Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:20 am

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:The NWS above is taking the side of a inland runner into central NY anyone from albany county south is toast if thats true.
meaning snow or snow ice and rain
If it were to cut west of NYC or over it would all be rain and wind.

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:33 am

It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…

But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:45 am

SENJsnowman wrote:It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…

But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.

You are right, but there is still possibility of a SE trend but the NWS as posted above does not seem to think so. I guess they see the GFS going back west several hundred miles on future runs, which would suck. Theres def go be a big storm just what kind of precip is the question.

by **crippo84** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…

But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.
You are right, but there is still possibility of a SE trend but the NWS as posted above does not seem to think so. I guess they see the GFS going back west several hundred miles on future runs, which would suck. Theres def go be a big storm just what kind of precip is the question.

I believe the NWS states:

we`ll see if this westward trend gains our
confidence or if an new eastward trend develops.

No need to twist the story here. Analysis is being performed in all camps. Still a lot to piece together y'all.

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:57 am

crippo84 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:It does seem that the ‘updated info’ in that nws update seemed to be rather contradictory to what heehaw rb and nutley took away from the overnight runs. Unless I read something wrong…

But I’ll take mass confusion right now, it sure beats the inland consensus that we had at this time yesterday.
You are right, but there is still possibility of a SE trend but the NWS as posted above does not seem to think so. I guess they see the GFS going back west several hundred miles on future runs, which would suck. Theres def go be a big storm just what kind of precip is the question.

I believe the NWS states:

we`ll see if this westward trend gains our
confidence or if an new eastward trend develops.

No need to twist the story here. Analysis is being performed in all camps. Still a lot to piece together y'all.

Ironically, it was the very next words in the update that seem to be contradictory to what actually happened, at least to my interpretation:

At this time, siding with a more west solution given strong ensemble support
makes sense at this time.

And that probably actually make sense if you look at the ensemble support at arm's length. But I'm pretty sure it was this same ensemble support that actually trended East overnight.

But whatever it will all play itself out on its own accord...and there's still a ton of heavy lifting to do here, lol

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:03 am

I am a little concerned the Ensembles are downplaying the strength and magnitude of the Pacific energy that will amplify over the central U.S, and the reason OP's are considerably west of them is because their resolutions are better equipped to handle this energy. Whether or not my concerns are valid or not I can't really speak to. But I'm not as optimistic as others are in regards to the Ensembles being consistently east.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Capture

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Capture

If we put aside the Ensembles for a sec and just take a look at H5, my concerns are also that these features are not favorably set-up to promote a widespread coastal event. To me, it looks like N&W/Interior is favored in this setup that consists of an east-based -NAO, and poorly positioned west-based -AO, which is pressing on the PV which then presses on HP to move ESE.

Hey, I've seen crazier things happen. Others have talked about how to get this storm to work and they are correct with their analysis. But when you rely on timing and certain things to happen, such as an earlier phase of the Atlantic/Nor'easter storm, or for the northern energy to slow down, it becomes an uphill battle to get the low pressure on the BM. It would be much easier if we had the west-based block, 50-50 Low, and HP to the north. We do not.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:05 am

Models have been trending in recent runs of digging the shortwave further south. That argues for a further east track. The 12Z Nam has it down into the Florida panhandle. At the end of the run it has a low on the coast of S Carolina.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:19 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Models have been trending in recent runs of digging the shortwave further south. That argues for a further east track. The 12Z Nam has it down into the Florida panhandle. At the end of the run it has a low on the coast of S Carolina.

An ULL going 100 miles south of Atlanta would probably be a good outcome for the area. The interaction with the tpv s/w is going to be interesting. But again as we get closer there is better data for the models to ingest so would expect next 24/36 hours we get closer to the truth...

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:27 am

heehaw453 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Models have been trending in recent runs of digging the shortwave further south. That argues for a further east track. The 12Z Nam has it down into the Florida panhandle. At the end of the run it has a low on the coast of S Carolina.

An ULL going 100 miles south of Atlanta would probably be a good outcome for the area. The interaction with the tpv s/w is going to be interesting. But again as we get closer there is better data for the models to ingest so would expect next 24/36 hours we get closer to the truth...

