Long Range Discussion 22.0

And, funny enough, the more that I look at that GEPS evolution at 500mb, there’s your snow storm probably for about the 3rd verbatim. Almost right on cue.

And we may have a storm to track. Legit peeps Keeps moving up in time which is a beautiful trend.

amugs wrote:And we may have a storm to track. Legit peeps Keeps moving up in time which is a beautiful trend.

Mugs, the fact that it’s STILL correcting gives me the slightest hope. I would think that IF there are to be additional adjustments I’d look for the models to feel that block a bit more. Shift that Atlantic trough into a more classic 50/50 position, shift that low above the Great Lakes into better position more SW to act as more of an anchor or fulcrum to pivot the southern stream around - and the western ridge is already in a pretty good spot especially compared to what’s been out there lately. Just need it to hold and spike a bit more. I think it’s still not likely, but it’s the only thing to track, so…lol

You can see the negative tilt and high heights on the southern trough and it's a bit out ahead of the northern energy. To me I'd like to see that northern piece dig and then it'd tug that southern thing right up the coast. But if it remains separate this probably gets kicked out. That is the most likely solution IMO based on what I see.

Regardless of this outcome I think before end of December we're getting something light/moderate. Climatology and pattern.

In order for that system to impact us significantly in a wintry way there MUST be some interaction with the northern Branch to introduce cold air.  And like was pointed out the N energy has to dig more to bring it up and bring some cold air.  Problem is though is the Pacicfic or west coast or PNA region is so negative that there really is no mechanism for it to dig leading me to agree that the scoot OTS or scrape is the most likely scenario.  Again even if the southern track is further N than currently modeled, without the back side phasing and injection of colder air from the N energy the system would likely be too warm anyway.  Overall the phase will likely be too late, but again the pattern isnt ready anyway, so for me wouldn't be unexpected at this stage.  Certainly worth monitoring as small changes could change my mind

I rather work with a fast moving clipper that dusts the area with snow for Christmas morning anyways 

I think that’s still on the table

I spy with my little some adjustments

The GFS Ensemble is seemingly having issues right now, but I like what the Operational run did this morning at 06z, and that’s where I think this whole progression will be headed. That idea is now finally receiving support from both the Euro Ensemble and the GEM/GEPS/CMC Ensemble. The adjustment by the Euro Ensemble is a MASSIVE win for now, and quite honestly, now looks the best to me overall (though I think the depth of the North American trough depicted in the GEM/GEPS/CMC Ensemble is better specifically), I want to see if it flips back at 12z. Not because I’m worried about the evolution, but because I’m simply curious given it’s recent poor performance thus far.

The NAO on the OP GFS this morning was nowhere near as west based as prior runs, which allowed the SE ridge to flex some muscle and bring milder storms into our area. 

We’re at a point where OPs and ENS do not agree and run to run things are changing faster than a baby’s diaper. Especially an Italian, over fed one. 

On a whole, the MJO wave we’ve all been interested in is trying really really hard to progress to phase 8. The Strat PV is still really strong at the top level, while the bottom level closer to the Trop is compromised from the active tropical forcing and -NAO development (wave 2 ridging), allowing warmer air to intrude and weaken the PV. This helps drive our AO negative in the weeks to come. But we really need this MJO wave to continue its eastward progression, and see if we can disrupt the PV on a much larger scale.

^^^ Definitely models want a continuous ridge from Mexico to Greenland.  If that happens Christmas would be warm 50's in these parts.  I suspect at this range though the ridge is probably misplaced as are the troughs.  So it could very well turn out chilly Christmas.  Still like between Christmas and NYE for a shot at light/moderate snow.

Ummmmmm……..

The models just wished us all a very merry New Year…….




Absolutely MASSIVE corrections here folks. Keep in mind these are ensemble means at Day 15. That trough signal over the U.S. for a lead time like that in multiple ensembles is no joke. You want crème de le crème Arctic air? YOU GOT IT!

“I think when we flip, we are going to flip HARD.” I haven’t checked, but that could very well be record challenging cold - you can’t get a much harder flip than that, and I think that’s just the beginning

These corrections should continue in subsequent runs, and I can’t wait to see tonight’s EURO Ensemble. But just seeing this has me over the top excited right now, in case you already couldn’t tell lol best part is that I think this only the beginning, because that look right there has POWDER KEG POTENTIAL stamped all over it. Mugsy, keep reelin’ brother, because we have to bring this whale in!!

Now, at face value, the models try to reassert the western North American trough the last few frames, but in my opinion that’s a false flag thanks to the maintenance of the 70N/70E ridge. So, just like what happened tonight at ~Day 13, we should see continued corrections to less trough out west with the heart of the trough (and actually, the main Tropospheric Polar Vortex lobe) centered over the heart of North America. Additionally, we should also see the Pacific side of the equation improve as hemispheric and tropical forcings finally begin to constructively interfere. Trust the process, folks

The EURO didn’t want to be left out of the party, so it decided to be a cool cat and join the crowd.

RB I love your optimism and insight, many professionals are joining you with cautious optimism which is encouraging to say the least. The cold being advertised is starting to warm my heart lol

The mjo on the euro isn't stalling near 6/7 anymore. Its moving along. You have to wonder if the typhoon is messing up the models and we will see see a different outcome really soon.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

Models keep digging the trough in the west. It's going to be hard to get snow in the east with that even with a negative NAO.

