Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

by **rb924119** Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:42 pm

I know that it’s the happy hour GFS suite (I.e. 18z, and those of you whom have known me a while know that I don’t like off-hour runs, i.e. 06z/18z runs), but what I saw at the end of the 18z GFS suite tonight is exactly what I’m looking for at 500mb. The European trough sheds its eastern flank and retrogrades westward a bit (while remaining a quasi-permanent feature), thereby allowing an opening for downstream ridge amplification in the area of 70-ish East longitude (Kahir’s Connection) but also forcing a progression of the pattern DOWNSTREAM. This, by default, then allows our persistent Aleutian ridge to begin shifting east in the means and near the west coast of North America (while maintaining amplitude into Alaska, -EPO). This, then, begins to force our western North America trough begin shedding energy downstream and “handing off” to the Atlantic trough to our east. This allows the Atlantic trough to our east to begin discontinuously retrograding westward with each successive handoff from the western North American trough. Eventually, the western North American trough would shed the last of its energy (eject a shortwave), allowing the ridge behind it to quickly slide in over western North America and explosive cyclogensis to ensue in the western part of the Atlantic trough, which would foster the last of the discontinuous retrogression. This is why I said when I first presented the idea of the January flip that I could see it come in with a bang. Once this process occurs, then the whole kit and caboodle will crash into this eastern trough from Canada, and we go into the freezer. Because of the combination of the overall pattern progression, MJO/ENSO forcing, and then Stratospheric forcing aligning, this will have staying power. We HAVE to see if the general progression modeled in tonight’s 18z suite continues to show up. The GFS suite has admittedly lead the way with this whole thing, and is continuing to adjust to the concepts presented earlier. This is HUGE folks, and I’m even more excited.

On top of that, this is a PHENOMENAL thread that deserves a read. Same results, slightly different angle of analysis:

1/ More on the upcoming weather pattern as we close out the year, with a comparison to last winter...

The latest ECMWF and GFS extended ensembles are in unusual agreement for this forecast range for the final 7 days in Dec (with east-based -NAO and central N Pac ridge) pic.twitter.com/rgZ6VLnBag
— griteater (@griteater) December 14, 2021

by **amugs** Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:52 pm

I read Griteaters tweet and he's been all over this . Of course Rb you have been first and he must have read and seen your videos END of GEFS are humina set up. Keeps.moving up in time.

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:29 pm

Persistent -PNA trough over west coast making models stingy w.r.t. showing snow in the next 7 days. There is evidence of Atlantic blocking in the mid range along with with a -AO. My thought is we can still manage to get a small scale type of event before Christmas. That PNA must relax a bit before we start thinking anything beyond that type of small scale event IMO. The EPO though is definitely not going to give us the bad air mass we had last year. Night and day differences there. So overall it looks positive, but i say again the PAC has been a thorn in the ass.

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:46 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Persistent -PNA trough over west coast making models stingy w.r.t. showing snow in the next 7 days. There is evidence of Atlantic blocking in the mid range along with with a -AO. My thought is we can still manage to get a small scale type of event before Christmas. That PNA must relax a bit before we start thinking anything beyond that type of small scale event IMO. The EPO though is definitely not going to give us the bad air mass we had last year. Night and day differences there. So overall it looks positive, but i say again the PAC has been a thorn in the ass.

Patience, heehaw - it’ll happen. The ensembles are showing the exact changes we need to see, that I mentioned last night. Starting from about December 29th or 30th, we should start to see the ensembles beginning to correct to progressively more +PNA/-EPO/-WPO triplet, and more eastern U.S. trough in the time-mean. New Year, new pattern. We just have to stay the course for now my friend, and trust the process Wink

Also of importance: note the latest MJO forecasts are longer and stronger in Phase 7. This will provide some resistance at first, so the usual caveats to a “step-down” process apply (back and forth), and I like the true transition for our sensible weather to hold off a bit until approximately Week 2 of January (say, after the 6th). But while it’ll be a foe early, it’s going to be our friend later, as it should maintain an overall higher amplitude through later phases longer (higher starting point). Additionally, the longer/stronger Phase 7 will continue disrupt the Stratospheric PV, which again, based on the orientation of that disruption, will help us down the road. LOTS to be upbeat about in the extended.

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Persistent -PNA trough over west coast making models stingy w.r.t. showing snow in the next 7 days. There is evidence of Atlantic blocking in the mid range along with with a -AO. My thought is we can still manage to get a small scale type of event before Christmas. That PNA must relax a bit before we start thinking anything beyond that type of small scale event IMO. The EPO though is definitely not going to give us the bad air mass we had last year. Night and day differences there. So overall it looks positive, but i say again the PAC has been a thorn in the ass.