This is a great point. One that I was waiting to see what the rest of 12z did before making, but this is the 12z NAM compared to 06z GFS

HUGE diff. That said it is on a trajectory NE at this point. So in reality its a tad slower but headed towards where the GFS is

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_seus_16

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Gfs_z500_vort_seus_16

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Namconus_z500_vort_seus_53

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:36 am

12z ICON

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:39 am

This ULL is going to get tugged on and there is little doubt. I believe goal posts are ULL crossing between PHL-about 75 miles off AC coast. If it's the latter rejoice and if it's the former then not so much.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:42 am

The other thing is how vertically stacked will this be? If it vertically stacked the ULL can get closer to the area as WAA will be mitigated. GFS has been showing that kind of situation.

by **mikeypizano** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:53 am

Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!

by **frank 638** Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:56 am

mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!

noooooooooooooooo

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:00 am

The 12 GFS is a little slower and lower latitude at 72 hours. Heights are also a bit dampened by the ocean storm. seems positive to me.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 11 Gfs51

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:06 am

GFS is east! Takes the low from Cape May into NYC. Nice trends thus far with the 12z suite.

by **mmanisca** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:06 am

Lets not forget another important factor here on Long Island. Those Ocean temps are mighty warm..Mid 40's, definitley working against us

STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX AIR SEA DIR/SP/G
(UTC) (F)
NY Harb Entrance 1450    48 350/ 8/ 10 1016.7 2/ 7
20 S Fire Island 1450 48 1016.4 3/ 6
Great South Bay NOT AVBL
23 SSW Montauk P 1450    47 150/ 6/ 8 1018.0 4/ 7
15 E Barnegat Li 1456 46 N/A 3/ 6
Hudson Canyon 1450 50 160/ 10/ 12 1017.5 4/ 7
Kings Point 1430 36   60/ 3/ 5 1018.6

by **essexcountypete** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:10 am

mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!

But did you gas it up? If there's no gas, it's not officially prepped, and we're safe.

Otherwise, we blame you for any non-benchmark track Razz

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:12 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS is east! Takes the low from Cape May into NYC. Nice trends thus far with the 12z suite.

The GFS is a sig step with the ULL. Move it another 50-75 miles east and it'd be a sig hit for most. That is a pin prick at this range. As long as we can hold this H5 and not regress we are at least in the game.

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:13 am

GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic, as does the ICON. Good trends.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:14 am

rb924119 wrote:GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic. Good trends.

Yeah Rb it's been doing that last several runs. I think it has merit and could allow for a colder solution aloft.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:15 am

Very strong winds maybe HWW criteria as the front end moves in verbatim on GFS. The higher snow totals also crept slightly south now just barely north of NYC is cut off, might be a NYC rain/westchester snow type senario. I have seen it before.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:16 am

But I am hearing that the mid level lows are West of where the surface map has it placed.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:17 am

rb924119 wrote:GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic, as does the ICON. Good trends.

Do you still feel a inland runner is your bet? If I remember correctly I think that was your initial thinking or am I wrong? Do we get this offshore to get a areawide sig snowfall? Thats the question and I hope so. We all know that with this still being 4 days out that a trip back west is not out of the question.

by **mikeypizano** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:27 am

essexcountypete wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Kiss the storm goodbye, I just prepped the big snow blower!

But did you gas it up? If there's no gas, it's not officially prepped, and we're safe.

Otherwise, we blame you for any non-benchmark track

FUUUUULL tank!

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GFS appears to be trying to pick up on the idea of my occlusion over the Mid-Atlantic, as does the ICON. Good trends.
Do you still feel a inland runner is your bet? If I remember correctly I think that was your initial thinking or am I wrong? Do we get this offshore to get a areawide sig snowfall? Thats the question and I hope so. We all know that with this still being 4 days out that a trip back west is not out of the question.

Only up to about Virginia, then I think it occludes and redevelops off the coast. I think the models have been too aggressive driving this so far north, but we’ll see.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:35 am

GEFS continue to be the outlier. East of OP and significant snows N&W.

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