Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
jmanley32 wrote:If it were to cut west of NYC or over it would all be rain and wind.frank 638 wrote:meaning snow or snow ice and rainjmanley32 wrote:The NWS above is taking the side of a inland runner into central NY anyone from albany county south is toast if thats true.![]()
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frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…
But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.
But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
You are right, but there is still possibility of a SE trend but the NWS as posted above does not seem to think so. I guess they see the GFS going back west several hundred miles on future runs, which would suck. Theres def go be a big storm just what kind of precip is the question.SENJsnowman wrote:It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…
But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
jmanley32 wrote:You are right, but there is still possibility of a SE trend but the NWS as posted above does not seem to think so. I guess they see the GFS going back west several hundred miles on future runs, which would suck. Theres def go be a big storm just what kind of precip is the question.SENJsnowman wrote:It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…
But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.
I believe the NWS states:
we`ll see if this westward trend gains our
confidence or if an new eastward trend develops.
No need to twist the story here. Analysis is being performed in all camps. Still a lot to piece together y'all.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
crippo84 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:You are right, but there is still possibility of a SE trend but the NWS as posted above does not seem to think so. I guess they see the GFS going back west several hundred miles on future runs, which would suck. Theres def go be a big storm just what kind of precip is the question.SENJsnowman wrote:It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…
But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.
I believe the NWS states:
we`ll see if this westward trend gains our
confidence or if an new eastward trend develops.
No need to twist the story here. Analysis is being performed in all camps. Still a lot to piece together y'all.
Ironically, it was the very next words in the update that seem to be contradictory to what actually happened, at least to my interpretation:
At this time, siding with a more west solution given strong ensemble support
makes sense at this time.
And that probably actually make sense if you look at the ensemble support at arm's length. But I'm pretty sure it was this same ensemble support that actually trended East overnight.
But whatever it will all play itself out on its own accord...and there's still a ton of heavy lifting to do here, lol
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
I am a little concerned the Ensembles are downplaying the strength and magnitude of the Pacific energy that will amplify over the central U.S, and the reason OP's are considerably west of them is because their resolutions are better equipped to handle this energy. Whether or not my concerns are valid or not I can't really speak to. But I'm not as optimistic as others are in regards to the Ensembles being consistently east.
![Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Capture](https://i.postimg.cc/D02XH7zF/Capture.png)
If we put aside the Ensembles for a sec and just take a look at H5, my concerns are also that these features are not favorably set-up to promote a widespread coastal event. To me, it looks like N&W/Interior is favored in this setup that consists of an east-based -NAO, and poorly positioned west-based -AO, which is pressing on the PV which then presses on HP to move ESE.
Hey, I've seen crazier things happen. Others have talked about how to get this storm to work and they are correct with their analysis. But when you rely on timing and certain things to happen, such as an earlier phase of the Atlantic/Nor'easter storm, or for the northern energy to slow down, it becomes an uphill battle to get the low pressure on the BM. It would be much easier if we had the west-based block, 50-50 Low, and HP to the north. We do not.
![Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Capture](https://i.postimg.cc/D02XH7zF/Capture.png)
If we put aside the Ensembles for a sec and just take a look at H5, my concerns are also that these features are not favorably set-up to promote a widespread coastal event. To me, it looks like N&W/Interior is favored in this setup that consists of an east-based -NAO, and poorly positioned west-based -AO, which is pressing on the PV which then presses on HP to move ESE.
Hey, I've seen crazier things happen. Others have talked about how to get this storm to work and they are correct with their analysis. But when you rely on timing and certain things to happen, such as an earlier phase of the Atlantic/Nor'easter storm, or for the northern energy to slow down, it becomes an uphill battle to get the low pressure on the BM. It would be much easier if we had the west-based block, 50-50 Low, and HP to the north. We do not.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Models have been trending in recent runs of digging the shortwave further south. That argues for a further east track. The 12Z Nam has it down into the Florida panhandle. At the end of the run it has a low on the coast of S Carolina.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
nutleyblizzard wrote:Models have been trending in recent runs of digging the shortwave further south. That argues for a further east track. The 12Z Nam has it down into the Florida panhandle. At the end of the run it has a low on the coast of S Carolina.
An ULL going 100 miles south of Atlanta would probably be a good outcome for the area. The interaction with the tpv s/w is going to be interesting. But again as we get closer there is better data for the models to ingest so would expect next 24/36 hours we get closer to the truth...
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
heehaw453 wrote:nutleyblizzard wrote:Models have been trending in recent runs of digging the shortwave further south. That argues for a further east track. The 12Z Nam has it down into the Florida panhandle. At the end of the run it has a low on the coast of S Carolina.
