Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

The EURO CLOSED H5 AT 48 HOURS

12Z SATURDAY

I TOLD MUGS AND JANET YESTERDAY WE NEED THIS TO CLOSE OFF AT 09Z. WE ARE 3 HOURS AWAY FROM IT. MADONNA MIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last 4 runs of the EURO at 500mb

It looks like it's trying to close off earlier each run

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO CLOSED H5 AT 48 HOURS

12Z SATURDAY

I TOLD MUGS AND JANET YESTERDAY WE NEED THIS TO CLOSE OFF AT 09Z. WE ARE 3 HOURS AWAY FROM IT. MADONNA MIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

such intricacies it is amazing. Were we further away than 3 hrs in past runs? That could be a eternity though in terms of a model run, this is so nail biting and probably will be till we see what happens at 09z lol oy

Still a double barrell low at the surface. Odd, and not entierly buying it, but we will see.

frank 638 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Not great trends on the EURO so far

I think we should go get drinks this storm is driving everyone crazy

I will join you tomorrow night if this busts, we arent far from each other, love to meet ya lol

These maps should be FORBIDDEN but here I am posting it anyway

Quietace wrote:Still a double barrell low at the surface. Odd, and not entierly buying it, but we will see.

I think its the one model that does an OK job with holding onto a single primary

Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO CLOSED H5 AT 48 HOURS

12Z SATURDAY

I TOLD MUGS AND JANET YESTERDAY WE NEED THIS TO CLOSE OFF AT 09Z. WE ARE 3 HOURS AWAY FROM IT. MADONNA MIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's very close to being something much bigger Frank. It reconsolidation of the ULL that is causing this not be a big dog.

I know we hate them and trust me I really do, but our very own @Taffy up in Boston is looking at a possible 2 footer+

Frank_Wx wrote:I know we hate them and trust me I really do, but our very own  @Taffy  up in Boston is looking at a possible 2 footer+

Hasnt chimed in at all, probably why, is there anyway even a shred of hope that we get back that far west again? I am guessing not but just curious on ur thoughts about what the outcome might be or is it still sunny or huge storm?

"Not great trends on the EURO so far" all the way to "MADONNA MIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Frank just gave this one Euro run all the twists and turns of a whole Netflix series.

I can see the trailer now...

"Frank and his intrepid band of forecasters and novices battle quirky models and an unseen force to save the nation from over-hyped weather forecasts.

Watch the new Netflix series WE TRACK!"

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Still a double barrell low at the surface. Odd, and not entierly buying it, but we will see.

Hey Ryan. Nice to se you back. It looks like it’s chasing this convection. I bet that’s the reason for the double barrel slp. These little details ie exactly where these embedddd vorticies end up will be very diff to nail down in a model. Even this close.

I really will be facinated during real time to see if that was the nerror (or in reality can a storm chase convection?)

It's just not consolidated. The trajectory is NE instead of what the NAM was showing ENE. Very close to being something special.

Frank_Wx wrote:These maps should be FORBIDDEN but here I am posting it anyway

Close up shave peeps - in more ways than one!!

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Still a double barrell low at the surface. Odd, and not entierly buying it, but we will see.

Hey Ryan. Nice to se you back. It looks like it’s chasing this convection. I bet that’s the reason for the double barrel slp. These little details ie exactly where these embedddd vorticies end up will be very diff to nail down in a model. Even this close.

I really will be facinated during real time to see if that was the nerror (or in reality can a storm chase convection?)

Well, deep convection is pretty good for mass evacuation. The question is whether this gargled mess of vorticity out ahead of the midlatitude trough will feature enough synoptic scale forcing and mass evacuation to be the dominant low pressure for the ETC. If you follow the low trajectory on the ECMWF, there is jump to the NE at a specific timestep. Is that legitimate? You can argue both ways based on the H5 fields and the surface low evolution from the Southeast, hence why you see a almost meso-like surface reflection off the NJ coast whilst there also being the main surface low near boston. Realistically, ETC's aren't driven my small areas of convection. Yet, models often attach themselves to it based on how they resolve convection on their grids. I do not buy it based on the location of max PVA and the midlattiude trough location. Forcing is more favorable in the location South of LI, especially given the location of the EER and PER of the 250 hPa jets.

amugs wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:These maps should be FORBIDDEN but here I am posting it anyway

Close up shave peeps - in more ways than one!!

40 inches Frankzilla for beantown, it does not get anymore gut punching than that....27 in norwich which is where mohegan sun is, may just book a hotel stay tonight. What are the chances that verifies over there? A 120 mile shift is all we need and thats not birds eye miles thats driving.

I should also note that yes, positive differential diabatic heating in the middle troposphrere does lead to height falls (See QG height tendency). However, on a mean state, small areas of differential diabatic heating far ahead of the trough axis is quite small compared to the same just to the east relative to the trough axis location. Another arguemnt agaist that.

