Long Range Discussion 22.0

Wheezer wrote:Judging by satellite,  I'm not even convinced MJO is firmly in 7.  The wheel has been very generous in positioning the wave in 7 the past week at least.  The wave is drowning on the invisible border of 6/7.

The MJO plots reflect a composite of multiple factors (OLR, 850hPa wind anomalies, velocity potential, and something else that I don’t remember haha). So while one of these may not look like an idealized Phase 7, there are other components that do.

lglickman1 wrote:Is there still enthusiasm for a significantly positive change in the pattern for snow lovers, or is that off the table now?

I think there is still A LOT of enthusiasm going forward, we just have to be patient. Just to reflect on some things that were presented:

-the target period to see any notable pattern change has always been Week 2 into Week 3 of January
-the MJO IS NOT a driver of the pattern this year; it’s a passenger. Recall that I said the La Niña began its shift east back in mid-November, and that atmospherically, we’ve seen a lagged response of about two months. Two months from mid-November is mid-January, and until then, the MJO would basically be in a “hurry up and wait”/standby mode, as it will have to wait for the atmosphere to begin shifting its associated vertical circulations in response to the shift of the La Niña. Once we see that shift, which we will beginning around the New Year, the MJO should begin to slowly but steadily progress, and constructively interfere with the La Niña signal. Combined with everything else, the pattern will flip.

Lastly, I’ve seen talk about how strong the Stratospheric Polar Vortex looks to remain, and images posted of the forecast wind intensities at 60°N latitude and at 10hPa. I’d like to push back on that. That’s a snapshot (essentially) of a single location. When does the weather EVER only happen at a single location? Does this look like a strong PV to you?




I’d say not at all if it was, both the 50 and 10 hOa vortexes would be stacked and circular centered over the North Pole. The 50 hPa vortex is instead split (and remains that way through the ENTIRE run, and has been, with no sign of consolidating thanks to the MJO effects I detailed in the video), and the 10 hOa vortex remains extremely perturbed with the main lobe (anomaly) centered over Hudson Bay. So, just because the plots showing the strength at 60°N don’t look good, does not mean that our situation and expected atmospheric progression also don’t look good.

Stay the course, folks, hold the line, and trust the process. Merry Christmas, y’all

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Is there still enthusiasm for a significantly positive change in the pattern for snow lovers, or is that off the table now?

I think there is still A LOT of enthusiasm going forward, we just have to be patient. Just to reflect on some things that were presented:

-the target period to see any notable pattern change has always been Week 2 into Week 3 of January
-the MJO IS NOT a driver of the pattern this year; it’s a passenger. Recall that I said the La Niña began its shift east back in mid-November, and that atmospherically, we’ve seen a lagged response of about two months. Two months from mid-November is mid-January, and until then, the MJO would basically be in a “hurry up and wait”/standby mode, as it will have to wait for the atmosphere to begin shifting its associated vertical circulations in response to the shift of the La Niña. Once we see that shift, which we will beginning around the New Year, the MJO should begin to slowly but steadily progress, and constructively interfere with the La Niña signal. Combined with everything else, the pattern will flip.

Lastly, I’ve seen talk about how strong the Stratospheric Polar Vortex looks to remain, and images posted of the forecast wind intensities at 60°N latitude and at 10hPa. I’d like to push back on that. That’s a snapshot (essentially) of a single location. When does the weather EVER only happen at a single location? Does this look like a strong PV to you?




I’d say not at all if it was, both the 50 and 10 hOa vortexes would be stacked and circular centered over the North Pole. The 50 hPa vortex is instead split (and remains that way through the ENTIRE run, and has been, with no sign of consolidating thanks to the MJO effects I detailed in the video), and the 10 hOa vortex remains extremely perturbed with the main lobe (anomaly) centered over Hudson Bay. So, just because the plots showing the strength at 60°N don’t look good, does not mean that our situation and expected atmospheric progression also don’t look good.

Stay the course, folks, hold the line, and trust the process. Merry Christmas, y’all

Hmm but you’re posting height maps and not zonal winds. The zonal winds at all levels of the Strat matter, but most SSWEs of significance to our area take place from top-down. Mugs posted an image at 10hPa showing an extreme scenario, and I was merely responding to the fact that scenario no longer was being forecasted on the same model. When I look at the zonal winds across all levels, I’m still seeing a pretty healthy vortex who is withstanding trop impacts at the lower levels.