Patience, heehaw - it’ll happen. The ensembles are showing the exact changes we need to see, that I mentioned last night. Starting from about December 29th or 30th, we should start to see the ensembles beginning to correct to progressively more +PNA/-EPO/-WPO triplet, and more eastern U.S. trough. New Year, new pattern. We just have to stay the course for now my friend, and trust the process

I want bonus snow OTG on Christmas santa

. No matter how good it may get after that a snowless Christmas ground is Tired Mad

by **rb924119** Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:00 pm

Check my edits for additional comments (afterthoughts, really. Or post scripts. God, I’m getting old and forgetting my thoughts

)

Yeah, there’s nothing that beats snow on/for Christmas. But I think Santa Clause is just going to be running a little late with our gift this year, like everybody else Wink

by **amugs** Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:19 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Persistent -PNA trough over west coast making models stingy w.r.t. showing snow in the next 7 days. There is evidence of Atlantic blocking in the mid range along with with a -AO. My thought is we can still manage to get a small scale type of event before Christmas. That PNA must relax a bit before we start thinking anything beyond that type of small scale event IMO. The EPO though is definitely not going to give us the bad air mass we had last year. Night and day differences there. So overall it looks positive, but i say again the PAC has been a thorn in the ass.

Patience, heehaw - it’ll happen. The ensembles are showing the exact changes we need to see, that I mentioned last night. Starting from about December 29th or 30th, we should start to see the ensembles beginning to correct to progressively more +PNA/-EPO/-WPO triplet, and more eastern U.S. trough in the time-mean. New Year, new pattern. We just have to stay the course for now my friend, and trust the process

Also of importance: note the latest MJO forecasts are longer and stronger in Phase 7. This will provide some resistance at first, so the usual caveats to a “step-down” process apply (back and forth), and I like the true transition for our sensible weather to hold off a bit until approximately Week 2 of January (say, after the 6th). But while it’ll be a foe early, it’s going to be our friend later, as it should maintain an overall higher amplitude through later phases longer (higher starting point). Additionally, the longer/stronger Phase 7 will continue disrupt the Stratospheric PV, which again, based on the orientation of that disruption, will help us down the road. LOTS to be upbeat about in the extended.

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by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:17 am

Ray, are you concerned this wave does not propagate as far east as you previously thought? If it stays stuck in phase 7, we’re looking at -WPO/-PNA conditions for awhile. Granted, the -NAO will be nice and help our chances for wintry weather. That does appear to be on track. But this pesky wave doesn’t seem to want to head east. It seems to be back building (I know that’s not the proper terminology but you get my point)

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by **amugs** Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:11 am

Please be right!

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by **rb924119** Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:34 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Ray, are you concerned this wave does not propagate as far east as you previously thought? If it stays stuck in phase 7, we’re looking at -WPO/-PNA conditions for awhile. Granted, the -NAO will be nice and help our chances for wintry weather. That does appear to be on track. But this pesky wave doesn’t seem to want to head east. It seems to be back building (I know that’s not the proper terminology but you get my point)

Honestly, not really. I think we are right on track. The loop back into Phase 6 is an artifact of the western Pacific super typhoon. Once that skeedadles, the MJO plots will correct to reflect the larger-scale wave back in Phase 7. That said, I do think the slow propagation at increased amplitude makes physical sense given the factors I’ve outlined already in the video, and essentially, the MJO is in a “hurry up and wait” mode right now, as it’s being constrained by the larger ENSO circulation. Once the atmosphere begins to respond to the ENSO progression, we will see (in my opinion) the MJO and the outside pattern move concurrently. That’s when you’ll see the wave progress eastward. I mentioned my expectation of a two-month lag with this, and is why I said I like Week 2 of January as the true transitional period. Once it starts moving though, I think we will see it maintain its amplitude much better through Phases 8 and 1 than you might think based purely on the SST anomalies. And remember, when you’re discussing the tropics, increased amplitude generally means slower progression. By the time it then gets into Phase 2 and starts to really lose its coherence, the damage will already be done, again, in my opinion, and then the effects of the SSW will just start compounding on the same pattern.

To follow this progression further, conceptually, it would make sense to see the MJO cycle through Phases 3, 4, 5, and 6 rather quickly at decreased amplitude before again re-emerging as it’s in Phase 6 heading for Phase 7 and regaining amplitude as it begins to again constructively interfere with the ENSO-induced circulation. This second rotation through 7, 8, 1 and into 2 would likely be during the latter stages of February, and take us through the opening of March, if I had to guess.

