Long Range Discussion 22.0

Great discussion in here by sroc and heehaw about the possible event a few days from now. I’ve not been paying attention, as all of my focus has been on the extended, but, it would be a nice change of pace for sure haha unfortunately, with the way my schedule will be, I probably won’t have time to chime in, but if I can, I will. If not, I’m sure we’ll have plenty of other opportunities coming up besides, we’re in good hands with these two

Interesting changes afoot with respect to the MJO forecasts:





Compared to recent runs, both the EURO and GFS Ensemble are longer and stronger in Phase 8 before returning more briefly but stronger into Phase 7 and then coming back out into Phase 8 with more amplitude. The CFS generally keeps the wave progressing along, though it is known to have a bias for that. In this case, however, I think the CFS evolution is more on track since the other guidance is seemingly headed in that direction. I also like it now because it is aligning with my preconceived ideas.

Regarding the maps, I don’t think last night’s EURO Ensemble is correct in its depiction of the evolution, and even at the end of its run, it began adjusting toward the GFS and GEM Ensembles, which both more or less evolve how I am expecting. On top of that, this should be an approximation of where we are headed based on the interplay between La Niña and the MJO Phase 8:



Looks very similar to the GFS and GEM Ensembles, doesn’t it?




I do think that there’s some room for a slightly further east correction in both of these, which would align very well with the composite, and I think we will see that as we get closer. Just my opinion, though.

rb924119 wrote:Interesting changes afoot with respect to the MJO forecasts:





Compared to recent runs, both the EURO and GFS Ensemble are longer and stronger in Phase 8 before returning more briefly but stronger into Phase 7 and then coming back out into Phase 8 with more amplitude. The CFS generally keeps the wave progressing along, though it is known to have a bias for that. In this case, however, I think the CFS evolution is more on track since the other guidance is seemingly headed in that direction. I also like it now because it is aligning with my preconceived ideas.

Regarding the maps, I don’t think last night’s EURO Ensemble is correct in its depiction of the evolution, and even at the end of its run, it began adjusting toward the GFS and GEM Ensembles, which both more or less evolve how I am expecting. On top of that, this should be an approximation of where we are headed based on the interplay between La Niña and the MJO Phase 8:



Looks very similar to the GFS and GEM Ensembles, doesn’t it?




I do think that there’s some room for a slightly further east correction in both of these, which would align very well with the composite, and I think we will see that as we get closer. Just my opinion, though.

Very 2014/15 look there!

heehaw453 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Interesting changes afoot with respect to the MJO forecasts:





Compared to recent runs, both the EURO and GFS Ensemble are longer and stronger in Phase 8 before returning more briefly but stronger into Phase 7 and then coming back out into Phase 8 with more amplitude. The CFS generally keeps the wave progressing along, though it is known to have a bias for that. In this case, however, I think the CFS evolution is more on track since the other guidance is seemingly headed in that direction. I also like it now because it is aligning with my preconceived ideas.

Regarding the maps, I don’t think last night’s EURO Ensemble is correct in its depiction of the evolution, and even at the end of its run, it began adjusting toward the GFS and GEM Ensembles, which both more or less evolve how I am expecting. On top of that, this should be an approximation of where we are headed based on the interplay between La Niña and the MJO Phase 8:



Looks very similar to the GFS and GEM Ensembles, doesn’t it?




I do think that there’s some room for a slightly further east correction in both of these, which would align very well with the composite, and I think we will see that as we get closer. Just my opinion, though.

Very 2014/15 look there!

Wow, what a memory!! And what a match!!

Significant storm signal on the GFS and GEM Ensembles 14th-16th, in case anybody was wondering

I'm going to go Rayno on here.  Snowfall chances usually occur with cold air on the way in and out.  After 1/6 we stand to get some decent cold air.  There is significant western ridging occurring at that time too.  So I would say that is another window.  These may not work out, but at least there is something better to look at than a perpetual trough hanging out in PNA land.

heehaw453 wrote:I'm going to go Rayno on here.  Snowfall chances usually occur with cold air on the way in and out.  After 1/6 we stand to get some decent cold air.  There is significant western ridging occurring at that time too.  So I would say that is another window.  These may not work out, but at least there is something better to look at than a perpetual trough hanging out in PNA land.

Gahhh!! You beat me to it!! Haha I was just looking at this lmao unfortunately, I don’t think that the pattern will be quite ready yet to give us the goods on this one, but central New England and points north will likely do well in my opinion. DEFINITELY bears watching, though, as this is the beginning of the transitional window, and like you said, storms tend accompany these changes. WE TRACK!!

amugs wrote:That's my call going back 2 or 3rd week NESIS storm rb ^^^.
Also, The Hovmoller maps I will post later but the show the wave going to 7/8 border and then into 8. MJO phase 5/6 did some dirty work for a + EAMT where that warm tropical air hits the massive east Asian mountains and lack of better terms torques the atmosphere above it perturbed it greatly. All that warm air then can cause perturbation in the PV and it also has upstream affects on the PAC JET pattern since it can create Higher Pressures over the region and  lower pressures over the Korean Kamchuck Pennisula with HP to its east retracting a anticyclonic break to the jet structure. This then affects everything to its east and above in the Arctic. MJO wave is impossible the tropics help dictate the pattern.

1/3 may kick us off in a crappy pattern. GEFS show a lean at Delmarva region.
33 rain wx

Yeah, we’ve both been bullish on the NESIS threat during that period, and I can’t wait to see the Hovmoellers later, because that timing and progression would be right on cue. Keep reelin’ brother!!

