2021 Tropical Season

Jman I was def being serious. You explain everything in a way someone like me can understand. The others are great but sometimes I cannot understand what they are saying. You have a way of dumbing it for me. So yes they are great and important but you have real value too by making what they are saying make sense to those without their knowledge.

jmanley32 wrote:The large spread in which way this storm goes, and this is stated in Levi's video is unusual only 3 days out. And if the WCS did happen we would have very little time to prepare.  Thats another thing that makes the uncertainty in the track bad.  We better nail this down much better tomorrow night or theres go be about 24-48 hrs b4 he closes in or heads OTS, unless he slows down a lot.

If you didn’t have enough time to prepare for WCS that’s going to fall on you. This has been discussed on every major media and social media outlet for days. Just because you don’t know the final track doesn’t mean you don’t prepare for it ahead of time. Lol

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:The large spread in which way this storm goes, and this is stated in Levi's video is unusual only 3 days out. And if the WCS did happen we would have very little time to prepare.  Thats another thing that makes the uncertainty in the track bad.  We better nail this down much better tomorrow night or theres go be about 24-48 hrs b4 he closes in or heads OTS, unless he slows down a lot.

If you didn’t have enough time to prepare for WCS that’s going to fall on you. This has been discussed on every major media and social media outlet for days. Just because you don’t know the final track doesn’t mean you don’t prepare for it ahead of time. Lol

oh I agree and I pay no attention to the media cuz all they do is hype. People up here are complacent no matter how many times we do end up get hit. No one I've spoken to has a clue what I'm talking about. Honest truth its on them your right. I meant more like protecting the beaches by dozing sand dunes etc. If it was necessary.

JMAN What do you think for our area where we live I hope to God we do not have another crazy windstorm like last year when I lost power for 4 days

frank 638 wrote:JMAN What do you think for our area where we live I hope to God we do not have another crazy windstorm like last year when I lost power for 4 days

honestly frank I have no clue. Just be prepared like sroc stated. Luckily we do not live on the shore. I have a hunch there is going to be some sort of surprise with this, i dont necessarily mean  a good one. I just have this feeling looking at what he has on sattelite though he is decoupled once he can restack i think he may explode.  Once he is out of that shear i think we will know a lot more, and hopefully have a more concise cone of uncertainty and less obscene wind chance percentage map, you see that thing, it goes all way into freaking canada and the lowest into PA, so this is the spread. if you are out of the wind chance completely IMO its go be a non-event. Right now NYC has a 30% chance of 39+mph sustained winds, thats nothing to write off and there has been a westward shift albeit slight, once he heads North I think we see a better idea and once we have that new data. BTW rb, sroc? Has the new data been in the models yet?

Jman let’s hope up for the best for us . But ur right we have to still pay close attention to this storm

New data should be in 00z suites Jon

EPS comes in with a westward lean into LI.
Peeps this puppy is going to be in no shear after tonight from the looks which will as Ray has been harping on while strengthen. Now remember the stronger the storm it looks to wobble more west as it turns N. This has to be monitored. No spiking the ball either way. Stay tuned.

amugs wrote:EPS comes in with a westward lean into LI.
Peeps this puppy is going to be in no shear after tonight from the looks which will as Ray has been harping on while strengthen. Now remember the stronger the storm it looks to wobble more west as it turns N. This has to be monitored.  No spiking the ball either way. Stay tuned.

Crikey, those western solutions from central LI west are really bad news, and there are a lot more. which way are you leaning mugs? I just have a feeling Henri is gonna let loose tomorrow into sat. And at closer look more of them than not are on the western side of the NHC cone, quite a few members even go as far west as a NJ landfall which would be nuts, yeah stay tuned is for sure, this is not over till he is gone.

Many from Central LI and WEST at this range. Recon will help tighten this up and clear up this bowl of linguine.

Jon I wrote yesterday in a blog and Twitter that a 150-200 mile shift of the cone was easily at play. I'm thinking CLI/ELI hit. We have to see how deep the trough is coming in, how strong the HP is up N and how strong and position Hwnri is come morning. LI express redux? 1990 hcane Bob redux in ELI and RI?

amugs wrote:Jon I wrote yesterday in a blog and Twitter that a 150-200 mile shift of the cone was easily at play. I'm thinking CLI/ELI hit. We have to see how deep the trough is coming in, how strong the HP is up N and how strong and position Hwnri is come morning. LI express redux? 1990 hcane Bob redux in ELI and RI?

I hear windfield is also going to expand so even a central LI hit will make for big impacts around the tristate, I am only about 50 miles from central LI.  Would even be bad for NE jersey. I am curious to see how large he gets, and if intensity is strong and he does not slow down long enough to die out over the cold waters off Li then big poopies as someone said yesterday.

Yeah 1938 LI express, we have been wondering when something similar could happen. This bout as close a potential track as i have ever seen if central LI ends up being the spot and if my hinkling of a stronger than predicted cane are true its go be a lot trouble.

From 33andrain bd
3k NAM overdone I'd say by a lot but track is disconcerting if true.
Scary LI bound 38 redux. We'll see but 0Z comes in west.

11pm update same intensity right now but has started its WNW turn and cone shifted west  a bit.



NYC and east now in 40% plus chances of TS force winds, looks like the windfield is going to be pretty huge. potentially.

amugs wrote:From 33andrain bd
3k NAM overdone I'd say by a lot but track is disconcerting if true.
Scary LI bound 38 redux. We'll see but 0Z comes in west.

Just saw the run on TT and the position this is in the pressure is 933mb....lowest on the entire run 915mb. 3km nam always does insane intensities we have seen it with many hurricanes but who knows.

GFS hr 48 968 MB (cat2+?) headed north slightly west of 18z lets see where this goes.

Crap GFS looks like its go be near identical to 00z NAM jeeze.

So we are about 60 hrs from nearing a landfall on most models, I think tomorrow or latest sat morning we have it zero'd in or lets hope.

GFS is a 980mb cane landfalling into RI, it came west slightly.

amugs wrote:From 33andrain bd
3k NAM overdone I'd say by a lot but track is disconcerting if true.
Scary LI bound 38 redux. We'll see but 0Z comes in west.

The changes in the upper-levels continue to leave the door open for further adjustments, too across all of the 00z suites so far. Again, I don’t think we see a full-on Sandy 2.0 here, but a further south and west adjustment is still very much on the table. And even if we take the multi-model ensemble mean, which is now Suffolk County (roughly), a 75-100 mile shift is not that much with still three days to go, and that would lead to substantial impacts for most people on this forum. Gotta stay frosty here, folks. We are playing with a match at a gas station right now.

UKMET really wants to see Scott lol two runs in a row now.

Seeing the same changes aloft on the 00z Euro. Significant changes through the first 18-24 hours with respect to both Henri and the eastern CONUS trough. Lets see how it evolves from here.

I’ve seen what I needed to see. Good night folks.

rb924119 wrote:Seeing the same changes aloft on the 00z Euro. Significant changes through the first 18-24 hours with respect to both Henri and the eastern CONUS trough. Lets see how it evolves from here.

English please

1. Henri was stronger/further southwest
2. Eastern U.S. trough was deeper/further southwest

The above changes fit with the rest of the 00z suite, and continue to leave the door open for further adjustment west. Good night, mom

rb924119 wrote:1. Henri was stronger/further southwest
2. Eastern U.S. trough was deeper/further southwest

The above changes fit with the rest of the 00z suite, and continue to leave the door open for further adjustment west. Good night, mom

Thanks RB..have a good night sleep. Now to get the puppy to stop waking up at 1:30 wanting to play..