Interesting discussions. My 2cents are that IF, and I stress if, the orientation/axis of the Strat vortex turns out like the images above then we likely would still see decent troughing in the East.




Contrast that with the current orientation/axis. This is just an observation here over several years but where ever the 10mb Strat vortex axis lies so does the mean trough. Not sure I can translate that observation into any concrete science but it sure lines up with the current pattern.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Is there still enthusiasm for a significantly positive change in the pattern for snow lovers, or is that off the table now?

I think there is still A LOT of enthusiasm going forward, we just have to be patient. Just to reflect on some things that were presented:

-the target period to see any notable pattern change has always been Week 2 into Week 3 of January
-the MJO IS NOT a driver of the pattern this year; it’s a passenger. Recall that I said the La Niña began its shift east back in mid-November, and that atmospherically, we’ve seen a lagged response of about two months. Two months from mid-November is mid-January, and until then, the MJO would basically be in a “hurry up and wait”/standby mode, as it will have to wait for the atmosphere to begin shifting its associated vertical circulations in response to the shift of the La Niña. Once we see that shift, which we will beginning around the New Year, the MJO should begin to slowly but steadily progress, and constructively interfere with the La Niña signal. Combined with everything else, the pattern will flip.

Lastly, I’ve seen talk about how strong the Stratospheric Polar Vortex looks to remain, and images posted of the forecast wind intensities at 60°N latitude and at 10hPa. I’d like to push back on that. That’s a snapshot (essentially) of a single location. When does the weather EVER only happen at a single location? Does this look like a strong PV to you?




I’d say not at all if it was, both the 50 and 10 hOa vortexes would be stacked and circular centered over the North Pole. The 50 hPa vortex is instead split (and remains that way through the ENTIRE run, and has been, with no sign of consolidating thanks to the MJO effects I detailed in the video), and the 10 hOa vortex remains extremely perturbed with the main lobe (anomaly) centered over Hudson Bay. So, just because the plots showing the strength at 60°N don’t look good, does not mean that our situation and expected atmospheric progression also don’t look good.

Stay the course, folks, hold the line, and trust the process. Merry Christmas, y’all

Hmm but you’re posting height maps and not zonal winds. The zonal winds at all levels of the Strat matter, but most SSWEs of significance to our area take place from top-down. Mugs posted an image at 10hPa showing an extreme scenario, and I was merely responding to the fact that scenario no longer was being forecasted on the same model. When I look at the zonal winds across all levels, I’m still seeing a pretty healthy vortex who is withstanding trop impacts at the lower levels.

My post wasn’t directed at you, Frank, or anybody in particular. It was just a general comment based on what I’ve been reading and hearing from various places. So please don’t take that as a personal “attack” lol

Getting to the important part, though; you’re right. I did post different maps. But, you can infer a lot. For example, the three charts you posted in response show that the forecast wind speeds are generally expected to average out near “normal” levels, with some minor oscillations about the long-term mean (thick black line, forecast in red/orange). Now, if we look at the height anomaly maps that I posted, you can infer the relative wind speeds based on the assessment of the height anomalies that since the degree of height anomalies generally offset each other EXCEPT for the area around Hudson Bay, and their respective oscillations in magnitude, that again, the relative strength of the vortex should be approximately “normal”. BUT, my initial argument regarding the role in the pattern change was not necessarily based solely on the intensity; though, yes, I did present arguments that the vortexes would weaken from what we were seeing earlier on (and they have/are), but the main focus of my arguments was to highlight the fact that the orientation and shape of the vortex is what matters and how THAT would evolve. And, that is evolving PRECISELY according to plan, even though the wind speed graphics may not show a “weak” vortex when it comes exclusively to wind speed.

Does that make sense?

With the induced warming now becoming an ever increasing player, and the additional fluxes from the persistent European and Aleutian ridging all working constructively, it’s working to pinch the vortexes in half essentially in such a manner that results in a favorable orientation for us, and over a prolonged period even though the relative wind speed is still average. It’s much improved over the classic doughnut sitting over the North Pole like we had earlier this year. And with how couples the Troposphere is with the Stratosphere, we are on track. At least in my opinion.

sroc4 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:Is there still enthusiasm for a significantly positive change in the pattern for snow lovers, or is that off the table now?