The 12Z NAM and 12Z Euro heights fields are pretty similar. NAM seems like it may be trustworthy ATTM.

Tomer Burg posted  at 33n Rain and is saying there is still room for adjustments to bring us back!!



The EPS members that target NYC metro for the heaviest snowfall have one thing in common - the sfc low occludes & slows down farther SW closer to Long Island


Something to keep an eye on as we try to narrow down where the heaviest snow will fall

Quietace wrote:I should also note that yes, positive differential diabatic heating in the middle troposphrere does lead to height falls (See QG height tendency). However, on a mean state, small areas of differential diabatic heating far ahead of the trough axis is quite small compared to the same just to the east relative to the trough axis location. Another arguemnt agaist that.

love your mind..but we need this translated to non weather little people please!!

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Still a double barrell low at the surface. Odd, and not entierly buying it, but we will see.

Hey Ryan. Nice to se you back. It looks like it’s chasing this convection. I bet that’s the reason for the double barrel slp. These little details ie exactly where these embedddd vorticies end up will be very diff to nail down in a model. Even this close.

I really will be facinated during real time to see if that was the nerror (or in reality can a storm chase convection?)

Well, deep convection is pretty good for mass evacuation. The question is whether this gargled mess of vorticity out ahead of the midlatitude trough will feature enough synoptic scale forcing and mass evacuation to be the dominant low pressure for the ETC. If you follow the low trajectory on the ECMWF, there is jump to the NE at a specific timestep. Is that legitimate? You can argue both ways based on the H5 fields and the surface low evolution from the Southeast, hence why you see a almost meso-like surface reflection off the NJ coast whilst there also being the main surface low near boston. Realistically, ETC's aren't driven my small areas of convection. Yet, models often attach themselves to it based on how they resolve convection on their grids. I do not buy it based on the location of max PVA and the midlattiude trough location. Forcing is more favorable in the location South of LI, especially given the location of the EER and PER of the 250 hPa jets.

A Met from another board agrees…. I hate to use this but convection chasing. This closes shunts east towards convection and recloses. Now of course a sloppy phase can do this, however the model verbatim looks to be chasing. That H5 should have buried NJ to N. England.

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:Still a double barrell low at the surface. Odd, and not entierly buying it, but we will see.

Hey Ryan. Nice to se you back. It looks like it’s chasing this convection. I bet that’s the reason for the double barrel slp. These little details ie exactly where these embedddd vorticies end up will be very diff to nail down in a model. Even this close.

I really will be facinated during real time to see if that was the nerror (or in reality can a storm chase convection?)

Well, deep convection is pretty good for mass evacuation. The question is whether this gargled mess of vorticity out ahead of the midlatitude trough will feature enough synoptic scale forcing and mass evacuation to be the dominant low pressure for the ETC. If you follow the low trajectory on the ECMWF, there is jump to the NE at a specific timestep. Is that legitimate? You can argue both ways based on the H5 fields and the surface low evolution from the Southeast, hence why you see a almost meso-like surface reflection off the NJ coast whilst there also being the main surface low near boston. Realistically, ETC's aren't driven my small areas of convection. Yet, models often attach themselves to it based on how they resolve convection on their grids. I do not buy it based on the location of max PVA and the midlattiude trough location. Forcing is more favorable in the location South of LI, especially given the location of the EER and PER of the 250 hPa jets.

Bingo!.  Ryan your abilities has advanced leaps and bounds.  You said what I couldn't.  I am in lock step with everything, except can you explain Mass evacuation of the dominat Low?  I think I get it but wouldnt mind clarification.  Thanks

Just that the psuedo magnitude of surface pressure falls can be tied to mean state upper-level divergent forcing.
Favorable entrance and exit jet streak location -> upper level divergent forcing.
Cyclonic vorticity advection (positive in NH) increasing with height indicates -> ascent -> ascent -> mass evacuation -> mass must go somewhere (divergence)
Warm advection -> ascent (as stated in QG omega)-> ditto.
General formation and intensification of an ETC in a baroclinic enviorment.

Edit: I guess I should clarify a bit more....Pressure falls are important because the more mass that is evacuated, the more mass that must be replaced. This means air must move into the region that is being evacuated. Hence, surface convegence forms and becuase of force balances, is cyclonic in nature. Its a cyclical, positive feedback process that allows for the intensifcation of the ETCs. Again important for our case, but again physics suggests the model is incorrect.
Classic cyclogensis rules are:
1. CVA downstream of an upper-level trough contributes to pressure falls and cyclogenesis
2. WAA contributes to pressure falls and cyclogenesis
3. Diabatic heating contributes to pressure falls and cyclogenesis
4. In frontal cyclone development, all three processes contribute to a mutual amplification of the surface cyclone and upper level wave
5. low static stability is great
6. Stretching downstream of topography can also contribute (east of MT ranges).

DT's first guess

WHO WANTS TO BE SREFFED UP??