Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[docstox12]

The mets here were spot on with the analysis that a storm would come about.It has and it's a doozy.Just bad luck that it is steering west of us.
The tri state area is just a very difficult geography to have all the elements come together for a big snowstorm.It is either too far East or too far West.The snow belt areas like the Tug Hill NY for lake effect or Northern NH,VT and ME are always locks for snow.Lucky geography there.
Always remember what Bill Evans said years ago..."models are for guidance purposes only"!

[dkodgis]

Doc, you are up with the larks.

14 degrees at 6 am.

Yes, I have read wind gusts up to 50 mph and heavy rain coming. I think up here I will get an inch or two somewhere along the line, only to see it ripped away by rain. The temp drop looks to be rapid. I know this is Wed so all this should be in the long range

[sroc4]

Thank you Irish for those kind words. It is really appreciated

[MattyICE]

For what it’s worth - Bernie rayno stuck his neck out early while models showed a coastal and nailed that it would be a cutter. When I see something like that I go back and watch his videos and re-read his posts and learn as much as I can. For THIS threat 100% it’s a bit of a reach but I do think - if we miss - we still will get the models to flirt a bit for some tracking fun. This time there is no question about a solid antecedent air mass. We also have to wait for this TPV cyclone to move on through to see how it effects SE Canada (block, confluence, 50/50). If things DO trend favorably it’ll be a remarkable Christmas Eve and Day full of us sneaking away to see what kind of bomb the Euro dropped. “Sorry honey, be right back!” And if not, our time will come!

[heehaw453]

12/27 window biggest nemesis IMO is the fast PAC flow that starts to develop.  It'll tend to want to push hard on the trough and inhibit development. If it's a bit less aggressive and/or the s/w at the base of the trough can get some energy from the north then it can it can phase and have a shot.  Let's face it our luck so far has been poor to date, but many times you get a shot at something when pattern reshuffles.  Low probability for now...

[heehaw453]

Today's Euro shows how the PAC flow becoming fast breaks the ridge down with incoming troughs and disconnects the two pieces of energy.  It starts off good (first picture) then the fast flow kills it (second picture). No phase as the ridge is getting broken down by fast moving troughs. 500mb trough stays positive and result is weak and OTS.  That's the key to whether or not this has a shot. If that flow can back off a bit then yep it will have a shot.

[Frank_Wx]

Today's Euro shows how the PAC flow becoming fast breaks the ridge down with incoming troughs and disconnects the two pieces of energy.  It starts off good (first picture) then the fast flow kills it (second picture). No phase as the ridge is getting broken down by fast moving troughs. 500mb trough stays positive and result is weak and OTS.  That's the key to whether or not this has a shot. If that flow can back off a bit then yep it will have a shot.

Agree with your analysis. At first I thought maybe the confluence in the northeast was too strong, but as I look again it’s the breakdown of the ridge that kills this event. That said, would be interesting to see what happens with the TPV this weekend. If models are overstating it I wonder if that allows next weeks storm to phase. All we need is a phase…

[Math23x7]

The New Year's timeframe looks like a blowtorch.

[Irish]

The New Year's timeframe looks like a blowtorch.

Yup, saw that, freaking horrendous! We could be approaching 60 degrees on new years eve, new years day and the 2nd!

[frank 638]

The New Year's timeframe looks like a blowtorch.

Yup, saw that, freaking horrendous!  We could be approaching 60 degrees on new years eve, new years day and the 2nd!

unbelievable so sad and frustrating

[dolphins222]

Please tell me this will be short lived. 50s in jan feel disgusting

[heehaw453]

Euro last night ULL starts to close off in TN.  Doesn't get there on this run, but continue to watch the western ridge and how the northern energy can be merged into it. I don't like the fast moving PAC flow, but again it's all about something well timed.  Doesn't matter what the pattern is it's timing and a supply of cold air.

[Frank_Wx]

Pretty incredible to see both North America and Europe over massive domes of High Pressure (ridges) at the same time in the long range.



All the cold is in northern parts of the Atlantic and Pacific. I believe there’s a couple of reasons for this. The PV in the Stratosphere has been battling intense wave two warming that has lead to significant weakening and the developing of a -NAO in the troposphere. I think HeeHaw mentioned this already, but our window of opportunity for a storm started last week when we saw the EPO go nearly record negative levels, and saw the NAO also go negative (hence wave 2. The window has now shut. The Strat PV never underwent a true SSWE that leads to a permanent displacement off the Pole or even a split into two. It was a temporary warming event and we’re now seeing it regain its strength over the Pole.



Secondly, the La Niña regime and lack of tropical forcing in the MJO region is aiding the Pacific in maintaining its progressiveness.



It’s a very sad look right now. It’s hard to say when we’ll see our pattern change. It feels like in the last several years, December into early January has been subpar from a winter weather sense. Our pattern seems to change at the end of January, which gives us hope for February and March.

[heehaw453]

By my eye there's enough of a ridge there to drop that northern piece into the trough, so long as the trailing trough in Alberta backs off. Models still say no and I'll give it until after this current storm clears out this weekend.  Probably another miss but somewhat close.

