Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

by **amugs** Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:04 pm

MJO PHASE 7after a swing through 6 which is warm for everyone east of the Rockies. Could be a prod to better winter weather right thereafter.

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Ff8ntg10

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:45 pm

The eastward progression of this wave, and the WWA associated with it, is very impressive. Will it reach the dateline? Exciting end of month if it can

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 F3dfc610

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The eastward progression of this wave, and the WWA associated with it, is very impressive. Will it reach the dateline? Exciting end of month if it can

I think we hold off until the New Year, personally, as the standing wave is still strong. THAT SAID, as of this morning’s data, I am now becoming EXCEEDINGLY OPTIMISTIC for the ideas that I’ve previously expressed about January and beyond. I don’t have time for a full discussion today, I will try my best carve out some time this week to cut a video explaining what I’m looking at.

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:18 pm

And it now appears that I’m not alone, though they’re a little late to the game Wink

https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1467897834263527435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1467897834263527435%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1467897834263527435%3Ft%3DuM4bFWCRk21UktF5gG-0ew26s%3D19

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThomasKBullock2/status/1467909901494198274?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1467911425356177409%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fantmasiello%2Fstatus%2F1467911425356177409%3Ft%3DGt-kwy78ZMvHyuqu983bBg26s%3D19

by **amugs** Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:21 pm

.....and still no change from me. Said all along this Dec would not be a +ve NAO washout and I stick by that. Blocking patterns ahead and this +AAM spike with MJO in phases 6-7 could really start poking away at the strat vortex as well. Christmas cold anyone?... pic.twitter.com/CJeXofsA3B
— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) December 6, 2021

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:17 am

Pretty much everyone who follows the LR is thinking a pattern reversal sometime after Christmas. Whether it happens at the end of this month or waits until January is unknown. Normally these things are rushed on the models. Wouldn’t shock me if we wait until January. But look for signs of it after Christmas.

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Pretty much everyone who follows the LR is thinking a pattern reversal sometime after Christmas. Whether it happens at the end of this month or waits until January is unknown. Normally these things are rushed on the models. Wouldn’t shock me if we wait until January. But look for signs of it after Christmas.

Couldn't agree more.

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:06 am

This is 120 (12/12) hours out on the EPS. If the GOA Alaska ridging does build then it makes sense that we should see colder weather towards end of month. The current MJO forecasts is conducive to that too. It's a question to me of how transient it is as we have not had good sustained PAC EPO support in some time. I won't be surprised if it's transient. I think the Atlantic side will need to help us out.

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Eps21

by **rb924119** Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:38 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This is 120 (12/12) hours out on the EPS. If the GOA Alaska ridging does build then it makes sense that we should see colder weather towards end of month. The current MJO forecasts is conducive to that too. It's a question to me of how transient it is as we have not had good sustained PAC EPO support in some time. I won't be surprised if it's transient. I think the Atlantic side will need to help us out.

You may very well get your wish with respect to the Atlantic.....

Video discussion in progress.

by **Math23x7** Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:10 pm

Here is today's 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the CPC:

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 61012010

For comparison purposes, here was the 6 to 10 temperature outlook from the CPC from December 15th, 2015:

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 6to10110

by **frank 638** Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:27 pm

Just like the old saying as December goes so does winter lol . I know it’s not winter yet just sick and tired of above normal temperatures and waiting for a good snowstorm

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:15 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Here is today's 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the CPC:

For comparison purposes, here was the 6 to 10 temperature outlook from the CPC from December 15th, 2015:

I think I get it. Approximately 5-6 weeks after this Dec 15, 2015 "torch", we got hit with that BIG BIG BIGGIE like Jan 24, 2016. Most of the area had like 2 feet. The way that winter set up, if I recall correctly, was that there was zero winter weather for much of the area until the pattern flipped in mid-late January. The previous weekend Jan 17 or so, the pattern flip came to fruition with a fairly weak storm that gave maybe a few inches, but more importantly helped to set up the thruway for the THREE storms that came together the next weekend, Friday night into Sunday morning, literally cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 1f60d

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 1f60d

.

by **amugs** Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:09 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Here is today's 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the CPC:

For comparison purposes, here was the 6 to 10 temperature outlook from the CPC from December 15th, 2015:

I think I get it. Approximately 5-6 weeks after this Dec 15, 2015 "torch", we got hit with that BIG BIG BIGGIE like Jan 24, 2016. Most of the area had like 2 feet. The way that winter set up, if I recall correctly, was that there was zero winter weather for much of the area until the pattern flipped in mid-late January. The previous weekend Jan 17 or so, the pattern flip came to fruition with a fairly weak storm that gave maybe a few inches, but more importantly helped to set up the thruway for the THREE storms that came together the next weekend, Friday night into Sunday morning, literally .

