Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I know the models are for guidance and that pro mets use them to work into their forecast but what good are they when we do not have a end result or close to an idea only 36-48 hrs before? Thats pathetic and our technology by now should be far more superior.

Yeah from my experience phasing systems give the models very difficult times. Many times it's not until 24-48 hours before a phase that they start to latch onto the idea.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:44 pm

GFS has started, I will leave it to the others to do a play by play so as to not set off CP... : ) Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 1f609

Honestly now I am thinking that we will have to wait to have a good idea by 00z tomorrow, I think there could still be changes at 06z 12z and 18z tomorrow, but hopefully all in the right direction, so far so good lets see what GFS and CMC do.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:45 pm

GFS has initialized. The tension in my room is so thick you can cut it with a butter knife.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:48 pm

Northern vort axis is worse on the 00z GFS vs 18z. Man, this model gives me severe agita.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Trend-gfs-2022012700-f030-500hv-conus

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Trend-gfs-2022012700-f030-500hv-conus

by **Irish** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:49 pm

What are the official times for the 00, 06, 12 and 18 runs?

by **MattyICE** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:50 pm

There was a time the GFS was the one typically caving to the Euro. And it would also typically be the last to do so, stubbornly, within 24 hours of the first flakes. The Euro/nam/rgem triple so far has me wondering if order has been temporarily restored for the TRUE King. But if it has, then my point is don’t expect much from the gfs right now. Or even til tomorrow night. This is all classic playbook.

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Northern vort axis is worse on the 00z GFS vs 18z. Man, this model gives me severe agita.

You and me both

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:52 pm

Now it looks like it has sped up the northern vort some, which hopefully leads to a quicker phase. That being said, doubt we see much at the surface. This model is probably going to need another three cycles to catch up.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Trend-gfs-2022012700-f042-500hv-conus

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Trend-gfs-2022012700-f042-500hv-conus

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:53 pm

Irish wrote:What are the official times for the 00, 06, 12 and 18 runs?

http://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:54 pm

MattyICE wrote:There was a time the GFS was the one typically caving to the Euro. And it would also typically be the last to do so, stubbornly, within 24 hours of the first flakes. The Euro/nam/rgem triple so far has me wondering if order has been temporarily restored for the TRUE King. But if it has, then my point is don’t expect much from the gfs right now. Or even til tomorrow night. This is all classic playbook.

Probably right

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:57 pm

NAM vs GFS

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Models-2022012700-f057-500hv-conus

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:00 pm

GFS shows nothing. Actually further east of the 18z NAM.

GARBAGE! Cannot buy it after seeing RGEM/NAM

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:03 pm

00z Canadian coming in west

by **hyde345** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS shows nothing. Actually further east of the 18z NAM.

GARBAGE! Cannot buy it after seeing RGEM/NAM

There is a reason it's called the GooFuS. It's a crap model and so is the Nam for that matter.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:05 pm

GFS seems to think Gulf of Maine is where the ULL finally closes off. Ok. Maybe have to take a trip to Halifax. Either it's on to something or it's lost. But consistently is has been correcting. Holding energy back in AZ the northern stream interactions.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:07 pm

The Canadian might be as far west as the EURO...

by JT33 Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:10 pm

Thanks to WeatherWatcherMom for posting the times of model runs. I knew GFS ran about an hour/hour and a half early, but never knew about the EURO. Saved me waiting up for another three hours tonight!

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian might be as far west as the EURO...

I think it might be further west than Euro, but hard to read the maps.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:11 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian might be as far west as the EURO...

I think it might be further west than Euro, but hard to read the maps.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Screenshot-20220126-230705-Chrome-thumb-jpg-77816dff1870b728e2fcb838cd02ccaf

by **bloc1357** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian might be as far west as the EURO...

I think it might be further west than Euro, but hard to read the maps.

well that looks tasty!!

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:13 pm

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Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Image_13

CMC!

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:14 pm

by **Artechmetals** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Hey Frank do we have a better chance at a foot of snow out of this system area wide or Mario Balotelli scoring a goal for Italy in the World Cup playoff in march

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:19 pm

UKIE and JMA way west!

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:21 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:[
CMC!

Looks inside BM.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:22 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:UKIE and JMA way west!

JMA was sweet.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:27 pm

CMC coming in on better maps, and easy to see why it is west of 12z

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 15 Trend-gdps-2022012700-f042-500hv-conus

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