Not to get lost in all of the above, remember, is the effect that this prolonged convection over and near the Maritime Continent will have on the Stratospheric PV. So while we will continue the relative warmth and snowlessness through the turn of the New Year, we will reap the rewards later. So, really, I’d rather see this type of progression now instead of a faster progression. The Stratospheric PV is already going to start being stressed from this later this week/weekend, and it’s only going to be maintained/amplified as a result of the MJO.

To close off this incredibly long winded response ( lol ), I was doing some snooping at the progression of January-February-March of 2018, and my lord the similarities are uncanny. I don’t exactly like analoging as a basis for a forecast, as I think every situation has a certain “flavor” or tendency, even in a similar atmospheric setup, but I stand by what I said early on in that this is the EXACT same progression, just 6-8 weeks sooner. What I’m seeing evolve this year is an EXACT match, and evolution thus far is matching the physical concepts.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:42 am

I continue to caution against any wholesale pattern change before the New Year, but I also continue to maintain that we just need to hold the line for now, and be patient. The 6z GFS Op showed the potential this morning at the end of its run, I just think it’s too quick.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:59 am

Speak of the devil……I’m not sure if this breaks any rules or not, so mods/Frank, if it does feel free to flag me and remove my post, but it’s relevant material from another site.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56275-december-2021/?do=findComment&comment=6216372

Well, the JMA has caught onto the -NAO/-AO and even hints at a +PNA in January

This teleconnection trifecta would bode well for colder & possibly snowier weather in the Northeast over time.

Could be a fun start to 2022. pic.twitter.com/Pkf0UZ8KZt
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) December 16, 2021

by **aiannone** Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:16 am

by **heehaw453** Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:40 am

Is there a just January one I wonder. That would not make sense with -EPO/-NAO showing up in guidance. Probably strictly La Nina used for that.

by **phil155** Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:03 pm

aiannone wrote:TWC:

UGH, I hope not

by **mmanisca** Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:42 pm

Getting to feel like this will be a lost winter. I dont like the way it seems everything has been pushed back..

by **phil155** Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:49 pm

mmanisca wrote:Getting to feel like this will be a lost winter. I dont like the way it seems everything has been pushed back..

Sadly getting that feeling as well, hoping I am wrong in a big way

by **MattyICE** Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:58 pm

mmanisca wrote:Getting to feel like this will be a lost winter. I dont like the way it seems everything has been pushed back..

Sorry but if you’ve paid ANY attention to what Ray (and others) have presented then you’d understand it was never supposed to get going this early.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:33 pm

amugs wrote:Please be right!

Still a huge negative west. But! That is a very aggressive NAO ridge. If it amplifies as much as this suggests we definitely could work with that.

MattyICE wrote:
mmanisca wrote:Getting to feel like this will be a lost winter. I dont like the way it seems everything has been pushed back..

Sorry but if you’ve paid ANY attention to what Ray (and others) have presented then you’d understand it was never supposed to get going this early.

Matty is right. Ray has done a nice job outlining his thoughts and he’s been consistent in saying a pattern change after the New Year, or even as far out as mid January. That said, that is likely when the full scale pattern changes which likely involves a SSW. Before then, we have the NAO going negative which will help our chances. It depends how strong the NAO ridge gets (what Mugs posted is very nice)

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:17 pm

aiannone wrote:TWC:

TWC does have a month by month breakdown, according to which the eastern US gets progressively and significantly WARMER into Feb and March.

Disconcerting for sure, but I'm not sweating that at all. TWC has no vested interest in being accurate in these seasonal outlooks. They release the outlook every 3 months and then as the outlook starts to bust, they simply release a revised outlook which typically just circles back directly to whatever it is that RB Won Kenobi has been harping on for the previous however many weeks.

And here is why the TWC seasonal outlooks bust out so frequently. If you watch the TWC video, dude makes it very clear he is only reacting to the east based La Nina, which by itself supports the projection. And then if you watch RBs video, he explains why he thinks this winter's east based Nina starts off warmer and dry as would be expected, but by around mid-Jan transforms into a cold and snowy pattern that lasts through the end of the winter.

So for now, their is no reason to think we have a winter of 2019/20 redux. Remember that infamous 'head fake' of a pattern change that ended up getting 'pushed back' by 7-10 days from late Jan all the way through April. lol- that was fun!!

