Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **amugs** Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:35 pm

Pressure difference e on 18z notable .
Those over the midwest help push the storm away from them and more to the coast.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 9 Fi74kz10

by **amugs** Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:37 pm

Also, as I mentioned in an earlier post the big Ocean storm is trending further west and thus is slower to depart with the energetic being faster in the S so that will dampen the heights thus not allowing g a cut inland but a more coastal scenario. Alas, look at how anomalous warm the western Hotlantic is!!
= latent heat, moisture and strengthen, cyclogenesis of storm for storms

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 9 Fi5ety10

by **Irish** Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:39 pm

amugsAlso, as I mentioned in an earlier post the big Ocean storm is trending further west and thus is slower to depart with the energetic being faster in the S so that will dampen the heights thus not allowing g a cut inland but a more coastal scenario. Alas, look at how anomalous warm the western Hotlantic is!!
= latent heat, moisture and strengthen, cyclogenesis of storm for storms

I'm assuming that this is all good news for us?

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:45 pm

Irish wrote:

amugsAlso, as I mentioned in an earlier post the big Ocean storm is trending further west and thus is slower to depart with the energetic being faster in the S so that will dampen the heights thus not allowing g a cut inland but a more coastal scenario. Alas, look at how anomalous warm the western Hotlantic is!!
= latent heat, moisture and strengthen, cyclogenesis of storm for storms

I'm assuming that this is all good news for us?

It can be, but if the overall pattern doesn’t play well it could work to our disadvantage. Situationally dependent. In our case, it would work to disadvantage in the sense that it would tend to allow an enhancement of the western Atlantic/Southeast ridge, BUT, we have a plethora of other factors working constructively to override this effect.

The same double-edged sword applies to the strength of the storm. Can work against us if the storm tracks to our west, but can work for us if it tracks to our east.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:14 pm

Again, y’all know how I feel about off-hour runs, but the changes aloft that I just saw in the 18z EPS make me all warm and fuzzy inside. Small, but notable, and in the right direction. The surface maps don’t reflect these changes, but I quite frankly don’t really care at this point, as that’s not irregular, especially at this lead time.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:14 pm

Just go have wait and see, thats all we can do. Of course great job by our forecasters but in the end only mother nature and real time will tell the truth. My mom used to say I know what the weather is when I look outside lol

by **Irish** Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Just go have wait and see, thats all we can do. Of course great job by our forecasters but in the end only mother nature and real time will tell the truth. My mom used to say I know what the weather is when I look outside lol

Damn true, but I get a little edgey when we bring moms into it. Mine used to beat my ass and have the nerve to tell me that it hurt her, as much as it hurt me... LIAR!

by **mikeypizano** Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:30 pm

Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Just go have wait and see, thats all we can do. Of course great job by our forecasters but in the end only mother nature and real time will tell the truth. My mom used to say I know what the weather is when I look outside lol

Damn true, but I get a little edgey when we bring moms into it. Mine used to beat my ass and have the nerve to tell me that it hurt her, as much as it hurt me... LIAR!

Maybe she sprained her wrist.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:07 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Just go have wait and see, thats all we can do. Of course great job by our forecasters but in the end only mother nature and real time will tell the truth. My mom used to say I know what the weather is when I look outside lol

Damn true, but I get a little edgey when we bring moms into it. Mine used to beat my ass and have the nerve to tell me that it hurt her, as much as it hurt me... LIAR!

Maybe she sprained her wrist.

LMAO, to the comment not that ur mom beat ur ass, don't take things so seriously man...weren't you the one telling me to relax and stop bumbing out the past 2 years? And now I am chill but to be honest ur posts resonate a awful lot like mine did now that I look back at them. Seems your feeling a bit pessimistic like I used to, why the change? Lets enjoy this and if we get skunked theres more to come I am sure. My totally unexpert opinion tells me this may be a doozy for most of us, you live in a tough spot I must say so I get ur frustration, but if we do not take it in stride we will all go insane and thats just not healthy. Self care my friend self care.

by **Irish** Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
Irish wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Just go have wait and see, thats all we can do. Of course great job by our forecasters but in the end only mother nature and real time will tell the truth. My mom used to say I know what the weather is when I look outside lol

Damn true, but I get a little edgey when we bring moms into it. Mine used to beat my ass and have the nerve to tell me that it hurt her, as much as it hurt me... LIAR!