I think there is still A LOT of enthusiasm going forward, we just have to be patient. Just to reflect on some things that were presented:

-the target period to see any notable pattern change has always been Week 2 into Week 3 of January
-the MJO IS NOT a driver of the pattern this year; it’s a passenger. Recall that I said the La Niña began its shift east back in mid-November, and that atmospherically, we’ve seen a lagged response of about two months. Two months from mid-November is mid-January, and until then, the MJO would basically be in a “hurry up and wait”/standby mode, as it will have to wait for the atmosphere to begin shifting its associated vertical circulations in response to the shift of the La Niña. Once we see that shift, which we will beginning around the New Year, the MJO should begin to slowly but steadily progress, and constructively interfere with the La Niña signal. Combined with everything else, the pattern will flip.

Lastly, I’ve seen talk about how strong the Stratospheric Polar Vortex looks to remain, and images posted of the forecast wind intensities at 60°N latitude and at 10hPa. I’d like to push back on that. That’s a snapshot (essentially) of a single location. When does the weather EVER only happen at a single location? Does this look like a strong PV to you?




I’d say not at all if it was, both the 50 and 10 hOa vortexes would be stacked and circular centered over the North Pole. The 50 hPa vortex is instead split (and remains that way through the ENTIRE run, and has been, with no sign of consolidating thanks to the MJO effects I detailed in the video), and the 10 hOa vortex remains extremely perturbed with the main lobe (anomaly) centered over Hudson Bay. So, just because the plots showing the strength at 60°N don’t look good, does not mean that our situation and expected atmospheric progression also don’t look good.

Stay the course, folks, hold the line, and trust the process. Merry Christmas, y’all

Hmm but you’re posting height maps and not zonal winds. The zonal winds at all levels of the Strat matter, but most SSWEs of significance to our area take place from top-down. Mugs posted an image at 10hPa showing an extreme scenario, and I was merely responding to the fact that scenario no longer was being forecasted on the same model. When I look at the zonal winds across all levels, I’m still seeing a pretty healthy vortex who is withstanding trop impacts at the lower levels.

Interesting discussions. My 2cents are that IF, and I stress if, the orientation/axis of the Strat vortex turns out like the images above then we likely would still see decent troughing in the East.  




Contrast that with the current orientation/axis.  This is just an observation here over several years but where ever  the 10mb Strat vortex axis lies so does the mean trough. Not sure I can translate that observation into any concrete science but it sure lines up with the current pattern.

100% Scott. And this process has been ongoing, and will continue. But with the additional input now from the tropics and European/Aleutian ridging now constructively interfering, it’s going to more drastically effect the PV at all levels, and also sustain those impacts longer. This why partially why I strongly believe that once we flip, we pretty much run the table (with brief reshuffles). The rest comes from how I expect the MJO to behave in response to the altered ENSO state.

Kinda for fun, but check the 18z GFS - it’s showing where I think we are headed right on schedule. This is two runs in a row now, along with the GEFS AND EC Ensemble. Oo, and mugsy, if you’ve got your ears on, 18z GFS Op gave us our NESIS event to boot

sroc4 wrote:In Nina years past when you get a "westerly wind burst", a run of negative SOI values, Ie: 3-5days min, amidst a strongly positive base state, which is def where we have been, about 7days later, (give or take), the tendency is to get a trough to arrive in the east.  The past 2 days we may have been seeing the beginning of a true westerly wind burst.  Lets see if this trend rings true this season if we get a few more negative SOI days.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

First let me say I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas.  Quick update on this point I made back on the 21st.  Unfort the westerly wind burst fell short of the 3-5day minimum neg SOI values criteria, as we flipped right back to positive after only about 3 days of negatives indicating it was a very weak westerly wind burst at best.  Not enough to push back on the base state of the atmosphere it would appear.; therefore no trough into the east and no real potential snow threat in the immediate future.  Not only were the negatives short lived, but we flipped back to extremely positive as daily SOI values are back up in the +40's range for the past 2 days indicating very strong easterlies across the Trop Pac.  

I have been stating this all along but when all is said and done regarding this this season's ENSO status, this La Nina will likely be classified as a moderate one.  By definition all the technical criteria have not officially been met yet to call it that, but it is really really close where we stand now, and the atmosphere has certainly been behaving as such.