Not only are we no where near in time to the pattern change that rb (and more recently many others) has forecast, a warm end to Dec and start Jan is EXACTLY what he said we were getting first. So, I'm not saying don't cry and whine about a warm Christmas. Chanukah for us started in November this year! That's just Evil or Very Mad

But, as of now, no need to be pessimistic beyond that- a nice middle half to winter (mid Jan-late Feb) seems at least as likely as not...imo.

by **heehaw453** Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:18 pm

This kind of pattern shown 10 days out works in these parts. Not large scale events, but certainly SWFE gradient/baroclinic zone storms can form and produce light/moderate events. This kind of regime would funnel in air from the arctic and not the pac maritime which is significant. Last year during most of latter December and January we got the PAC maritime express because of persistent trough in Alaska. Now that trough is in the PNA region which mitigates amplification of storms. That's why I say we will have chances just probably not big ones until that trough loosens up.

If this pattern manifests this way and we get blanked the entire month of December then that is what I would call bad luck.

What comes after this in January RB has been on for weeks now. I hope he is right.

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by **amugs** Thu Dec 16, 2021 5:36 pm

Here is your pattern changer and long range help.

Upstream, robust cyclonic Rossby-wave breaking across the Pacific, is one certain element that is consistent with -NAO developments, following a lag period. Persistent CWB via exit region of East Asian Pac. Jet through end of month = SPV perturbing through vertical heat fluxes. pic.twitter.com/yEMcanBHHD
— A ☈ mando ϟalvadore (@KaptMands) December 16, 2021

Your main wave source, not-coincidentally, derives from off the E. Asia coast, associated with that NW Pac, quasi-stationary trough. Here is your heat flux (vertically propagating Rossby Waves) pic.twitter.com/FsZ39kxynQ
— A ☈ mando ϟalvadore (@KaptMands) December 16, 2021

That N NAO being portrayed can be worked with as we did in 93-94, 06-07 with SWFE and the gradient be to our South.

by **amugs** Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:04 pm

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1471416490087927811?s=20

The upstream pattern is extremely complex and it is how the energy out of Canada is handled when it moves into the N Atlantic. The EC 'deflects' this on a negatively titled (NW to SE) trough into Iberia, bringing that risk of the E'ly, the GFS simply doesn't so this. pic.twitter.com/ix36e8wrOC
— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) December 16, 2021

by **amugs** Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:55 pm

West based NAO and N EPO. I do t care about 4he PDO being N the gradient will set up for us Ala 93-94n 06-07. Ice, snow type light to moderate event? Quite possibly and that is all we can ask for at this time. 2nd-3rd week of January ish I calling a NESIS Nor with what I seeing take shape overhead and in the Asia/WPAC region.. Balls to the wall!

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:12 pm

amugs wrote:West based NAO and N EPO. I do t care about 4he PDO being N the gradient will set up for us Ala 93-94n 06-07. Ice, snow type light to moderate event? Quite possibly and that is all we can ask for at this time. 2nd-3rd week of January ish I calling a NESIS Nor with what I seeing take shape overhead and in the Asia/WPAC region.. Balls to the wall!

I wasn’t going to say anything about the NESIS event, as I seen to have an uncanny ability to shoot myself in the foot by getting too excited lmao BUT, I must admit that I’ve had this inclination as well. I can see it basically coming as the pattern finally shifts, though; quite like the storm at the end of February 2018 (I mentioned this back in my original post). I don’t think it necessarily has to be “set-up” by the pattern per-se’. I think it very well could be a byproduct of the pattern setting up (Archumbault event).

As a quick update, one of these is not like others…..

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The green annotated cross is highlighting what’s known as Cahir’s Connection, or more generally, a 70N/70E ridge. This is a feature that I like to look for as an “anchoring” feature. Basically it’s a feature that works to orient the Northern Hemispheric pattern to enhance western North American ridging and eastern North American troughing. I mentioned this the other day when I saw the 18z GFS suite first hint at its development, and said that this is another domino in the evolution that I’m waiting to see start evolving after the New Year, but that we needed to see it continue to show up in the modeling to make sure that it’s not phantom. Well, as shown above, we now have it in all three major global ensembles. However, only the GEPS (GEM/CMC Ensemble) have a Northern Hemispheric alignment that makes physical sense in the presence of the 70N70/E ridge, as well as when earlier arguments and conceptions are considered. As such, I think both the GFS and Euro Ensembles are keeping the Aleutian ridge and western North American trough too far west/retracted in their depictions, and should correct toward the GDPS (GEM/CMC Ensemble) depiction in subsequent runs, with more ridging in western North America, and troughing in eastern North America. This would also fit the JMA progression posted earlier today in a tweet. Lets see how these models start behaving now, because this should get interesting.

by **rb924119** Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:19 pm

And, funny enough, the more that I look at that GEPS evolution at 500mb, there’s your snow storm probably for about the 3rd verbatim. Almost right on cue.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:50 am

And we may have a storm to track. Legit peeps Keeps moving up in time which is a beautiful trend.

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