Hopefully the models are wrong and they show colder outcomes in future runs. I think the MJO is messing things up being stuck in

Rb love it and you sound like me now!!! And that's a great thing kid LOL.
Okay this is EXACTLY what we need to see for the MJO and the waves that will affect it favorably. The one meteorology aspect I am noticing and have read about is how Weatern Pacific Tyohoons wreck havoc on the pattern Upstream and the MJO and models trying g to resolve the placement of the pressure patterns and subsequent jet structures. The latent heat release of these typhoons especially Rai that just hit the Philippines will aid in further disruption of the SPV due to all the warm moist water vapor that will travel poleward, physics of charged particles go to the magnetic pole. Which is actually in Siberia right now and is migrating towards the Indian Ocean. Another days discussion.

This a map of the outlined waves and what timeframe and what phase they will be in. IF this comes to fruition Rb nailed this like a piece of door molding to the door jamb!!

This is why we have to take the long range with a grain of salt. Big difference between the gfs at 18z vs 0z. More of a trough in the east.

I’ve been quiet. I am just not sure. I am just not that excited about any of it right now. Until the PNA region changes I just don’t know. The PNA is currently sitting between -3 & -4 standard deviations and forecast is to get down to -5 over the next 3-5 days, and remain somewhere between -4 & -5 for 7-10days beyond that before slowly coming back up as we head into the first week of Jan. But even then it’s still -1 to -2. With a PNA that negative it give the atmosphere a back door to slip out of. It allows the cold to pool in the west despite  the -NAO/-AO/-EPO,  Make no mistake it will get colder than it has been for sure, and there may be some snow chances, but the sustained cold and more importantly and likely is the storm track is likely to remain meh at best. At least for awhile.

I think very cautious optimism is needed right now.

sroc4 wrote:I’ve been quiet. I am just not sure. I am just not that excited about any of it right now. Until the PNA region changes I just don’t know. The PNA is currently sitting between -3 & -4 standard deviations and forecast is to get down to -5 over the next 3-5 days, and remain somewhere between -4 & -5 for 7-10days beyond that before slowly coming back up as we head into the first week of Jan. But even then it’s still -1 to -2. With a PNA that negative it give the atmosphere a back door to slip out of. It allows the cold to pool in the west despite  the -NAO/-AO/-EPO,  Make no mistake it will get colder than it has been for sure, and there may be some snow chances, but the sustained cold and more importantly and likely is the storm track is likely to remain meh at best. At least for awhile.

I think very cautious optimism is needed right now.

No question about it that it's nickel and dime stuff at best until PAC becomes less hostile. If AO starts reversing in January to positive territory, then my thought is we'll be potentially anomalously low snowfall this year. Even with a decent -AO I still think we run the risk of cold/dry conditions with below normal snowfall if PAC doesn't want to play ball. Any perturbation of the PV is high risk/reward kind of thing. Very hard to know if those effects until the split or displacement occurs. I share that cautious optimism.

if true then whoa!!

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

Frank or Mugs please explain. I have barely a clue what this represents. I know it’s something I’d like just from Mugsys reaction and Frank’s comment but would love to know the reason. Also what time period are we talking about this possible 180?

Thanks I advance.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

Frank or Mugs please explain. I have barely a clue what this represents. I know it’s something I’d like just from Mugsys reaction and Frank’s comment but would love to know the reason. Also what time period are we talking about this possible 180?

Thanks I advance.

I’m not them, lol, but this is my stab - VERBATIM this indicates a reversal of the zonal winds way up at the top of the stratosphere. This would end our period of a very strong (positive) polar vortex and suggest at least a significant weakening - maybe even a sudden stratospheric warming event or something in between (regardless it would portend a negative Arctic Oscillation and help displace colder air further south). If the strat and trop are coupled there is still frequently a lag of usually 2 weeks before results propagate down to our sensible weather. Could be right inline with a lot of what Ray has been highlighting as his process and timeline, if correct.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

Frank or Mugs please explain. I have barely a clue what this represents. I know it’s something I’d like just from Mugsys reaction and Frank’s comment but would love to know the reason. Also what time period are we talking about this possible 180?

Thanks I advance.

Not a whole lot to add to Matty Ice's comments.  

Click the link.  This is the current winds at the 10 mb level.  Save this link to favorites and come back to it in a few weeks to see how it has evolved.

For those who have never seen this site its pretty cool.  Bottom left click on "EARTH" to play with the different levels of the atmosphere from 10 mb(hpa) of the stratosphere down to the surface.  Also left click and hold anywhere over the image and move the mouse to manipulate the position of the earth view and use your mouses wheel to zoom in and out.  

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-80.99,72.04,414

CP has awoken from his slumber!!
MattICE ICE baby this would change the complexity of the pattern and cause higher pressures over the Arctic dislodged arctic air southward. This shows a perturbed polar vortex. The affects would be very positive overall.
Good explanation Matty.

Now for the MJO wave. See the greenish colors those are our waves, lower pressures. The map underneath shows the phases of the MJO. Remember phase 8-1-2 are the heart of winter phases we do very well with wintry weather.

We are in phase seven going into 8.
Then you see at Jan 6th time through the end of the run the wave develops in the Indian Ocean and is a strong 1 then 2 as we end Jan. This aligns with Rb thoughts on 2nd week to 3rd week things take off. Patience for sure but looking very good.