JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

jmanley32 wrote:CMC is a substantial shift east almost takes city out of 6 inches and LI sees up to 12 or so. Wish I could say throw it out but the trend at 12z has been less snowfall from NYC west, not cool. ray i really hope you are right with nowcasting, reel this baby in.

CMC chased convection again and created the double barrel low. The eastern low robbed the moisture from the western low. WE TOSS!

My opinion on ratios, look at the 850 temp and surface temp, as long as there is not any funky stuff going on at the 700 mb range with some warm air intrusion. In the case of this storm, the depth of the cold air thru the layers will hold. Surface temps in the teens , I am looking for at least amn 18 to 20 ratio. This would specifically be NW of the storm over NNJ.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:The RAP is nice. Never used it before, though, so no idea of its performance history, anecdotally or otherwise lol

where do you find the RAP?

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/#

I like the RAP : ) has me at about a foot and very close to seeing over that literally a birds eye from Queens to yonkers.  Probably if we are go look at any models should only be SR and meso. If you use the dreaded hated K snow map its almost 20 inches for NYC metro and surrounding areas. more as you head east. as CP said should prolly only use regular snow maps though but ratios will be more than 10:1, k map is showing about 18:1

aiannone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:CMC is a substantial shift east almost takes city out of 6 inches and LI sees up to 12 or so. Wish I could say throw it out but the trend at 12z has been less snowfall from NYC west, not cool. ray i really hope you are right with nowcasting, reel this baby in.

CMC chased convection again and created the double barrel low. The eastern low robbed the moisture from the western low. WE TOSS!

I saw that but wasn't sure, yes then it is a toss.

Wow on RAP the winds stick around for a very long time all way to just west of NYC, strongest on LI and east of there but NYC sees some pretty stiff winds, if you go out better bundle big time.

Quietace wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Every time I see a k-uchera snow map I die a little inside.

There's a reason I banned the word on here.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Cantore’s always has to be where the biggest snows are forecast. Hope he dry slots.

LOL!!!!!!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I think it's time to stop posting Crapola (K uchera) maps, Ace said it best, and it was a Frank rule until this storm. They're fun in banter but not the day before a storm. For one they are probably over inflated in most places and they make expectations which are already high sky high, and that's usually a bad thing.

Expect less and be happy with more if you get it. A good philosophy for life too btw.

Here here

rb924119 wrote:The RAP is nice. Never used it before, though, so no idea of its performance history, anecdotally or otherwise lol

Pretty sure it is useless but one can dream

aiannone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:CMC is a substantial shift east almost takes city out of 6 inches and LI sees up to 12 or so. Wish I could say throw it out but the trend at 12z has been less snowfall from NYC west, not cool. ray i really hope you are right with nowcasting, reel this baby in.

CMC chased convection again and created the double barrel low. The eastern low robbed the moisture from the western low. WE TOSS!

Pretty sure at this point it is a possibility. We need the meso-low to be the more dominant (westerly) low, but does not seem like that is going to happen. Ryan or Ray can talk more about that.

WeatherBob wrote:My opinion on ratios, look at the 850 temp and surface temp, as long as there is not any funky stuff going on at the 700 mb range with some warm air intrusion. In the case of this storm, the depth of the cold air thru the layers will hold.  Surface temps in the teens , I am looking for at least amn 18 to 20 ratio.  This would specifically be NW of the storm over NNJ.

Bob thanks so much for chiming in. Awesome news for NW fringes - .5" could give 8-10" basically by said ratios which is a nice hit.

What are your thoughts - love to hear them on the evolutions - Westward tick? close off a bit earlier? east tick? NAM and models chasing latent heat convection off teh double barrel low?

Seems like we have 2 camps here in regard to how this storm performs for our neck of the woods, side 1 is leaning towards a more eastward solution with sharp cutoffs to the west due to dry air issues and camp 2 suggests models are not reading this complex set up right and that there will be a more westward lean bringing heavier snows further west, but there will be sharp cut offs as well the further west you go. Does that sound right?

Just a reminder to everyone that Super and Holroyd (1997) found a correlation between snow density and surface air temperature between 2322 data points at an east coast location to be 0.06 (R=0.06).....or low...Especially on the east coast, the surface temperature is not the only factor. I am not saying that 15-20:1 is not possible, but with the winds at the surface affecting dendrite growth and how cold the upper levels will be on the NW side of the precip shield, it is not going to be perfect. In fact, dendrite growth may be best a bit further east in the strongest banding. And remember, snowfall ratios are LE to Snow depth...you need the precip to reach the ground.

