Re: Banter Thread 7.0

[jmanley32]

Cannot remember but I think I am nearing or over my normal yearly snowfall, at 20 inches give or take and a few dustings that I did not include.

[heehaw453]

Bernie is an excellent Met.  Even the pros get humbled. The meso's sniffed this out though.

Bernie Rayno@AccuRayno·13mI just recorded a twitter live. ALWAYS track the trough until it exits. I did not do that, and as a result, I was AWFUL with this last storm. My twitter live explains. It is pinned to my feed

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) February 14, 2022

[amugs]

Bernie is an excellent Met.  Even the pros get humbled.  The meso's sniffed this out though.  

Bernie Rayno@AccuRayno·13mI just recorded a twitter live. ALWAYS track the trough until it exits. I did not do that, and as a result, I was AWFUL with this last storm. My twitter live explains. It is pinned to my feed

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) February 14, 2022

I saw this and he is an excellent Met and its great  to see a person who can say" I was wrong". That is a true person - no justification, quantification for the mistake made.  Just owns up to it. Mucho respect for a person who does such.

Check this out mid month temp charts globally - love this stuff.

[amugs]

Getting there peeps - I RB we trust to get to normal. One March bomb can change all of this is a hurry!!

[weatherwatchermom]

Happy Valentine's Day!!

[amugs]

From Joe B and even in todays technologically advanced forecasting days they still get it wrong, like Bernie said. Here is JB's take from his blog:
Raise your right hand and repeat after me. ( I am doing it too)

I DONT OWN THE WEATHER

YOU DONT OWN THE WEATHER

WE DONT OWN THE WEATHER

What is setting me off here, The idea the storm in SE New England Over achieved. THE STORM DID WHAT THE CONDITIONS DICTATED IT WOULD DO. That forecasters under estimated in that case or over estimated as I did in south Jersey is not a sign that the weather over achieved or under achieved. Its a sign that who ever and whatever expected more or less was wrong, The weather is never wrong, It never does more or less than the conditions that evolve dictate it will do

This is a big problem in my field IMO. It has led to this whole climate change we can control the weather and. climate situation. The idea that nature can dare defy what a human says an if it does it ahs to be the fault of something else.

I have missed forecasts many many times. Every one of them is because I was wrong. The idea that the weather overachieves or underachieves is a form of arrogance for it means that the people thinking that believe they are in control and the weather defied them. Or the model, or whatever.

The risk of the features combing and the trough catching up was always there. The water is very warm, the niche low was there and the thump developed and left in the I-95 corridor but then spread into New England, That is what the weather did, There were even some models that saw it ( as far as the axis of heaviest snow the euro clearly beat the GFS again on that) But it didn't beat the weather. It can get no better than a tie

And how about the La Nina broad brush. How is that working out, Its baffling to me since 95-96,10-11, last year and this year were la Nina winters and its snowing nicely in places where its not supposed to. WHO SAYS ITS NOT SUPPOSED TO, PEOPLE BELIEVING THEY ARE THE ANSWER MACHINE? Again think about what that means. By my calculation, we have had 3 predominately positive AO/NAO winters that have turned out darn good in places where the opposite is stated to be true. Is that overachieving? No there is another reason for it but its natural and explainable ( hint the pacific teleconnections)

So be careful. We live in a sound bite society that wishes to explain away things by labeling factors that dance around the fact

No one owns or controls the weather, It will do what its mean to do. If it does more or less than you think you are wrong, not the weather

[amugs]

127 years ago today... pic.twitter.com/jaHRmZdvDa

— NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) February 15, 2022

[mikeypizano]

Getting there peeps - I RB we trust to get to normal. One March bomb can change all of this is a hurry!!

Won't change my opinion that this is a horrible winter. I honestly can't wait for spring at this point. Mid February, not a single good storm here.

[docstox12]

Enjoying the last few days of snowpack here before the torch and heavy rain wipes it out.It's been the savings grace in an otherwise snow deprived winter here....so far that is,LOL.

[dkodgis]

The snow. She looks get-gone by Thurs

[amugs]

This would be bad...very bad if it was facing earth - MASSIVE CME explosion as Floyd sang on the Dark side of the Moon! If it was earth facing:
One what would you do?
Two would they tell us??

[amugs]

So another reanalysis of Tonga and now they show that it pierced into.....the Mesosphere from the Jan 15th massive explosion. 1992-93, 93-94 winters followed Pinatubo in 1991which was smaller than this and of course the MOW = Mecca of Winters.....95-95.