Here are the latest SSTA for the last 4 months.  You can see the month of Dec has only enhanced the cold anomalies relative to November.  If you remember the discussions we had regarding this back at the end of Nov this was to be expected.  Also take note of the warmer anomalies building to the west of 180*(the dateline).  This could have an impact on ENSO as we end the winter season and head into the summer, ie: once the easterlies finally officially let go for good.  

For now I just don't see anything to get excited about.  I hate to say it; I really do.  For those who know me know my bias is cold and snow.  But again objectively the next 10-14 is just meh for me.  Let me also state that I am not saying that it cant or wont snow either, esp around the 2nd-4th time frame.  For now Ill be monitoring the progression and state of the Strat, looking for things like westerly wind bursts, and/or perfectly timed pieces of energy that sneak in under the radar.   One last thing to remember is that at least according the the LR forecasters on this board the state of the pattern was not entirely unexpected through this stage.  
 

Scott, great post, and I agree 100%. It’s what’s gaining momentum beyond that Day 14 mark that should start to get your winter weather juices flowing hehe that said, I do have a couple of things:

1. Where did you get those images? I’ve been looking intermittently to try find something similar and have (so far) come up empty lol

2. You brought up a key point about the oceanic response once we get the atmospheric circulation to shift, and allow the anomaly configuration to change. But I don’t think it will take until the end of Winter into the spring to begin having beneficial effects on other tropical modes (MJO). If we get the progression that I think we will, and that you touched on, those warm anomalies should pretty rapidly shift eastward and toward the surface (at least to a degree), as the atmospheric “thumb” that they’ve been building under (the easterly wind) will be removed. You get positive SST anomalies near the dateline constructively interfering with the La Niña standing wave that’s further east, and you can why I think the MJO will cycle through 7-8-1-2 with authority again as we head into March, and keep winter rolling

rb924119 wrote:Scott, great post, and I agree 100%. It’s what’s gaining momentum beyond that Day 14 mark that should start to get your winter weather juices flowing hehe that said, I do have a couple of things:

1. Where did you get those images? I’ve been looking intermittently to try find something similar and have (so far) come up empty lol

2. You brought up a key point about the oceanic response once we get the atmospheric circulation to shift, and allow the anomaly configuration to change. But I don’t think it will take until the end of Winter into the spring to begin having beneficial effects on other tropical modes (MJO). If we get the progression that I think we will, and that you touched on, those warm anomalies should pretty rapidly shift eastward and toward the surface (at least to a degree), as the atmospheric “thumb” that they’ve been building under (the easterly wind) will be removed. You get positive SST anomalies near the dateline constructively interfering with the La Niña standing wave that’s further east, and you can why I think the MJO will cycle through 7-8-1-2 with authority again as we head into March, and keep winter rolling

Here is the link to the image I posted above.  Love this site:  http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml

For the record my comments about the warm pool building west of the date line was more of an indication of an eventual shift towards a weak, or maybe mod El Nino as we head deep into the summer and early fall next season.  Obviously once the easterlies begin to let up we get the warmer waters begin to upwell and moderate the La Nina from west to east as we go along.  That said a potential fly in the ointment, esp to some of your ideas, exists IMHO.   My worry is that once the La Nina reaches its peak, which for the record I think we are still a couple of weeks away from, and the easterlies begin to let up rather than simply releasing the standing wave into a true propagation straight from phase 7 into 8 and beyond, in addition to warming the SSTA around the date line, things will also warm further west concurrently or even prior to the latter, leading to a collapse of the current standing wave and a re-emergence into phases 4,or 5,or 6 before propagating further through 7,8,1, and maybe 2 (since the resistance from preventing the current wave from propagating will have been alleviated).   What this could mean for us is while the temps in our region look to be colder as we head into the new year as prev stated the storm track will still be less than ideal and we will still fight for snow.  But IF the MJO collapses and re-emerges in one of those warmer phases as suggested then after the period of overall colder temps(between now and Jan 7th or so) relative to the last few weeks we get the dreaded "JANUARY THAW" further delaying things.  

