JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

mmanisca wrote:Actual snow ratios anyone? Seems like 15:1 is probably reasonable!

oh ya at least, its gonna be bone cold, especially if those winds verify, i love to go out in big snowstorms but this one might be a bit difficult.

Thanks, Jman, but it ain’t happening…….yet lol I’m excited, but I also realize Mother Nature doesn’t care what our opinions and guesses are as to what she’s crafting for us, so I’m not celebrating yet hahaha

And, I don’t try to predict what other outlets will do. I just stick with the weather, Jman haha

check this out, this map shows what ratios may b, yes it is the K ratios but still looking like 15:1-20:1 wow

rb924119 wrote:Thanks, Jman, but it ain’t happening…….yet lol I’m excited, but I also realize Mother Nature doesn’t care what our opinions and guesses are as to what she’s crafting for us, so I’m not celebrating yet hahaha

And, I don’t try to predict what other outlets will do. I just stick with the weather, Jman haha

Whats not happening? How far west the NAM went or those insane K snow maps? I am good with the 10:1 and if we get 15:1 thats 20 inches for my area thats great!! Though NWS still has me for 6-9....

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Thanks, Jman, but it ain’t happening…….yet lol I’m excited, but I also realize Mother Nature doesn’t care what our opinions and guesses are as to what she’s crafting for us, so I’m not celebrating yet hahaha

And, I don’t try to predict what other outlets will do. I just stick with the weather, Jman haha

Whats not happening? How far west the NAM went or those insane K snow maps? I am good with the 10:1 and if we get 15:1 thats 20 inches for my area thats great!! Though NWS still has me for 6-9....

I know it’s gonna go up for us I hope to storm slam‘s us very well for us we deserve this

Anyone notice it kinda stalls over cape area on nam, this may obtain a eye too, the center on reflectivity maps is void of anything. The nam came so far west it is just incredible hopefully we see that in future 06z and 12z runs, after that i think maybe 18z models will be worth watching then its zoom time? I am in if anyone else is.

Heck I think we gotta go 15:1 on ratios with everything thru the atmosphere being as cold as it is. I couldn’t find any charts other than ones that just take straight air temps at agl which is saying 15:1. Of course there’s a lot more to it than ground level temps! But for western Suffolk even the gfs at 15:1 gives just under 2 feet!

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Thanks, Jman, but it ain’t happening…….yet lol I’m excited, but I also realize Mother Nature doesn’t care what our opinions and guesses are as to what she’s crafting for us, so I’m not celebrating yet hahaha

And, I don’t try to predict what other outlets will do. I just stick with the weather, Jman haha

Whats not happening? How far west the NAM went or those insane K snow maps? I am good with the 10:1 and if we get 15:1 thats 20 inches for my area thats great!! Though NWS still has me for 6-9....

I meant the storm isn’t occurring yet haha until I see it evolving, I will not celebrate, even though internally I’m ready to explode with excitement for a couple of different reasons lol

RB, what are the chances it comes far enough west for me (Scranton) to see anything?

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Thanks, Jman, but it ain’t happening…….yet lol I’m excited, but I also realize Mother Nature doesn’t care what our opinions and guesses are as to what she’s crafting for us, so I’m not celebrating yet hahaha

And, I don’t try to predict what other outlets will do. I just stick with the weather, Jman haha

Whats not happening? How far west the NAM went or those insane K snow maps? I am good with the 10:1 and if we get 15:1 thats 20 inches for my area thats great!! Though NWS still has me for 6-9....

I meant the storm isn’t occurring yet haha until I see it evolving, I will not celebrate, even though internally I’m ready to explode with excitement for a couple of different reasons lol

LOL ahh yes of course yes its not here yet makes perfect sense.

LOl GFS is still lost, gives me 3 inches. shifted east a tiny bit which is not great but im taking this goofus model with a grain of salt.

