Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:17 pm

2021 Tropical Season - Page 28 Image.png.ff3faa57d062871c04a104f37224137d

Shows the block over Maine and Negat tilt to trough. See what happens from here. This map would indicate a NW track? If not NNW

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:17 pm

i think an eye is go break out in that nice circle of convection, recon found 987mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:17 pm

Also looks like course is almost due northwest right now by my eye.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:19 pm

jinx rb!! on the eyewall. maybe last minute RI? ICON, my god if that happens....

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:Also looks like course is almost due northwest right now by my eye.

ray ur not kidding, it looks, and i say looks like its headed directly to central western LI, if you coup this i will crown you new master of the forum lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:22 pm

icon drops 10 inches raon over most NE NJ, cuz it moves inland then west into PA then back east, doubtful but jeeze

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:25 pm

Henri is being a bad boy, def RI, look how fast that convection is working in a eyewall and compackting and fully symetrical all around. wow

This loosk due NW along that line of convenction if he follows that that will win rb's area of landfall straight on.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Also looks like course is almost due northwest right now by my eye.
ray ur not kidding, it looks, and i say looks like its headed directly to central western LI, if you coup this i will crown you new master of the forum lol

Not counting chickens, but IF I coup this, I may just retire and go out on top lmfao

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:icon drops 10 inches raon over most NE NJ, cuz it moves inland then west into PA then back east, doubtful but jeeze

Told you ahaha it may not be too far off if these trends continue lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:30 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:icon drops 10 inches raon over most NE NJ, cuz it moves inland then west into PA then back east, doubtful but jeeze

Told you ahaha it may not be too far off if these trends continue lol

im literally getting no sleep since thurs night lol, and tonight wont be any diff, its moving fast now u can clearly see by looking at Lat/Long boxes that he is moving NW or at a minimum NNW

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:31 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:icon drops 10 inches raon over most NE NJ, cuz it moves inland then west into PA then back east, doubtful but jeeze

Told you ahaha it may not be too far off if these trends continue lol

And you will have to have a word with The NHC, as that would be even out of their cone.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:31 pm

Again imagine if he was Hcane strength this morning?? Would have been ~ 75 miles more west.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:icon drops 10 inches raon over most NE NJ, cuz it moves inland then west into PA then back east, doubtful but jeeze

Told you ahaha it may not be too far off if these trends continue lol
im literally getting no sleep since thurs night lol, and tonight wont be any diff, its moving fast now u can clearly see by looking at Lat/Long boxes that he is moving NW or at a minimum NNW

Fully agree on all accounts lmao I think in three days I’ve goteen ten or 11 hour combined? Lmao

Can we get that elusive westward turn??

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:33 pm

ray next question is i believe he is supposed to take a strong halt b4 landfall, if this happens soon he would be able to get even further west. oh and BTW you are smart, you kidding me?

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:icon drops 10 inches raon over most NE NJ, cuz it moves inland then west into PA then back east, doubtful but jeeze

Told you ahaha it may not be too far off if these trends continue lol
And you will have to have a word with The NHC, as that would be even out of their cone.

Who am I to them? Some scrub who doesn’t even have Master’s degree or work in field, let alone hold a doctorate (or multiple), have 15 years of professional experience, or even currently work in the field? Lmao

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:35 pm

Several water rescues have already occurred with the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel closed inbound due to flooding…

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:icon drops 10 inches raon over most NE NJ, cuz it moves inland then west into PA then back east, doubtful but jeeze

Told you ahaha it may not be too far off if these trends continue lol
im literally getting no sleep since thurs night lol, and tonight wont be any diff, its moving fast now u can clearly see by looking at Lat/Long boxes that he is moving NW or at a minimum NNW

Fully agree on all accounts lmao I think in three days I’ve goteen ten or 11 hour combined? Lmao

Can we get that elusive westward turn??

like due west? now ray i think ur asking too much there lol, but who knows. what is that band that he seems to be following NW? unless its just a false way we are looking at the infrared.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:36 pm

amugs wrote:Again imagine if he was Hcane strength this morning?? Would have been ~ 75 miles more west.

If this was the case, I honestly think we’d have a Sandy 2.0. So I’m glad this wasn’t the case. As it is, it’s eerily similar, just a smaller, weaker system overall.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:37 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Several water rescues have already occurred with the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel closed inbound due to flooding…

Not cool

hope everybody is ok and safe now Sad

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:37 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Several water rescues have already occurred with the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel closed inbound due to flooding…

not good and soul you been seeing me and ray convo? look at henri on the infrared, he is getting tight and a core and appears to be moving NNW or NW, now we trying get ray up to WNW lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:38 pm

It is pretty stormy here too ray, worst just to south of me, hearing lots of big thunder. wow just got flood advisory 1-2 has fallen and 1-2 more, if henri puts down what some models show we could easily see near a goot of rain by monday jesus! Add any wind and trees wil leasily uproot with the saturation, no good.

by **Joe Snow** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:39 pm

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Several water rescues have already occurred with the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel closed inbound due to flooding…

not good and soul you been seeing me and ray convo? look at henri on the infrared, he is getting tight and a core and appears to be moving NNW or NW, now we trying get ray up to WNW lol

Oh I am here for it, believe me. Lots of chatter right now about how organized it’s looking and how the upper level ridge over Maine/New Hampshire is going to stop Henri from going as far east as latest models suggest. This is clearly a nowcast situation.

Also, reiterating the flood risk…

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:42 pm

Joe Snow wrote:

The Cells in Henri are moving west.

MOG, could ray really be right like holy crap if so. NHC will have big yucky egg o ntheir fact if henri is following those cells.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:ray next question is i believe he is supposed to take a strong halt b4 landfall, if this happens soon he would be able to get even further west. oh and BTW you are smart, you kidding me?

This goes back to my question of how efficient is the turn to west? If it’s super efficient, then all latitude gain stops entirely and it goes due west. If it’s not efficient at all, then it continues toward Long Island and likely heads inland. Right now, on a spectrum of:

Not efficient-very inefficient- somewhat inefficient-efficient-somewhat efficient-very efficient-super efficient

I’d say we are around “very efficient”. If we get that west turn, then it goes to “super efficient” lol

And thanks! But I’m always learning lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:ray next question is i believe he is supposed to take a strong halt b4 landfall, if this happens soon he would be able to get even further west. oh and BTW you are smart, you kidding me?

This goes back to my question of how efficient is the turn to west? If it’s super efficient, then all latitude gain stops entirely and it goes due west. If it’s not efficient at all, then it continues toward Long Island and likely heads inland. Right now, on a spectrum of:

Not efficient-very inefficient- somewhat inefficient-efficient-somewhat efficient-very efficient-super efficient

I’d say we are around “very efficient”. If we get that west turn, then it goes to “super efficient” lol

And thanks! But I’m always learning lol

you see snows post? does the hurricane follow its own cells? If so it is going due west.....

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:It is pretty stormy here too ray, worst just to south of me, hearing lots of big thunder. wow just got flood advisory 1-2 has fallen and 1-2 more, if henri puts down what some models show we could easily see near a goot of rain by monday jesus! Add any wind and trees wil leasily uproot with the saturation, no good.

Yeah I’ve been watching the radar and have seen you guys getting pounded up there. Stay safe man!

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