I will cont to be cautiously optimistic about things, but this could def be a mechanism to cont to stall things, ESP if the Strat just doesn't pan out.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Scott, great post, and I agree 100%. It’s what’s gaining momentum beyond that Day 14 mark that should start to get your winter weather juices flowing hehe that said, I do have a couple of things:

1. Where did you get those images? I’ve been looking intermittently to try find something similar and have (so far) come up empty lol

2. You brought up a key point about the oceanic response once we get the atmospheric circulation to shift, and allow the anomaly configuration to change. But I don’t think it will take until the end of Winter into the spring to begin having beneficial effects on other tropical modes (MJO). If we get the progression that I think we will, and that you touched on, those warm anomalies should pretty rapidly shift eastward and toward the surface (at least to a degree), as the atmospheric “thumb” that they’ve been building under (the easterly wind) will be removed. You get positive SST anomalies near the dateline constructively interfering with the La Niña standing wave that’s further east, and you can why I think the MJO will cycle through 7-8-1-2 with authority again as we head into March, and keep winter rolling

Here is the link to the image I posted above.  Love this site:  http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml

For the record my comments about the warm pool building west of the date line was more of an indication of an eventual shift towards a weak, or maybe mod El Nino as we head deep into the summer and early fall next season.  Obviously once the easterlies begin to let up we get the warmer waters begin to upwell and moderate the La Nina from west to east as we go along.  That said a potential fly in the ointment, esp to some of your ideas, exists IMHO.   My worry is that once the La Nina reaches its peak, which for the record I think we are still a couple of weeks away from, and the easterlies begin to let up rather than simply releasing the standing wave into a true propagation straight from phase 7 into 8 and beyond, in addition to warming the SSTA around the date line, things will also warm further west concurrently or even prior to the latter, leading to a collapse of the current standing wave and a re-emergence into phases 4,or 5,or 6 before propagating further through 7,8,1, and maybe 2 (since the resistance from preventing the current wave from propagating will have been alleviated).   What this could mean for us is while the temps in our region look to be colder as we head into the new year as prev stated the storm track will still be less than ideal and we will still fight for snow.  But IF the MJO collapses and re-emerges in one of those warmer phases as suggested then after the period of overall colder temps(between now and Jan 7th or so) relative to the last few weeks we get the dreaded "JANUARY THAW" further delaying things.  

I will cont to be cautiously optimistic about things, but this could def be a mechanism to cont to stall things, ESP if the Strat just doesn't pan out.

Ah, thank you muchly, brother!!

I know what your point was, I was just expanding on the ideas a bit since we both seem to be on a similar train of thought with that evolution. Regarding your concerns, I definitely understand them, but I don’t think we need to worry too much. As the atmospheric circulation responds to the ENSO state and the forcing for ascent slowly shifts east, so too will areas of forcing for descent. So, assuming that you shift your zone of ascent from, say, 85E—125E, to 125E-165E, that means that the countering subsidence will also shift eastward, closer to 85E, and therefore, the western reaches of the Maritime Continent ( Phases 3-4/5). And in fact, that is exactly what’s expected to happen:



Additionally, when you have deep convection that repeatedly fires over the same areas, eventually, the thermal energy that process removes over the span of months will be greater than the amount of energy that the water can continue to supply. So, you end up with a “convective shadow” atmospherically. This is similar to the wakes left by tropical systems in the oceanic heat content. So, if you can get the atmospheric subsidence to overlap with this convective shadow, then they will largely work to dampen the intensity of smaller-scale convective waves that propagate through those areas. Since this is exactly what I expect to happen, that’s why I’m not too concerned with the possibility of the MJO rotating through these phases at an increased amplitude, or for an extended period, which would then allow other factors (such as the Strat) to drive our pattern alone until the MJO would again start to gain amplitude toward Phase 7.

Wheezer wrote:It just seems like we've  been poo-pooing this LaNina event far to long as record warmth has inundated the lower 48 all winter. And now we see a +80 point rise in SOI in just over just a few days,  which tells me , atm , that LaNina is well in control  still.

Who’s been disregarding the La Niña? If anything, I feel like we have collectively been acknowledging the fact that it has, and continues to drive the pattern.

dkodgis wrote:And…we watch paint dry

We’re facing the Guns of warmth now, Damian, but we’ll get the sweet smell of Roses later - “all we need is just a little patience”.

Not gonna lie, I thought that was pretty clever lmao

Remember, Week 2 into Week 3 of January has always been my target period for the flip before we should largely run the rest of the table with Winter. Again, it’s only my opinion, but so far, the cards that I was expecting to be played have been, so I see no reason to abandon what’s gotten me to this point.