An ULL going 100 miles south of Atlanta would probably be a good outcome for the area. The interaction with the tpv s/w is going to be interesting. But again as we get closer there is better data for the models to ingest so would expect next 24/36 hours we get closer to the truth...
This is a great point. One that I was waiting to see what the rest of 12z did before making, but this is the 12z NAM compared to 06z GFS
HUGE diff. That said it is on a trajectory NE at this point. So in reality its a tad slower but headed towards where the GFS is
![Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_seus_16](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022011306/gfs_z500_vort_seus_16.png)
![Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Namconus_z500_vort_seus_53](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011312/namconus_z500_vort_seus_53.png)
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
This ULL is going to get tugged on and there is little doubt. I believe goal posts are ULL crossing between PHL-about 75 miles off AC coast. If it's the latter rejoice and if it's the former then not so much.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
The other thing is how vertically stacked will this be? If it vertically stacked the ULL can get closer to the area as WAA will be mitigated. GFS has been showing that kind of situation.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
noooooooooooooooomikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!
![:sob: 😭](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/1f62d.png?v=2.2.7)
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
GFS is east! Takes the low from Cape May into NYC. Nice trends thus far with the 12z suite.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Lets not forget another important factor here on Long Island. Those Ocean temps are mighty warm..Mid 40's, definitley working against us
STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX AIR SEA DIR/SP/G
(UTC) (F)
NY Harb Entrance 1450 48 350/ 8/ 10 1016.7 2/ 7
20 S Fire Island 1450 48 1016.4 3/ 6
Great South Bay NOT AVBL
23 SSW Montauk P 1450 47 150/ 6/ 8 1018.0 4/ 7
15 E Barnegat Li 1456 46 N/A 3/ 6
Hudson Canyon 1450 50 160/ 10/ 12 1017.5 4/ 7
Kings Point 1430 36 60/ 3/ 5 1018.6
STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX AIR SEA DIR/SP/G
(UTC) (F)
NY Harb Entrance 1450 48 350/ 8/ 10 1016.7 2/ 7
20 S Fire Island 1450 48 1016.4 3/ 6
Great South Bay NOT AVBL
23 SSW Montauk P 1450 47 150/ 6/ 8 1018.0 4/ 7
15 E Barnegat Li 1456 46 N/A 3/ 6
Hudson Canyon 1450 50 160/ 10/ 12 1017.5 4/ 7
Kings Point 1430 36 60/ 3/ 5 1018.6
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!
![affraid](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/affraid.gif)
But did you gas it up? If there's no gas, it's not officially prepped, and we're safe.
Otherwise, we blame you for any non-benchmark track
![Razz](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_razz.gif)
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS is east! Takes the low from Cape May into NYC. Nice trends thus far with the 12z suite.
The GFS is a sig step with the ULL. Move it another 50-75 miles east and it'd be a sig hit for most. That is a pin prick at this range. As long as we can hold this H5 and not regress we are at least in the game.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic, as does the ICON. Good trends.
Last edited by rb924119 on Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:15 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
rb924119 wrote:GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic. Good trends.
Yeah Rb it's been doing that last several runs. I think it has merit and could allow for a colder solution aloft.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Very strong winds maybe HWW criteria as the front end moves in verbatim on GFS. The higher snow totals also crept slightly south now just barely north of NYC is cut off, might be a NYC rain/westchester snow type senario. I have seen it before.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
But I am hearing that the mid level lows are West of where the surface map has it placed.
bobjohnsonforthehall- Posts : 311
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
Do you still feel a inland runner is your bet? If I remember correctly I think that was your initial thinking or am I wrong? Do we get this offshore to get a areawide sig snowfall? Thats the question and I hope so. We all know that with this still being 4 days out that a trip back west is not out of the question.rb924119 wrote:GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic, as does the ICON. Good trends.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
essexcountypete wrote:mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!![]()
But did you gas it up? If there's no gas, it's not officially prepped, and we're safe.
Otherwise, we blame you for any non-benchmark track![]()
FUUUUULL tank!
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
jmanley32 wrote:Do you still feel a inland runner is your bet? If I remember correctly I think that was your initial thinking or am I wrong? Do we get this offshore to get a areawide sig snowfall? Thats the question and I hope so. We all know that with this still being 4 days out that a trip back west is not out of the question.rb924119 wrote:GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic, as does the ICON. Good trends.
Only up to about Virginia, then I think it occludes and redevelops off the coast. I think the models have been too aggressive driving this so far north, but we’ll see.
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Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?
GEFS continue to be the outlier. East of OP and significant snows N&W.
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