Okay 15-16 was a Super El Nino which this is no where near the base state of that absolute torch winter so let's not draw these comparisons. Leave it to Math to jump in here with his AN temp maps. You know this is what I have been harping on with extreme weather patterns in the meridional jet structure in low solar minimum regime we are in. Look at history for such and you'll find the same 09-10,10-11 are the latest to point to.

MJO Graphic
This is from Eric Webb from 33 n Rain board which is a great graphic to help show the amplitude of the MJO and the phases - great animation to help us understand when we talk about the wave adn its corresponding MJO amplitude for what affects it will have on our weather usually in a weeks time. As Larry Cosgrove explained and believes everything is dictated by the tropics for ALL world weather patterns which is directly influenced by the amount of unobtrusive/blocked/ unblocked sunlight to heat the oceans. Interesting dynamics for sure.
cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 149140579_MJOphasesanimationVPM.gif.18b818ec56781af32e2f9a24d143dcb8

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 149140579_MJOphasesanimationVPM.gif.18b818ec56781af32e2f9a24d143dcb8

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:03 pm

Folks, I want to apologize - I took several cuts of my discussion yesterday before work, but I wasn't quite happy with how they turned out. So, after work (early this morning), I did it again. This time, I'm happy with how it turned out, but for some reason, the video never uploaded after I went to bed. I am now attempting to re-upload the video, and then once it's uploaded, it will be a little while longer before the video is processed and ready to be viewed. That said, I think it will be well worth the wait, and I will post it as soon as it's ready, but in the meantime, I thank you for your patience Smile

by **amugs** Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:23 pm

In the meantime as we patiently and eagerly wait for Rb Video this is what to expect - right on cue - - EPO incoming just in time for the holidays? - 2013 repeat possibly? From EPAWX

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGG6Mh6WYAIBODZ?format=jpg&name=medium

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGG6Mh6WYAIBODZ?format=jpg&name=medium

Great illustration to hep understand the EPO and what its affects are to the sensible weather for us

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGG75GPWUAQVt1E?format=jpg&name=large

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGG75GPWUAQVt1E?format=jpg&name=large

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:57 pm

Ok, gang, my discussion is finally ready to be viewed, and I took the first opportunity that I had while at work to post it haha Just as a warning, it's lengthy - 28 minutes, but the reasons are for that are that I 1) had a lot to say, and 2) wanted to try to teach and explain the fundamentals simultaneously with going over the forecast itself. This way, it's (hopefully) more enjoyable for those less well-versed in meteorology, and you can follow along just as well as those of us who are nerdy haha

Anyway, I hope that you all enjoy it, and as usual, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to post them and I'll be glad to follow up when I can. All in all, I STRONGLY BELIEVE that there is A LOT TO BE EXCITED ABOUT, and I think this video demonstrates that well. Enjoy!!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FHxWFGBlpaAX793_k4UAeYCU85P0xw8Y/view?usp=sharing

by **amugs** Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:02 pm

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Spatial_olrmap_small.gif.fcbf906eadb52eb7cf784f6a1d71ac81

.thro

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 EMON_phase_51m_small.gif.25214ececbfeda591c03a72ca3c08212

MJO goes ugh phase 6 which will help disrupt the PV and the Ural/Scandinavian Ridge will also help. But the moderate MJO wave and OLR show that the EAMT affects the SPV and will eventually help shuffle the pattern to a favorable winter pattern down the road. We just have to endure the Heat Miser for a week ish. Then we may flip and flip hard.

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 1437574043_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member(1).gif.9453ff4928c99c9b1def876466c2b108

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 1437574043_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member(1).gif.9453ff4928c99c9b1def876466c2b108

by **SENJsnowman** Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:07 pm

Sensational Ray, thanks so much! I need to watch it one more time for sure. But not tonight, got to wait a day or two and then go back in on it. But man is that an amazing explanation and presentation! cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 1f37b

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 1f37b

by **Radz** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:23 am

Great video Rb, thanks for the great explanation- I hope you’re forecast comes to fruition! I really hope we get back to seasonal around the Holidays though as well!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:44 am

Thanks for the video Ray! I’ll reserve time during lunch today to watch it.

