2021 Tropical Season

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:I'm away down the shore and just catching up, and have tickets to the Eagles concert at the Garden Sunday night. Going to be a tough trip in to the city if they don't cancel it. Rip current advisories already out.

Might have to jump on The Long Road Out of Eden and take the exit for Hotel California for evacuation if Henri comes any further west lol

Thank you, Scott, I was getting very upset that nobody saw what I did there aha

That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

3k NAM looks like what the regular NAM SHOULD HAVE looked like IMO.

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough. If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real. I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run. This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall

current observations have the LLC almost completely exposed with the convection centered well SSEof its center indicating the system is still significantly tilted NW to SE. This is a direct result of the shear and the reason the intensity forecst has been delayed a bit.  Look at the real time loop to see for yourself:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=truecolor

jmanley32 wrote:Wow western LI landfal lthen another landfall in far westerCT/eastern southern NY. bad bad run i nterms of impacts.  basically takes RI and cape out of it, ironic.

Any model that jumps run to run like the NAM is doing should be tossed. At least looking at landfall and track. Still fine with lookingh at upper level features, but ts track should not be looked at. 99% of the time the differences between the GFS and the Euro is going to give you a fairly accurate cone of uncertainty.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough.  If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real.  I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run.  This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall  

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.

well then...that is surely a S##t show, right smack into nyc. How much stance do we put in the ICON?

If it was alone/unsupported in its ideas? Pretty much zero. But it’s not lol

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough.  If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real.  I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run.  This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall  

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

Timing and positioning are kind of one in the same. 6 of one half dozen of another. I still think we cannot look at this as simple as "being captured by the trough" And positioning of "the trough", because this is a cutoff low capturing Henri which acts as the fulcrum to the pivot to start. It, the ULL, gets captured, by the mean trough coming in from the west. Its capture is weak at best until our system has made landfall. So this is a much more complex discussion on that front. The energy rounding the base of the mean trough is minimally consequential in its direct influence to Henri. The capture of the ULL and its initial interactions with Henri, before it is weakly captured by the mean trough, is adding minimal amts of energy to Henri. Its main influence is in its capture, and uses as the pivot to steer him along with the ridge to the NE, and weakly at that as the steering current will be weak when he reaches North of the latitude of NCarolina.





I undertsnd

GFS should be coming further west as well based on the upper levels.