JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

Frank, absolutely no disrespect here, but I’m not even really paying attention to models anymore. For me, it’s purely observations/analysis, knowledge, and experience guiding me from now on.

That said, here’s what I’m seeing on satellite:




Red: mid-level flow (say roughly H7-H5)
Yellow: upper-level flow (say roughly H3)
Green arrows: angle of movement

This is WELL ahead of guidance, and the trajectory of that central CONUS energy is COMPLETELY different. This supports the observation of an earlier backing flow downstream, as does the SPC Meso’s depiction of the H5 wind (implied vorticity).

EURO has shifted east. Not shocking

Am I reading that right when I say it looks like the trough is a little more positively tilted than it was at 6z?

Keep it up Frank! Love the blow by blow!

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

Frank, absolutely no disrespect here, but I’m not even really paying attention to models anymore. For me, it’s purely observations/analysis, knowledge, and experience guiding me from now on.

That said, here’s what I’m seeing on satellite:




Red: mid-level flow (say roughly H7-H5)
Yellow: upper-level flow (say roughly H3)
Green arrows: angle of movement

This is WELL ahead of guidance, and the trajectory of that central CONUS energy is COMPLETELY different. This supports the observation of an earlier backing flow downstream, as does the SPC Meso’s depiction of the H5 wind (implied vorticity).

English translation would be a godsend with this post...

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

Frank, absolutely no disrespect here, but I’m not even really paying attention to models anymore. For me, it’s purely observations/analysis, knowledge, and experience guiding me from now on.

That said, here’s what I’m seeing on satellite:




Red: mid-level flow (say roughly H7-H5)
Yellow: upper-level flow (say roughly H3)
Green arrows: angle of movement

This is WELL ahead of guidance, and the trajectory of that central CONUS energy is COMPLETELY different. This supports the observation of an earlier backing flow downstream, as does the SPC Meso’s depiction of the H5 wind (implied vorticity).

Is this a good or bad thing?

This hurts! We have model agreement and most are well east from last nights model runs. We'll have to see how this plays out later today.

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO initialized as a 1013mb SLP off the Florida coast with isobars pointing NE



Actual OBS show it at 1012mb and isobars pointed more N. Maybe I am reaching here...

Further support for my above observations lol also, love that longitude INSIDE Hatteras. I think that’s a bit further…….west?

Frank_Wx wrote:This hurts! We have model agreement and most are well east from last nights model runs. We'll have to see how this plays out later today.

Not good. Let's see how it goes...

This is nuts. I'm not getting any snow from this and I'm still hitting refresh every 10 or 15 seconds.

Since the beginning it's almost been a 24 hour cycle with this F'n storm.

East one day, west the next, east the next then west. At least tonight's 0Z's should be our day to go west again. Hopefully it won't be to late for most to get something significant

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

Frank, absolutely no disrespect here, but I’m not even really paying attention to models anymore. For me, it’s purely observations/analysis, knowledge, and experience guiding me from now on.

That said, here’s what I’m seeing on satellite:




Red: mid-level flow (say roughly H7-H5)
Yellow: upper-level flow (say roughly H3)
Green arrows: angle of movement

This is WELL ahead of guidance, and the trajectory of that central CONUS energy is COMPLETELY different. This supports the observation of an earlier backing flow downstream, as does the SPC Meso’s depiction of the H5 wind (implied vorticity).

Sorry I missed this. And no disrespect...good analysis and observation. I think it quite possible all of the 12z models were fed some bad data and we need one more cycle to confirm them. You would hope at least one model backs up your thinking, but maybe not!!

Euro had the ULL close of later and not as deep.  Consequently the precip was reduced. It comes down to when that actually happens. That seems more nowcasting to me.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

Frank, absolutely no disrespect here, but I’m not even really paying attention to models anymore. For me, it’s purely observations/analysis, knowledge, and experience guiding me from now on.

That said, here’s what I’m seeing on satellite:




Red: mid-level flow (say roughly H7-H5)
Yellow: upper-level flow (say roughly H3)
Green arrows: angle of movement

This is WELL ahead of guidance, and the trajectory of that central CONUS energy is COMPLETELY different. This supports the observation of an earlier backing flow downstream, as does the SPC Meso’s depiction of the H5 wind (implied vorticity).

English translation would be a godsend with this post...

I’m outlining what I am seeing as the atmospheric flow at a couple different levels. In the middle portion (red) there’s a distinct negative tilt to the whole system already, versus more of a neutral to slightly positive tilt at this time in the modeling. The yellow shows the flow higher up, and is on there for comparison, since in the animation, some clouds are moving in different directions. The green arrows indicate the direction that the flows are moving.

Irish, yes, this bodes well if my interpretation is correct (which it at least seems to be on track basis Frank’s surface pressure post).

I might have an “outlier opinion” but specifically with NNJ , SE NY - NW of NYC, no change here. Still thinking at least 18 to 1 ratio, with a qpf of around .5. Still see me in that 6 to 10 range. See how thins developes with the qpf field.

This model back and forth is maddening. I hope RB is right.

Something tells me models overcorrected east. It's just a feeling based off current observations and I have confidence in what Ray is saying as well. It may not mean much to western areas, because I truly think sinking air may hurt them, but the coastal areas (Shore to LI) should still expect a Godzilla from this. My updated snow map will come out soon-ish.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO starts running in 15 minutes

NAM, RGEM and CMC shifted heaviest axis of snow east and offshore

GFS for the most part held serve or improved slightly from 06z

IF the EURO does shift east a bit I would not be surprised given trends at 12z so far. IF we do see a bump back west it would probably happen at 00z tonight.

Frank, absolutely no disrespect here, but I’m not even really paying attention to models anymore. For me, it’s purely observations/analysis, knowledge, and experience guiding me from now on.

That said, here’s what I’m seeing on satellite:




Red: mid-level flow (say roughly H7-H5)
Yellow: upper-level flow (say roughly H3)
Green arrows: angle of movement

This is WELL ahead of guidance, and the trajectory of that central CONUS energy is COMPLETELY different. This supports the observation of an earlier backing flow downstream, as does the SPC Meso’s depiction of the H5 wind (implied vorticity).

Sorry I missed this. And no disrespect...good analysis and observation. I think it quite possible all of the 12z models were fed some bad data and we need one more cycle to confirm them. You would hope at least one model backs up your thinking, but maybe not!!

Certainly wouldn’t be the first time that I’ve been marooned on an island alone aha seems to happen quite frequently, as my frayed nerves can surely attest lmao right or wrong, it’s how ya learn and get better, though.

12z EURO

by the time were done Long Island weill be the jackpot with 6 inches of snow!

It's a subtle thing but how the flow backs up will determine how fast the ULL closes off IMO.  The more the flow backs up the more likely there is large snowfall just from the fetch alone.  That probably has to with the tilt of the trough which probably gets determined by the strength of the phasing.  It's kinda all related IMO.  Others plz chime in on that if wrong.

More SE flow


Less SE flow

Frank_Wx wrote:This hurts! We have model agreement and most are well east from last nights model runs. We'll have to see how this plays out later today.

Screw the Euro, its trash anyway! As RB said the time for nowcasting is upon us! I would say if anything, short range models like NAM or HRR...

Frank_Wx wrote:

Still gives me 4 or 5 inches which I will take being on the NW fringe.

Blizzard Warning issued for all of Suffolk County and extreme south eastern CT.

This piece of circled energy is maybe? why teh Euro jumped the low east? Onto to real time observations folks, done with models with this storm (for now?)