If you want snow on Sunday/Monday then this is the look you want to see.  Very vigorous s/w energy around a digging trough.  We just don't see support so far on guidance besides GFS.  This NAM is only to demonstrate the look.  

heehaw453 wrote:If you want snow on Sunday/Monday then this is the look you want to see.  Very vigorous s/w energy around a digging trough.  We just don't see support so far on guidance besides GFS.  This NAM is only to demonstrate the look.  

All it takes is one or two runs.  It doesnt matter which model......

Im not concerned about surface panels. This 18Z GFS going nuclear with this storm. IMO coastal areas would be hammered with kind of look. Eastern LI and coastal NJ in particular.

GFS for the coastal folks.  

Irish wrote:You guys can't possibly be talking about a storm this Sunday as the temps hit 60!  No?  Looks like a complete wash out all weekend.

It would likely be Monday am

This panel says it all.  Yeah you'd want it about 75 miles north or so, but those are details that can't be known ATTM.  Look at tilt of the trough and the strength of the ULL.  I'm out of the big game potential geographically and it excites me just to see it.  LOL.

sroc4 wrote:

Irish wrote:You guys can't possibly be talking about a storm this Sunday as the temps hit 60!  No?  Looks like a complete wash out all weekend.

It would likely be Monday am

Im not quite ready to look at the details at the surface yet, BUT GFS has dew points falling into the upper 20's and low 30's by Sunday eve and then down to mid to low twenties right as the precip moves in during the wee hrs of Monday am. Keep in mind the rain and warm temps from the weekend will drag a cold front through. If dew points do fall similar to what the GFS is showing ahead of the precip then we have alot of room for dynamic/evaporative cooling to take place quickly dropping the surface temps.

This is all preliminary.

heehaw453 wrote:This panel says it all.  Yeah you'd want it about 75 miles north or so, but those are details that can't be known ATTM.  Look at tilt of the trough and the strength of the ULL.  I'm out of the big game potential geographically and it excites me just to see it.  LOL.

Take a quick peek at the jet streak on the GFS between 300mb & 250mb.  Again exact timing and positioning and temp profiles still need a day or two of ironing but that JS might indicate the precip shield should be further N than the surface reflection indicates.

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This panel says it all.  Yeah you'd want it about 75 miles north or so, but those are details that can't be known ATTM.  Look at tilt of the trough and the strength of the ULL.  I'm out of the big game potential geographically and it excites me just to see it.  LOL.

Take a quick peek at the jet streak on the GFS between 300mb & 250mb.  Again exact timing and positioning and temp profiles still need a day or two of ironing but that JS might indicate the precip shield should be further N than the surface reflection indicates.

Totally agree and good point. The tilt of the trough indicative of much broader precip field too. That's why I was saying not even looking at the surface panels. This look would hammer your area and coastal NJ.

There needs to be some more support though among other guidance. GFS could be playing a cruel trick LOL. Seen it over amplify system before only to pull back within 48 hours. So for now it's a soft sell for me.

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This panel says it all.  Yeah you'd want it about 75 miles north or so, but those are details that can't be known ATTM.  Look at tilt of the trough and the strength of the ULL.  I'm out of the big game potential geographically and it excites me just to see it.  LOL.

Take a quick peek at the jet streak on the GFS between 300mb & 250mb.  Again exact timing and positioning and temp profiles still need a day or two of ironing but that JS might indicate the precip shield should be further N than the surface reflection indicates.

Totally agree and good point.  The tilt of the trough indicative of much broader precip field too.  That's why I was saying not even looking at the surface panels.  This look would hammer your area and coastal NJ.  

There needs to be some more support though among other guidance.  GFS could be playing a cruel trick LOL.  Seen it over amplify system before only to pull back within 48 hours.  So for now it's a soft sell for me.

Could not agree more. Until I see the Euro shift I will not get excited. Euro and CMC have been steadfast in keeping it very positively tilted with very little phasing of the energy. As a general rule When the GFS and Euro differ in the track the final solns ends up somewhere in the middle of the cone they create with their differing storm tracks. If that holds true it still will be a swing and miss. 18z euro rolling now.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This panel says it all.  Yeah you'd want it about 75 miles north or so, but those are details that can't be known ATTM.  Look at tilt of the trough and the strength of the ULL.  I'm out of the big game potential geographically and it excites me just to see it.  LOL.

Take a quick peek at the jet streak on the GFS between 300mb & 250mb.  Again exact timing and positioning and temp profiles still need a day or two of ironing but that JS might indicate the precip shield should be further N than the surface reflection indicates.

Totally agree and good point.  The tilt of the trough indicative of much broader precip field too.  That's why I was saying not even looking at the surface panels.  This look would hammer your area and coastal NJ.  

There needs to be some more support though among other guidance.  GFS could be playing a cruel trick LOL.  Seen it over amplify system before only to pull back within 48 hours.  So for now it's a soft sell for me.

Could not agree more.  Until I see the Euro shift I will not get excited.  Euro and CMC have been steadfast in keeping it very positively tilted with very little phasing of the energy.  As a general rule When the GFS and Euro differ in the track the final solns ends up somewhere in the middle of the cone they create with their differing storm tracks.  If that holds true it still will be a swing and miss.  18z euro rolling now.  

Interestingly enough the Euro ens agrees with its operations.  But so does the GFS Ensemble.  18z actually shifted its cluster N on GFS.   Battle of the Americans vs the Europeans

Crap its super small. Sorry I dont have time to fix it.