Long Range Discussion 22.0

And the NAM and GFS cave to the S&E. Euro will be Godzilla. Book it

Frank_Wx wrote:The greatest threat to Monday’s storm is yet another anomalous surface low over Alaska pushing into the west coast, turning the flow progressive and disrupting the needed phase at 500mb along the east coast. For now I put chances at 10% for accumulation in Central Park, which is the highest yet this season. Hopefully we can get something to work out. If it doesn’t work out, it’s because of this dreaded -WPO regime we have been in.

Beyond Monday, the -WPO ridge is posed to move north and pinch off over the Arctic. As mentioned already by many on here, this follows a window of opportunity where we can get cross polar flow of arctic air into the central and eastern CONUS from the 5th to the 15th. In my opinion, that is the 10-day window to get something really going. Unfortunately, I’m not as optimistic as others that things turn around late January into February. The way Nina looks, and the overall makeup of the Tropospheric 500mb pattern and lack of coupling with the Stratosphere, I see another -WPO/-PNA pattern trying to take shape late Jan. Still a wayyyy long way to go before we get there. I’ll assess again in ten days or so..

Ok, Mr. Party Pooper lol

Nah, jk Frank haha I am genuinely surprised at your less than optimistic opinion, though. You mentioned some general thoughts above, but what specifically has you gunshy?

As for the Stratosphere, there’s a lag of 3-6 weeks generally between changes in itself and Troposphere, regardless of whether those changes are propagating top-down or bottom-up. So, this why I’ve said that the forcing mechanisms are going to oscillate between the MJO (which is what will be the catalyst for the main pattern change in about 7-10 days), and then the Stratospheric evolution, which is only going to be headed in a favorable direction NOW. However, these changes should continue for several weeks (as long as the MJO has been in Phases 6 and 7, we should see the Stratospheric disruption continue). So, we’ve been in Phases 6-7 for at least a month, therefore, the Stratospheric PV should remain favorably disturbed and oriented for about that long (so, essentially most of the month of January). Carry the lag, and you’re looking good from the end of January through at least Week 3 of February with respect only to the Stratospheric PV, assuming the Stratospheric PV disruption subsides after the effects of the MJO pulse moved on, which, may not be the case thanks to the -QBO piling on. That would only extend the fun if it did lol after that, I expect the MJO to take over again in generally cold phases (as we’ve already discussed).

Irish wrote:

sroc4 wrote:And the NAM and GFS cave to the S&E. Euro will be Godzilla. Book it

Is this an improvement or moving in the wrong direction?

The NAM and GFS went the wrong way, and Im pretty sure he was being sarcastic about the EURO and having a bit of fun with all of the model chaos that we’ve seen in the short-term in recent seasons haha

The EURO, btw, was a miss wide-right as well, if you were wondering.

Fear thee not, though. I am about a micron away from completely going all-in for the period from January 13th-16th for a BIG one I just want time to really reassess the situation before making the official decision haha but, just know that there is a massive storm signal showing up for that period, in my opinion. I’ll probably do a video discussion on it if I feel it’s warranted and a legitimate threat.

MattyICE wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:SENJsnowman and sroc4 very close here.  Got to see how this thing trends.  Any northward trend and damn...

Agree!  We also have to keep an eye on the jet streak as we get into short range model range. If we can get it more favorably oriented then we could end up with a SLP in a less than optimum position for snow further north, but a more expansive precip shield to the NW.

Totally to you both. Take a look at the H5 changes and surface changes to track on the CMC as well. It has been very progressive, and S&E until now. It scrapes the area now. Still 3 days. Im getting slammed at work today so I cant delve deeper, but a shift of 50miles N and areas like mine can see a nice little event. Id take 1-3" and move on in a heart beat

amugs wrote:W Things for Mon storm.
1. Need the NS Storm 500 mb level to run higher up n out of CAN not into SE where it will squash the storm.
IF IT DOES lift further North then the storm has sometime as heights rise a bit more ahead of the storm and it can lift further N. The window on this is tight but it is possible.
2. We are seeing separation between theb2 systems and virus which is allowing this to make some adjustments/ticks N.
We'll see what the 12z runs at 500mb level have. May not see great surface depiction at onset but still on the table.

Lastly, I look at the maps and see lots of influences on the PV from MJO to SCAN Ridge, earlier in Dec to EAMT to QBO Easterly winds. This latent heat and water vapor from these main first three mentioned I believe will have an affect on the PV to being elongated.
A good look overall. Now I know exactly what some my Debbie down about wah wah and turn that frown upside down.....no NAO everything will cut......think again 2013/2014, 14-15 are 2 examples. You have the Triplets (SNOW, CP, DOC) showing up -EPO/+PNA/-AO but look at where the NATL blocking feature is is here. That PV drops down as indicated with the arrow and that block gets pulled west. Even if it doesn't we still have chances for snow.
GEFs Mean 500 from Jan 6-15th compliments of SMTS on 33nrain

Great post, mugsy! That signature over Western Europe/Northeastern Atlantic is what I also think will evolve into a renewed -NAO signature down the road. Nice job highlighting that!

amugs wrote:Rb here's your Hovmoller and GEFS BC MJO wave which coincides with the chart.




It is a slow wave as to be expected in a Nina year(s).
The plots keep correcting as they have done since Dec with teh wave spending more time in teh correct phase than projected forecasted. This again is what happens in a Nina year which we are in. Now with that said i would surmise that this should continue by this past data and the wave should continue through phase 8for a longer period of time. Could it eventually wind up in the COD - middle circle in the MJO chart absolutely but from what we've seen this winter the models forecasting have been to quick to move these waves into the 10 day projections. This coincides beautifully with a phase 7 8 for the 1st week later of January to kick things off.

I agree with this, and is why I like the CFS progression better overall than either the GEFS or EPS. I think we continue to see further corrections to less time in on Phase 7, and longer and stronger in Phases 8 and 1 before declining as it goes through Phase 2 into 3. We know where I think it goes after that haha

Reel in Monday’s threat Scott, heehaw, mugsy and Marty!! I probably won’t be able to sit down and check it out in any depth, but if I can find some time, I’ll try to at least see if I can get on the gimble belt with you fellas!

I’ve been waiting for a run like this……


Merry New Year from the GFS:



Mugs and I have been adamant on a NESIS event in the January Week 2 to Week 3 period. I said the 13th-16th looks to have BIG potential. While I’m not officially endorsing this period YET, this run is how I would draw up a HECS/Frankzilla.

Damian, I think it’s you waiting for that elusive HECS. Well, the GFS just delivered the most beautiful run I’ve ever seen at H5. Forget the surface maps verbatim, because this would challenge records if it actually played out this way. Forget the Holy Trinity, because this is the Holy Pentad.

Good night all

jaydoy wrote:I don’t post here a lot, but these last few weeks I have placed my trust in rb, probably longer, let’s see some of that cold and white gold

Thanks, Jay!! Trying my best to deliver the goods! Haha

LOCK. IT. IN.