HRRR

lglickman1 wrote:Seems like we have 2 camps here in regard to how this storm performs for our neck of the woods, side 1 is leaning towards a more eastward solution with sharp cutoffs to the west due to dry air issues and camp 2 suggests models are not reading this complex set up right and that there will be a more westward lean bringing heavier snows further west, but there will be sharp cut offs as well the further west you go.  Does that sound right?

I think so. In reality, I don't think camp 1 and 2 are very far off from each other either. Maybe 50 miles apart.

Quietace wrote:Just a reminder to everyone that Super and Holroyd (1997) found a correlation between snow density and surface air temperature between 2322 data points at an east coast location to be 0.06 (R=0.06).....or low...Especially on the east coast, the surface temperature is not the only factor. I am not saying that 15-20:1 is not possible, but with the winds at the surface affecting dendrite growth and how cold the upper levels will be on the NW side of the precip shield, it is not going to be perfect. In fact, dendrite growth may be best a bit further east in the strongest banding. And remember, snowfall ratios are LE to Snow depth...you need the precip to reach the ground.

Agree

Is anyone familiar with this website? It's a little intimidating for a novice like me, but offers a ton of information. It is from Penn State Dept. of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ewall.html

GreyBeard wrote:Is anyone familiar with this website? It's a little intimidating for a novice like me, but offers a ton of information. It is from Penn State Dept. of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ewall.html

It is a little outdated for my liking but it works really well if you like their maps

EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

I am still looking for 18 to 20 ratios with this storm on the NW side, 850 temps will be around -10 C with surface temps in the teens. However, with the wind and “fluffiness” of the snow, I doubt anyone will have an exact snow measurement and the recorded QPF at stations by the NWS will not have an exact also. I doubt if we reall will verify this with the storm.

WeatherBob wrote:My opinion on ratios, look at the 850 temp and surface temp, as long as there is not any funky stuff going on at the 700 mb range with some warm air intrusion. In the case of this storm, the depth of the cold air thru the layers will hold.  Surface temps in the teens , I am looking for at least amn 18 to 20 ratio.  This would specifically be NW of the storm over NNJ.

Thanks Bob. I have read on another board that strong winds tend to fracture dendrites and hold ratios down a bit. Here in Dutchess county I expect winds tomorrow in the 20-25mph range so not the stronger winds out east.

aiannone wrote:Now I will be greedy and say how can we prevent this cutter Wed-Thurs with 45+ degree temps so when we go back to the freezer friday night we still have a snowpack lol

been busy and just catching up..30 degrees and the light snow has stopped..but I TOTALLY AGREE with you I saw the temps at end of week..come on..

Quietace- love the science . Keep on coming with your knowledge!

EURO initialized as a 1013mb SLP off the Florida coast with isobars pointing NE



Actual OBS show it at 1012mb and isobars pointed more N. Maybe I am reaching here...

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO initialized as a 1013mb SLP off the Florida coast with isobars pointing NE



Actual OBS show it at 1012mb and isobars pointed more N. Maybe I am reaching here...

We haven't seen that before have we?

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO initialized as a 1013mb SLP off the Florida coast with isobars pointing NE



Actual OBS show it at 1012mb and isobars pointed more N. Maybe I am reaching here...

That is normally a decent locale to start from for I95. And it's not reaching IMO to compare observations at this juncture.

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO initialized as a 1013mb SLP off the Florida coast with isobars pointing NE



Actual OBS show it at 1012mb and isobars pointed more N. Maybe I am reaching here...

Doesn't seem like reaching given the struggles the models have had to date and the many known issues around this type of setup / models that have been pointed out ad nauseum by many on this board.

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

I have not seen all the models but I would think that even with the axis of heaviest snow off shore most of the area would likely still see a very good snowfall for the most part

Euro hi-res has the low at 1010mb. That's 6 hrs later. Misread the map.

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

Frank, absolutely no disrespect here, but I’m not even really paying attention to models anymore. For me, it’s purely observations/analysis, knowledge, and experience guiding me from now on.

That said, here’s what I’m seeing on satellite:




Red: mid-level flow (say roughly H7-H5)
Yellow: upper-level flow (say roughly H3)
Green arrows: angle of movement

This is WELL ahead of guidance, and the trajectory of that central CONUS energy is COMPLETELY different. This supports the observation of an earlier backing flow downstream, as does the SPC Meso’s depiction of the H5 wind (implied vorticity).