JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Angela0621- Posts : 43
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Angela0621 wrote:Hi everyone been following this board since the channel 7 days. I really enjoy reading all of your analysis and appreciate the humor as well! I'm in Monmouth County at the shore, channel 7 is still saying 6 to 12 for us, is that accurate?
Welcome and thanks for posting..
NO WAY !!! THEY will up it this afternoon.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
mmanisca- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
The title of this thread really hits home, as there will certainly be some heartache. The cut-off from 12"+ totals to coating to 2" will be so extreme in my opinion, especially with the deformation banding structures showing up on guidance now that the dynamics of the storm are better resolved, yet still imperfect in my opinion. The subsidence these bands will cause will likely make for asymmetric snowfall totals, and again, the extreme cut-offs. The DGZ has been well aligned in the best bending in the regions of the strongest vertical ascent. This combined with the cold temperatures has aligned for VERY GOOD snow growth in the regions most favored for heavy snowfall. I have a feeling that the west shift is not done, and coastal regions will do quite well. Inland regions though are a different story again due to the aforementioned issues.
EDIT: THE WORD IS ALREADY BANNED
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
sroc4 wrote:Like it or leave it my final call. Work prevents me from participating in the discussion throughout the day with the exception of the pop in comments. Today will likely be no different. I know we arent quite finished yet, but I must say the hunt of this storm has been really exciting. The ups and downs have been unreal. I think there is obviously a consensus that has been reached for the most part with perhaps some of the finer details still yet to come.
Yes there were several jumpers a day or two ago but I think fortunately the main core of us were able to provide enough life preservers to save the snow weenie lives of most of you. Climb back aboard and get yourself next to the fire, and have yourselves a hot tottie and lets enjoy whatever white gold mother nature has in store for us.
Good call. Long Island is in for a heck of a storm. My generator and snow plow are ready.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
For those that get the brunt of this storm it's going to be an uncommon and severe experience. Careful with shoveling and exposure to the cold.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
DEZ004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-282130-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0004.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-
Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Rehoboth Beach, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Jackson, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City,
Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton State Forest
323 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
* WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections
of Sussex County in Delaware.
* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty
winds could bring down tree branches.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday
evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most
likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through
midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at
or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down
Saturday afternoon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL
Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL
Maybe they don’t want to jinx it. Lol
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
mmanisca wrote:aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL
Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??
In reading the 6:00 am discussion they said eastern Long Island could see that criteria. But we shall see in the next update.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
mmanisca wrote:aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL
Probably wait till the evening shift Im guessing??
hopefully after a full day of runs enough data will show further west adjustments
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
aiannone wrote:Where the heck is my Blizzard Warning. I WANT IT! LOL
You said the B word, so now you won't get it!
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
I think that area may be in for a surprise but not a good one based on my previous discussion on the location of intense banding being focused in coastal regions. Given the already dry environment in western regions, any additional subsidence and forcing that destroys snow growth will lead to very very intense cut-offs. I highly doubt that area circled sees more than 6 inches of snowfall.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Oh man that 29 inches (I know its the K word) is literally 30 miles away rb I think we can easily get that push into NYC, and hochul is go have a handful to deal with as well as the new mayor, his 1st snowstorm. Dont get me wrong as the Euro sits it is still decent for NYC. and immediate surrounding areas, I expect to see 12z models especially NAM show that 30 mile push maybe more west, now is the LP shifting or just the expansion of the snowfall field?
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:00 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
sroc4 wrote:My neighbor just texted me. Outdoor fire pit, cigars, and adult beverages tonight at 9pm. Doesn’t get any better than that.
What about naked snow angels?
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Quietace wrote:I think that area may be in for a surprise but not a good one based on my previous discussion on the location of intense banding being focused in coastal regions. Given the already dry environment in western regions, any additional subsidence and forcing that destroys snow growth will lead to very very intense cut-offs. I highly doubt that area circled sees more than 6 inches of snowfall.
That's true. Boxing Day kind played out that way. More meridional mesoscale banding.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Godzilla mode activated
Observations thread created
2nd call snow map later today
Life. Is. Good!
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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