

by **jmanley32** Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:We're at a critical moment. The low has to soon decide does it stay N-NW or N-NE. I overlaid the most recent GFS, NAM and HRRR tracks on the current observations. For some locations, this is the difference between 3 inches or 10, 6 inches or 12, 12 inches or 18, etc. The 18z NAM was an absolute whopper with blitzing snow, and it happens to be in between the GFS/HRRR.

Meanwhile, an impressive upper level jet streak has developed over New England. Between this feature and the HP, I feel pretty good about the low taking a more eastern track. I think the GFS is way off, but time will tell.

I just looked at 3km nam and it barely gives most of the area 6 inches, am i missing something? Ok why is 12km so different? I thought these were the same model just different resolutions?

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