Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:05 am

UKMET also with favorable changes aloft. So we are 3/4 so far tonight. Will be interesting to see the GEPS shortly, though my guess is that they will more or less resemble the Op like they usually do.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:10 am

Irish wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GEFS Mean is a Benchmark track. Hereeeee weeeee goooooo……..

So, now we've swung back east to be in a great position as of now? And both inland runner and OTS are looking less and less likely? If this thing hits perfectly, what accumulations could the sweet spots be looking at?

I wouldn’t use “great”, as there are different options coming into play (like my occlusion idea over Virginia) that could stop the biggest snows from making it as far north, among others. If that were to occur, somebody would see two feet out of it just based on how I’d expect the dynamics to evolve. If there is no occlusion and it just continues it’s forward motion? I’d guess maybe up to a 16-18” max snowfall. Very rough guesstimate lol

by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:12 am

Weren't these 0z runs supposed to be the first ones that take into account the sampling that was done?

by **Irish** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:17 am

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Weren't these 0z runs supposed to be the first ones that take into account the sampling that was done?

I believe so.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:18 am

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Weren't these 0z runs supposed to be the first ones that take into account the sampling that was done?

I thought starting with 00z last night they had it….? Not positive, though.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:21 am

As expected, GEPS followed the GEM.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:19 am

EURO may be interesting here gang. Seeing a lot of the same changes that I’ve been looking for and what we saw from the ICON, GFS suite, and UKMET.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:29 am

I loved the changes aloft, but it didn’t get it done. Right direction, though, so that’s a positive.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:16 am

06z gfs Ull south of Atlanta. Interaction with tpv s/w is much later resulting in a stalled ull that doesn’t flood warm air. This was very similar to 00z. Again surface results not impressive but this is a big change with H5. What does it mean for final result not sure accept I don’t think inland runner.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:43 am

Snyone got info on 00x euro? Glad to see some positives on 00z gfs and again at 6z if I've learned snything it's don't worry so much bout surface if h5 looks decent that cam say a lot.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:48 am

I can only see the 24 HR skip euro but did it just show a run to the great Lakes?! If so that's def not off the table then with the new data having been in. That's discouraging.

by **Snow88** Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:50 am

Gefs is still a classic coastal snowstorm track

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:51 am

Gfs has been the model to pick up on H5 changes first. As we get within 4 days I trust it best in this particular event.

by **Radz** Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:55 am

O6z Gfs looks like the surface low jumps east from southern Jersey to east of LI…

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:30 am

06Z GEFS this is where you want an ULL if you want a snowstorm in these parts. Models will struggle with this evolution but i think some better clarity will start in next 24/36 hours. Nothing is off the table right now IMO.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 10 Gefs29

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:34 am

Right now the best guess of sig snowfall is NW of I95, but it is way too early to write the coast off especially when you see the gefs.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 10 Nws11

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:04 am

VIA NWS GRAY: Additional balloon launches are likely from the NWS in the coming day or two, read below from their morning discussion.

The next item of interest continues to be the potential storm
later Sunday night and Monday. In general, a good portion of the
00z deterministic suite as well as latest ensemble information
indicates another westward nudge to the low track. This means
an occluding low in the process of vertically stacking traveling
northward from the Mid Atlantic States to eastern Upstate NY
then eastward into northern New England. Additional weather
balloon launches will be starting in a day or two along with
the fact that the short wave trough energy will be over land in
the PAC NW today. With these additional data infused into
computer models, we`ll see if this westward trend gains our
confidence or if an new eastward trend develops. At this time,
siding with a more west solution given strong ensemble support
makes sense at this time.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:05 am

This mornings GFS is trending towards an earlier transfer. Upper levels continue to improve. Surface reflection is slow to respond. I expect further adjustments SE in time. How much remains to be seen. I think this goes inside BM, although a track across NYC is on the table. I believe EURO is over amped; a common bias at this time range. I read from another board that the 06z run from the EURO did tick east.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:08 am

06z EPS are east.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:24 am

Yes the 06Z EPS are east by at least 50/75 miles or so. Still not ideal location but really another 50 mile bump and it would be. These are just too fine details now. But a high level the ULL is being shown to go south of Atlanta on both Euro/GFS and that is not a typical inland runner track. Of course march 93 was another animal, but I'd say coastal hugger to BM is more reasonable.

by **dsix85** Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:44 am

Is it me, or do I have a recollection that when storms tend to hit our latitude they often end up taking more of an eastern turn in the final few hours? I understand the dynamics of each storm are different, but don't they often make that subtle turn to the east?

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:00 am

The NWS above is taking the side of a inland runner into central NY anyone from albany county south is toast if thats true.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:12 am

I am curious looking at GFS looks like especially on eastern side this could have quite a wind component? Looks like plenty of convection to bring winds down to surface though I know there are some mechanics that are different in winter than summer. My friend said he heard the B word in CT, I dunno where but I guess they are hyping it already. He wants to know how much wind there could be and so do I, now I 100% prefer this to coincide with snow do not worry CP : )

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:18 am

jmanley32 wrote:The NWS above is taking the side of a inland runner into central NY anyone from albany county south is toast if thats true.

meaning snow or snow ice and rain

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:20 am

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:The NWS above is taking the side of a inland runner into central NY anyone from albany county south is toast if thats true.
meaning snow or snow ice and rain

If it were to cut west of NYC or over it would all be rain and wind.

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:20 am

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:The NWS above is taking the side of a inland runner into central NY anyone from albany county south is toast if thats true.
meaning snow or snow ice and rain
If it were to cut west of NYC or over it would all be rain and wind.

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:33 am

It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…

But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.

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