The eruption of the Hunga-Tonga Volcano caused the tallest ash plume ever recorded. It’s height was recorded at approximately 38 miles, poking into the Mesosphere. That’s over 200,000 feet tall. Amazing. pic.twitter.com/qc8MdOE8CG

— Michael Ferragamo (@FerragamoWx) February 20, 2022

[SENJsnowman]

The long range discussion has taken such a tantalizing turn…again! And as low chance threats go, this is kinda what you want it to look like. At least for coastal sections.

Man, it’s late February and the Jersey coast might still be in the game! For a tracker like me, this winter has been just unbelievably fun. Either a new system or a major pattern development to track every week for the past 2 months in a row! It doesn’t hurt that our season total is already above normal. And don’t forget about all the wonderful learning opportunities too!

[dkodgis]

Non-weather:

Might anyone use black and color hp 902 xl printer cartridges, free? If so, please PM me so I know where to send and to whom.

[docstox12]

Not weather related but prayers for the brave Ukrainian people fighting the evil Russian invaders led by a madman, trying to take over their country. Courage and aim straight!!!!

[dkodgis]

Here here!

[nutleyblizzard]

Barring any late season surprises, I’m giving this winter a D. Other than the two moderate events in January, the winter as a whole has been frustrating to say the least with all the near misses and repeated pattern mishaps. I always hated LaNinas. I believe we’ll fare much better with the expected ElNino next winter.

[weatherwatchermom]

Not weather related but prayers for the brave Ukrainian people fighting the evil Russian invaders led by a madman, trying to take over their country. Courage and aim straight!!!!

Doc the company my husband works for has a world wide presence..he has 5 employees that work for him in Ukraine..only 3 got out..they are doing everything they can to support them...it is devastating...I make sure I am not upstairs during the morning zoom updates...it's devastating

[docstox12]

Not weather related but prayers for the brave Ukrainian people fighting the evil Russian invaders led by a madman, trying to take over their country. Courage and aim straight!!!!

Doc the company my husband works for has a world wide presence..he has 5 employees that work for him in Ukraine..only 3 got out..they are doing everything they can to support them...it is devastating...I make sure I am not upstairs during the morning zoom updates...it's devastating

Mom, prayers for the two left in the Ukraine to get out safely.Thank God countries surrounding the Ukraine are accepting refugees, I hope the USA does as well.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

My other half Italian and Yukranian. Lost contact with any family there hopefully they are all safe. Putin may have lost his mind, like so many of our current day politicians, no names necessary. Its all about the people of Yukraine now, or at least it should be.

[docstox12]

My other half Italian and Yukranian. Lost contact with any family there hopefully they are all safe. Putin may have lost his mind, like so many of our current day politicians, no names necessary.  Its all about the people of Yukraine now, or at least it should be.

CP, prayers for your family over there to be safe.

[dkodgis]

Polish women are leaving strollers at the border for Ukrainian women who crossed carrying their babies all the way. Humanity in the face of inhumanity.

[docstox12]

Polish women are leaving strollers at the border for Ukrainian women who crossed carrying their babies all the way.  Humanity in the face of inhumanity.

Wonderful that Poland, Hungary and other countries are taking the women and children and elderly while the men stay to fight the evil Russians.Wish I was 40 years younger. single and had combat experience.I would go over there to kill Russians.

[Math23x7]

Two years ago today:



The Morristown meetup, right before the world shut down.

[amugs]

Prayer to CP family and the Ukrainian peeps.
May they sign the peace accord pronto and end this.

[amugs]

From Ben Noll and 33 n Rain wx forum


120% AN ACE (accumulated cyclone energy)= very active Hcane season

With that we have a large injection of cold fresh arctic water being released by the Beaufort Gyre that is infiltrating's the gulf stream it seems. SROC and I posted a video and information in this thread a ways back on this from Suspicious Observers and it is aligning.

Holy crap.. talk about fresh water stagnation.. @dbirch214 @TheSnowDreamer it seems an invisible force, under the surface in the Gulf Stream warm water wall below Newfoundland has some severe fresh and saline water situation. Yes, La Niña is making a dent here, but AMOC is . pic.twitter.com/9Q6H6VnOkn

— Aéro (@Dedicated_Being) March 7, 2022

[dkodgis]

Mercy me. $5.29 a gallon for heating oil. They should call it eating oil. The price is eating us alive

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