Maybe she sprained her wrist.
LMAO, to the comment not that ur mom beat ur ass, don't take things so seriously man...weren't you the one telling me to relax and stop bumbing out the past 2 years? And now I am chill but to be honest ur posts resonate a awful lot like mine did now that I look back at them. Seems your feeling a bit pessimistic like I used to, why the change? Lets enjoy this and if we get skunked theres more to come I am sure. My totally unexpert opinion tells me this may be a doozy for most of us, you live in a tough spot I must say so I get ur frustration, but if we do not take it in stride we will all go insane and thats just not healthy. Self care my friend self care.

I was just completely being funny about the mom stuff. Nothing serious at all about what happens with the storm. If it pans out, awesome. If not, move on to the next one. I'll never say I don't get pumped though. Love this time of year and always hope for the best.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:15 pm

Rb. Pretty big changes at H5 on the gfs. Not reflecting at surface but ULL stalls and much colder aloft.

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:20 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Rb. Pretty big changes at H5 on the gfs. Not reflecting at surface but ULL stalls and much colder aloft.

Based on the upper levels we should of seen a run similar to what the ICON just showed. GFS being stubborn.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:23 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Rb. Pretty big changes at H5 on the gfs. Not reflecting at surface but ULL stalls and much colder aloft.
Based on the upper levels we should of seen a run similar to what the ICON just showed. GFS being stubborn.

Yeah. The ULL was south of Atlanta. I’m getting very skeptical of an inland runner.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:31 pm

Trough went negative very quickly though

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:33 pm

Not to ruin the fun, but GEFS are EAST OF HATTERAS AND SLOWER Wink

trust the process folks.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:36 pm

East of what now?

I'm going to bed.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:37 pm

GEFS Mean is a Benchmark track. Hereeeee weeeee goooooo……..

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:38 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:East of what now?

I'm going to bed.

Cape Hatteras, NC. Previous runs have been west of it.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:42 pm

Closest point of approach:

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 9 4f586310

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:GEFS Mean is a Benchmark track. Hereeeee weeeee goooooo……..

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 9 1642431600-KDZlkc-Zbha-M

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:44 pm

by bobjohnsonforthehall Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:44 pm

Does it go due North at that point? Or maybe NNW?

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:45 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Does it go due North at that point? Or maybe NNW?

Nopeeee

Hits the Delmarva then just north of northeast from there.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:48 pm

GEM is less enthused all around. But, I’m not worried lol

by **Irish** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:03 am

rb924119 wrote:GEFS Mean is a Benchmark track. Hereeeee weeeee goooooo……..

So, now we've swung back east to be in a great position as of now? And both inland runner and OTS are looking less and less likely? If this thing hits perfectly, what accumulations could the sweet spots be looking at?

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:05 am

UKMET also with favorable changes aloft. So we are 3/4 so far tonight. Will be interesting to see the GEPS shortly, though my guess is that they will more or less resemble the Op like they usually do.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:10 am

Irish wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GEFS Mean is a Benchmark track. Hereeeee weeeee goooooo……..

So, now we've swung back east to be in a great position as of now? And both inland runner and OTS are looking less and less likely? If this thing hits perfectly, what accumulations could the sweet spots be looking at?

I wouldn’t use “great”, as there are different options coming into play (like my occlusion idea over Virginia) that could stop the biggest snows from making it as far north, among others. If that were to occur, somebody would see two feet out of it just based on how I’d expect the dynamics to evolve. If there is no occlusion and it just continues it’s forward motion? I’d guess maybe up to a 16-18” max snowfall. Very rough guesstimate lol

by Sponsored content