I glanced at the GFS this morning and could not help but notice how aggressive it went with the Scandy-sourced -NAO. It ended up leading to bombogenesis/Godzilla along the coast near Christmas. GFS might be too fast here with the evolution of the -NAO, but it is very fun to see the long range look like this:

-NAO forms on the 18th:

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs_z500a_namer_39

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs_z500a_namer_39

-STJ short wave can’t cut north as a result of the block, leading to mahem and phase at the coast

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_49

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_49

-End result:

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_54

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_56

by **heehaw453** Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:57 am

RB an excellent video demonstrating a passion and skill in meteorology! Also, your insight into the later start to winter has been spot on. We had some good blocking in latter November, but it was transient and we have been in a shut out pattern since.

IMO what your describing in the video is a winter a la 95/96 pattern but starting in mid January as opposed to late November. That's pretty much the golden standard of a winter.

These convective waves are damn fickle to predict, and hence my skepticism, but I can't fault your logic and reasoning based on your scientific arguments. Well done sir!

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:30 am

Great video RB. Informative and precise. All I can say is if this pattern flip takes place, this would be the most atypical LaNina I can ever remember since LaNinas normally means we’re in store for a front loaded winter/ early spring. Come to think of it winter of 95/96 was a atypical LaNina.

by **amugs** Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:47 pm

Rb - Bravo Kid - your explanation was perfect of how the pattern are driven by these dynamic yet simplistic forces. It is amazing to learn from a pro like you. When I came to the Channel 7 wx board in 2010 I was an ignorant amateur with a passion and have learned SO MUCH over the years, listening to pros, reading, studying, watching videos, attending seminars and being on wx boards. I am still learning and that is the beauty of this passion and thanks for taking teh time to teach us the "what to the why" and the "why to the what" - a saying I use in engineering with my classes when problem solving (isn't everything nowadays a problem?

Exciting times ahead for sure and I love the prognostication of what this could turn out to be from late December through March.

If yuo are paying attention not to just IMBY goggles as so many have that the rest of the world is getting hammered so far - like South America and Down Under did in their winter .

With this I know we all want to rush the pattern but there are good indications after this AN warm spell we start to shuffle and change teh pattern like DOC and CP did the twist back in the day LOL!! CP will need an awakening in about 12-14 days I would suppose.

I would take this and run if it comes true - remember there a lag so if it's Dec 22 then that usually means 3 -4 days later from experience affects start to occur. Unless we get that Ural Scan Ridge to retrograde to Greenie land and block this up. Possible of course.
cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGLCW-XWYAYGEIg?format=jpg&name=medium

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGLCW-XWYAYGEIg?format=jpg&name=medium

This would be interesting if it came to fruition - Westwardish based Negative EPO, Neg NAO and a trough setting up
cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_28

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_28

by **amugs** Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:56 pm

MJO phases
GEFS
cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

EURO

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 ECMF_phase_51m_full

EURO Extended
cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 EMON_phase_51m_full

OLR
This maps shows the orangy color subsiding over the maritime and shifting east into MJO phase 7 region

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Make_recon_forecastOLRpcr

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 Make_recon_forecastOLRpcr

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:49 pm

frank 638 wrote:Just like the old saying as December goes so does winter lol . I know it’s not winter yet just sick and tired of above normal temperatures and waiting for a good snowstorm

Patience is a virtue……..TRUST THE PROCESS. It’s coming Wink

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:51 pm

amugs wrote:.thro

MJO goes ugh phase 6 which will help disrupt the PV and the Ural/Scandinavian Ridge will also help. But the moderate MJO wave and OLR show that the EAMT affects the SPV and will eventually help shuffle the pattern to a favorable winter pattern down the road. We just have to endure the Heat Miser for a week ish. Then we may flip and flip hard.

This sounds oddly familiar :p

by **amugs** Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:51 pm

Jb not backing down

MJO going into colder phases, EPO and WPO going into their colder phases. Phase 6 yields what you see now. phase 7/8 much colder and what is likely coming. Pattern looks very cold to me Dec 20-Jan 20 pic.twitter.com/kuBaSxsRoe
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) December 9, 2021

Close up of Maps

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGLBj3kXwAEI_le?format=jpg&name=medium

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGLBlfgWYAMLUP0?format=png&name=360x360

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGLBnHtXIAEIKX6?format=png&name=small

cold - Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 9 FGLBoQtWUAMoZYA?format=png&name=medium

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