Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **dkodgis** Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:45 pm

I heard tonight's Central Park concert was canceled due to lightning. Playing it safe.

by **dkodgis** Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:50 pm

The storm response fine was a bit less, $86.2. Sorry about that

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/2021/07/15/con-edison-central-hudson-frontier-tropical-storm-isaias-settlment/7978525002/

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:55 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:Feel like the 18z gfs coming around to what hrrr has been saying all along about a hard left hook. If this happens a bit sw of where the gfs is NJ is going to wash away…

Hate tell you this but HRRR 23z is wayyy east, it caved to the other models. I do not think the storm is turning west much if at all. Ray nice job but I guess it didn't quite work out the way you thought. Unless we have some crazy surprise shift.

by **sroc4** Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:59 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough. If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real. I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run. This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall

I’m still sticking with this idea from yesterday morning. I never was on the landfall any further west than Nassau/Suffolk county boarder. Nothing has happened yet so of course I’ll eat crow if I have to. Also the window to intensify is rapidly closing as it is almost to the northern most Latitude of the gUlf stream. We have all seen Trop systems rapidly intensify however. We likely only have a solid 12hrs for that to happen.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:22 pm

JB says can intensify to moderate CAT 1 still over GS waters

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:25 pm

From 33 n Rain wx forum
Looks to be turning NNW - eek I hope not

2021 Tropical Season - Page 26 1742776380_KOKX-Super-ResReflectivityTilt19_09PM.gif.06d6548a87518703bf18a2e076a9cbad

2021 Tropical Season - Page 26 1742776380_KOKX-Super-ResReflectivityTilt19_09PM.gif.06d6548a87518703bf18a2e076a9cbad

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:30 pm

We should start to see the turn now folks. Lets see what happens.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:We should start to see the turn now folks. Lets see what happens.

in rb i trust, why you been so silent man, worried ur wrong and cowering lol jk, that image above mugs posted could be a turn, now how much it goes nnw or if it goes nw would be really bad.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:34 pm

Look above to the post I made of the radar. It's turning as per rb cheers

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:37 pm

Great minds, mugsy. Great minds.

Scott (sroc) and Jman, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about my previous track. But you know what? My ideas got us this far. Scott can take the victory, this would be one I’d be ok with being wrong on……..to a point hehe it would still hurt though, I won’t lie

If it busts, though, I do have to that this would be the first I’ve seen a trough tilt so negatively the axis is actually inverted to positive, and there’s little westward propagation of the feature being captured. It just doesn’t make sense to me. But I guess if it works out that way, it’s something to learn from Smile

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:37 pm

rb924119 wrote:We should start to see the turn now folks. Lets see what happens.

do you still believe in how far west you had him getting or do you feel its further east now?he did get pretty far NNE.

by **phil155** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:38 pm

amugs wrote:Look above to the post I made of the radar. It's turning as per rb

Let's all hope it does not turn much

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:41 pm

looks pretty horrid again at least on the infrared. whoever is o neastern side has got some searios wind to deal with, western side has stronger winds than b4 but not like the east, some readings are above 70kts

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We should start to see the turn now folks. Lets see what happens.
in rb i trust, why you been so silent man, worried ur wrong and cowering lol jk, that image above mugs posted could be a turn, now how much it goes nnw or if it goes nw would be really bad.

Been busy lol had an impromptu corn hole tourney all afternoon, went shopping and to pick up food which took a while, and then just finished supper like a half hour ago haha oo and I spent an hour with my dad getting all my gym equipment up on blocks in case we get the real bad rain that hasn’t materialized yet here ahaha

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:46 pm

He really does look like he is turning NNW or even NW, i may not be seeing it right but it looks like a sudden change in direction has happened.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:51 pm

It's happening. Rb is on the track of greatness since last week when he said he was worried about this

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:53 pm

Storm reports to this site.
https://www.weather.gov/okx/SubmitStormReport

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:55 pm

Lmao…

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We should start to see the turn now folks. Lets see what happens.
do you still believe in how far west you had him getting or do you feel its further east now?he did get pretty far NNE.

Good question, and I’m not sure I can honestly answer it. On the one hand, my comment above makes me want to stand firm on my call. It just does not make sense to me. On the other hand, though, it’s ALWAYS scary going against guidance at such a short range lol

The smart thing would be to adjust east. But 1) who says I’m smart? And 2) everybody is prepared at this point, the pressure is still on, but it’s also not. So honestly idk lol just being completely honest.

I guess I’ll answer this way: my confidence has definitely waned, but I’m not sure I want to abandon ship yet even though it looks like the ship is sinking ahaha I do like what I’m seeing on recent satellite imagery though; the things I was looking for are showing up now haha that’s why I think it’s starting it’s turn

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:00 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We should start to see the turn now folks. Lets see what happens.
do you still believe in how far west you had him getting or do you feel its further east now?he did get pretty far NNE.

Good question, and I’m not sure I can honestly answer it. On the one hand, my comment above makes me want to stand firm on my call. It just does not make sense to me. On the other hand, though, it’s ALWAYS scary going against guidance at such a short range lol

The smart thing would be to adjust east. But 1) who says I’m smart? And 2) everybody is prepared at this point, the pressure is still on, but it’s also not. So honestly idk lol just being completely honest.

I guess I’ll answer this way: my confidence has definitely waned, but I’m not sure I want to abandon ship yet even though it looks like the ship is sinking ahaha I do like what I’m seeing on recent satellite imagery though; the things I was looking for are showing up now haha that’s why I think it’s starting it’s turn

good answer, better than a simple yes or no. lets just let it play out and see! Maybe 11pm will see if it changed direction at all.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:07 pm

ray they got a recon checking out the area thats supposedly effecting henri

mission 11 if you look

by Zhukov1945 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:11 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Lmao…

This has to rank up there with “worst storm modeling” fiascos of all time

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:13 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Lmao…

This has to rank up there with “worst storm modeling” fiascos of all time

At least this is one part I got right lmfaoooo

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:ray they got a recon checking out the area thats supposedly effecting henri

mission 11 if you look

Are they doing that, or just on their way into Henri’s circulation?

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:18 pm

TURN NNW!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-1208A-HENRI.png

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:20 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:ray they got a recon checking out the area thats supposedly effecting henri

mission 11 if you look

Are they doing that, or just on their way into Henri’s circulation?

no they are making circles around it and is now headed to Henri, and u are right look at the3 center pts the 989 is NNW of the southern most.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:23 pm

Western side is picking up in intensity per recon, lots of 40-50mph sustained surface level winds.

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