12/16-12/17 Godzilla: Final Snow Map & Obsevations

The 850s temperatures have cooled and seeing a CAD signature again. Let's see if the warm air can get flushed out of the column.

By the way, the 'x' is where 12z GFS had the low at one pont. Uhm...yea.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Need to watch this in the morning. Shown on all guidance. Area of very heavy snow along the coast. There is still dry slotting over those stuck between the coast and the mega frontogenic band across NY

I think that’s what has developed now over coastal NJ, Frank.

Hmm, maybe. But this time stamp is 12z (00z NAM)

Yeah, I know. I’m saying it’s slow haha because you have to remember that’s not an instantaneous map at 12z, it’s accumulated precip type up to 12z from whatever the last time step was (last hour, three hours, six hours....), so the precip is moving through that image. If you extrapolate our radar out, it’s 3:30z now, if that’s a three-hour frame then it’s starts to be valid at 09z. 5.5 hours to go from southern NJ to pivoting off NYC is within reason. See what I’m saying?

Precip has shut off for now. Hopefully it fills in

rb924119 wrote:

2004blackwrx wrote:4.75 inches. it snow 1.5 inches in the 30 minutes or. 1.5 inches per beer

That’s a good ratio haha

It is 22 degrees so should be good ratios all night.

billg315 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Too early to call bust just yet. It's hard to get a read on this one! Radar looks different every 20 minutes with new convective bands popping up and dry spots trying to fill in.

Frank, some of the short range models (HRRR) and "futurecast" type models seem to show the precip largely filling in and continuing overnight. The radar doesn't really support that right now, but - as you point out - can change/fill in. Do you have a sense if they are onto something, or are just out to lunch?

As an aside, I don't really care if this is a technical "bust" right now. I have about 6" or so here and it blitzed snow for several hours this afternoon and this evening. That is so far superior to anything from last winter that (and especially to get it a week before Christmas) I will not complain if I end up with only 6 or 7".

Around 2am the HRRR does have NNJ filled in again. Precip type will be interesting. It will be a battle between NAM and HRRR (NAM is image I posted above valid for 7am)

2am



3am



4am



5am

Does anyone have the radar type which indicates snow/sleet (the one which usually has the yellow line to indicate sleet)?

19.6° moderate snow

6.8 inches as of 10 pm measurement, intensity is down quite a bit after picking up 3.3 inches between 8-9pm down to 1.3 inches between 9-10pm.

Unlike Billg I will be so freaking pissed in the morning if my yardstick shows any numbers below 12. That was my minimum happiness quotient for this storm.

Heading to bed, watching that dry slot is making me ill.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Need to watch this in the morning. Shown on all guidance. Area of very heavy snow along the coast. There is still dry slotting over those stuck between the coast and the mega frontogenic band across NY

I think that’s what has developed now over coastal NJ, Frank.

Hmm, maybe. But this time stamp is 12z (00z NAM)

Yeah, I know. I’m saying it’s slow haha

Wow, that would be nuts. Curious how this plays out. So when the low gets off the coast, are you expecting just one big dry slot with no precip on the N-NW side?

Math23x7 wrote:Does anyone have the radar type which indicates snow/sleet (the one which usually has the yellow line to indicate sleet)?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Need to watch this in the morning. Shown on all guidance. Area of very heavy snow along the coast. There is still dry slotting over those stuck between the coast and the mega frontogenic band across NY

I think that’s what has developed now over coastal NJ, Frank.

Hmm, maybe. But this time stamp is 12z (00z NAM)

Yeah, I know. I’m saying it’s slow haha

Wow, that would be nuts. Curious how this plays out. So when the low gets off the coast, are you expecting just one big dry slot with no precip on the N-NW side?

Sorry Frank, I edited the comment to which you replied after you posted this haha I’ll answer separately in case you want to follow up lol

20 with heavy snow, about 6 OTG

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:19.6° moderate snow

6.8 inches as of 10 pm measurement, intensity is down quite a bit after picking up 3.3 inches between 8-9pm down to 1.3 inches between 9-10pm.

Unlike Billg I will be so freaking pissed in the morning if my yardstick shows any numbers below 12. That was my minimum happiness quotient for this storm.  

Heading to bed, watching that dry slot is making me ill.

I think you will get to 12.

I actually feel good about my snow map for most places, but the areas that bust will bust hard. And I think you already know where that will be........

Snow and sleet picking up here again. This is the steadiest its been for a couple hours.

About 5 inchjes here still snowing when I was out 26.6 degrees. If I go way back to Nov. I have already exceeded my expectation for the entire year lol, hoping to get more but I do not see this getting up to a foot unless we have some crazy bands come through, the HRRR shows hours of heavy sleet for me, but that could change as many things have been during the storm. I do not expect power issues it is a very light fluffy snow, not wet like expected, likely cuz its colder. easier to shovel but also drifts.

Frank_Wx wrote:Need to watch this in the morning. Shown on all guidance. Area of very heavy snow along the coast. There is still dry slotting over those stuck between the coast and the mega frontogenic band across NY

I'm looking at the most recent 0Z NAM and don't see this?

ugh that dry slot looks horrible but feel like its status quo for the way things have been.

To answer your above question, though, as asked verbatim, I’m not sure how far inland that band will actually make it, and can actually see it literally stopping AT the coast as the storm pulls away. Reason being that while you have awesome frontogenesis at 925/850, your 700 and 500 lows will be overhead, with any jet support long removed for our area. So basically any forcing for ascent that you have in the lower levels will essentially Peter out the further west that air goes because it’s heading under your mid-level lows, which if you remember from last night, are non-divergent. So there’s no forcing for ascent (or descent) beneath them. It’s just no-man’s land. And when you consider the drier air that will start being entrained from the top down, I don’t really think it stands a chance inland from the immediate coast. After all of that, yes, I feel like it’s going to essentially be one big dry slot except for that relatively small max and then obviously the main band up north, which I think is more mixed precip than snow, for the reasons I mentioned in previous posts.

billg315 wrote:Snow and sleet picking up here again. This is the steadiest its been for a couple hours.

It did that here for half and hour...now nothing...wind picked up a tiny bit

billg315 wrote:Snow and sleet picking up here again. This is the steadiest its been for a couple hours.

It did that here for half and hour...now nothing...wind picked up a tiny bit

Hope I am not in the bust area, if you get me to 8 frank I will not technically bust however it is a bit of a letdown but not entirely depressing at all for Dec. storm. I went for a walk and did a early shovel so as to not have to do the cars tomorrow all at once, with the xmas lights and the wind whisping and barely any cars it was heaven.

Do we expect high winds overnight?

NWS still calling for 12-16 for me so we must have ALOT coming if they don't want to bust big time.

Heavy sleet here again. Radar shows the band I’m getting but depicts as snow.

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Need to watch this in the morning. Shown on all guidance. Area of very heavy snow along the coast. There is still dry slotting over those stuck between the coast and the mega frontogenic band across NY

I'm looking at the most recent 0Z NAM and don't see this?

What's funny is I went back to pull the image so I can understand what Ray is saying, and I can't find the damn model that produced this snapshot

I had to get it from somewhere! Haha

7.5 inches on the ground in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude, the snow is coming down sideways and the Temperature has been 18 degrees for the last 3 hours but just dropped to 17 degrees, me and my buddy’s are holding our own but will let you know if we need reinforcements to be sent in, Snow is Good !