Mike,

You’ll get some light snow/periods of light snow today, but aside from that, it’s a tough call with respect to the coastal. I haven’t looked intently on accumulations since I haven’t done a map, but excluding the snow today, I don’t see you getting more than 2 or 3”. Pike County will really be the screw zone, where out by my parents by Lake Wallenpaupack they get 2-4/3-6, but they end up with double that in Milford. Wherever that back line sets up, whoever is just west of it will get shafted badly. That’s how these storms work. It is an extremely sharp cutoff. Unfortunately, I think you’re too far west for anything really meaningful even if this comes as far west as I think it could/will. I stand by my thoughts that this ends up as an I-95 special, or just west of there, for the snow axis. But once get into eastern Pa, those totals drop fast.

rb924119 wrote:Mike,

You’ll get some light snow/periods of light snow today, but aside from that, it’s a tough call with respect to the coastal. I haven’t looked intently on accumulations since I haven’t done a map, but excluding the snow today, I don’t see you getting more than 2 or 3”. Pike County will really be the screw zone, where out by my parents by Lake Wallenpaupack they get 2-4/3-6, but they end up with double that in Milford. Wherever that back line sets up, whoever is just west of it will get shafted badly. That’s how these storms work. It is an extremely sharp cutoff. Unfortunately, I think you’re too far west for anything really meaningful even if this comes as far west as I think it could/will. I stand by my thoughts that this ends up as an I-95 special, or just west of there, for the snow axis. But once get into eastern Pa, those totals drop fast.

Thanks, I want to make sure I am prepared just in case, I highly doubt I see anything at this point lol

Ha ha, bullseye! But I'm not digging the snowblower out of the shed until it actually starts snowing! That thing has magical powers, lol

Frank_Wx wrote:

The storm is getting tugged closer to the coast as the 500mb close off occurs faster and closer to the coast.  This is very common scenario in these types of systems and models will struggle with just how long it sits and how close it gets.  There is a limit to westward progression, but still think there's room for a bit more.

I think blizzard warning will be posted for nyc look how close we are to it already right across down river

Rb had said I95 could do quite well and I think he's right.

STATEMENT FROM BERNIE RAYNO (LOL, I always wanted to write that): I have seen this many times in the past. You ride the NAM on this, it isn't perfect and will likely be overdone in some areas, but overall it will out perform the GFS and EURO. Twitter live at 5:45 am.

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) January 28, 2022

heehaw453 wrote:Rb had said I95 could do quite well and I think he's right.

Where the nam is at right now is perfect for 95 not to much further west or u may take many out of tgat death band . I'll take it as it sits I know k map at 32 inches is too high but even the 10:1 map at 15:1 is crazy. I just don't get nws with their low total barely a wsw and much lower winds. I'm pretty sure Upton changes their mind and will not at all be surprised to see blizzard headlines at 12z. Upton is known for making their decision last

I am rather concerned about the wind with every westward movement they are go increase the closer we get to center.i could see scattered power issues from NYC area jrsy shore to CT and MA. It's way to cold to lose power.

When is snow expected to taper off on saturday?

Hey Jman actually weather channel has 5to8 tonight and 5to 8 sat which is 10 to 16 right in nyc

Carvin wrote:Hey Jman actually weather channel has 5to8 tonight and 5to 8 sat which is 10 to 16 right in nyc

Twc is garbage but it's laughable they are higher than new. Thanks thpugh 10 to 16 might be low though if jam is right. Usually their forecasts go strictly off the gfs but maybe they did something cuz 06z gfs was crummy

lglickman1 wrote:When is snow expected to taper off on saturday?

I think evening. Yes this will be close to a 24 HR storm but worst will be sat am to late day. If it's slower or stalls could be even better. We track!

Like it or leave it my final call.  Work prevents me from participating in the discussion throughout the day with the exception of the pop in comments.  Today will likely be no different.  I know we arent quite finished yet, but I must say the hunt of this storm has been really exciting.  The ups and downs have been unreal.  I think there is obviously a consensus that has been reached for the most part with perhaps some of the finer details still yet to come.  

Yes there were several jumpers a day or two ago but I think fortunately the main core of us were able to provide enough life preservers to save the snow weenie lives of most of you.  Climb back aboard and get yourself next to the fire, and have yourselves a hot tottie and lets enjoy whatever white gold mother nature has in store for us.   

Hi everyone been following this board since the channel 7 days. I really enjoy reading all of your analysis and appreciate the humor as well! I'm in Monmouth County at the shore, channel 7 is still saying 6 to 12 for us, is that accurate?

Angela0621 wrote:Hi everyone been following this board since the channel 7 days.  I really enjoy reading all of your analysis and appreciate the humor as well!  I'm in Monmouth County at the shore, channel 7 is still saying 6 to 12 for us, is that accurate?

Welcome and thanks for posting..
NO WAY !!! THEY will up it this afternoon.