[sroc4]

By my eye there's enough of a ridge there to drop that northern piece into the trough, so long as the trailing trough in Alberta backs off. Models still say no and I'll give it until after this current storm clears out this weekend.  Probably another miss but somewhat close.

Just for some perspective same time stamp GFS, CMC, and NAM(still a bit out of range).  Certainly enough variation to keep things interesting.  This is not far off at all by a couple of mechanisms.  
Slow the northern energy a bit and/or speed up the trough to allow it to dig into the back side of our trough.  Result would be a more mod event developing.  Or perhaps stay N and weaker and a tad faster in order to get out of the way for the trough to do its own thing instead of being pushed S&E and progressive by the N energy as is currently modeled. Result would be a more mild event. Asa it stands too much confluence by current depiction of the N energy.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1671775200/1672077600-QIuR3zYcRpM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/conus/vort500_z500/1671753600/1672077600-S07tQpSb4QA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/conus/vort500_z500/1671775200/1672077600-h6dOawwMMAs.png

[sroc4]

By my eye there's enough of a ridge there to drop that northern piece into the trough, so long as the trailing trough in Alberta backs off. Models still say no and I'll give it until after this current storm clears out this weekend.  Probably another miss but somewhat close.

Just for some perspective same time stamp GFS, CMC, and NAM(still a bit out of range).  Certainly enough variation to keep things interesting.  This is not far off at all by a couple of mechanisms.  
Slow the northern energy a bit and/or speed up the trough to allow it to dig into the back side of our trough.  Result would be a more mod event developing.  Or perhaps stay N and weaker and a tad faster in order to get out of the way for the trough to do its own thing instead of being pushed S&E and progressive by the N energy as is currently modeled. Result would be a more mild event.  Asa it stands too much confluence by current depiction of the N energy.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1671775200/1672077600-QIuR3zYcRpM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/conus/vort500_z500/1671753600/1672077600-S07tQpSb4QA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/conus/vort500_z500/1671775200/1672077600-h6dOawwMMAs.png

12NAM is a good example of how the N energy can poss stay out of the way and allow the energy to develop a minor event

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/conus/vort500_z500/1671796800/1672099200-7A89R6gisZo.png

[heehaw453]

Agree sroc. I'm greedy and I want that good energy in that northern piece to drop in.  I think the only way that happens is if the ridge to the west stays intact.  Just slow down the PAC flow a tad and I think we could be in business.  It's usually the things the models don't show until closer in that deliver.  How many times have we seen that.

[sroc4]

Agree sroc. I'm greedy and I want that good energy in that northern piece to drop in.  I think the only way that happens is if the ridge to the west stays intact.  Just slow down the PAC flow a tad and I think we could be in business.  It's usually the things the models don't show until closer in that deliver.  How many times have we seen that.

Funny you say that. I literally was just thinking about how Im tired of these potential blockbusters showing up in the LR and fizzling out to nothing. A roller coaster ride of ups and downs only to get off the ride at the end ultimately disappointed and a bit of whiplash. Its the minor and mod events that kind of walk themselves into existence that are the meat and potatoes of a good season. The end result is kind of out there in the distance but its a slow path to get there.

[sroc4]

Agree sroc. I'm greedy and I want that good energy in that northern piece to drop in.  I think the only way that happens is if the ridge to the west stays intact.  Just slow down the PAC flow a tad and I think we could be in business.  It's usually the things the models don't show until closer in that deliver.  How many times have we seen that.

12z GFS getting closer

[heehaw453]

12Z GFS is moving in the right direction.  Confluence clearing out in Quebec and northern energy getting involved with through.  Yep.  Fast flow is the only concern.

[MattyICE]

Come on! Xmas eve 12z miracle coming tomorrow. I feel it. Qualitative analysis, not quantitative

[heehaw453]

Come on!  Xmas eve 12z miracle coming tomorrow. I feel it. Qualitative analysis, not quantitative

  not biting that hard just yet.  It won't take much though.

[nutleyblizzard]

Come on!  Xmas eve 12z miracle coming tomorrow. I feel it. Qualitative analysis, not quantitative

  not biting that hard just yet.  It won't take much though.

Trend is your friend. GEFS should be interesting.

[heehaw453]

Yeah.  Can't deny better interaction on the GEFS between the northern energy and the trough. It's not there yet, but definitely encouraged to see better model runs as we move closer.  Sure beats the alternative.

[amugs]

1st 10 days of Jan are toasted. Happens in Nina patterns. But if JMA model is correct a good pattern is setting up for the 2nd half.

[amugs]

Okay GFS maybe sniffing out the pattern in the LR. It has a habit of rushing the patterns but time will tell.

[frank 638]

Okay GFS maybe sniffing out the pattern in the LR. It has a habit of rushing the patterns but time will tell.

I was listening to joe rao and joe cioffi and they were thinking Jan 6 we will going into a cold and stormy pattern what are ur thoughts on this

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