February Obs & Discussions

38*with light sleet and rain

33 with moderate snow.

Sticking everywhere except the roads. Always nice to see but also Mother Nature just teasing and playing with me again.

Is there a sleet to snow ratio? At least the ground is a little white

Had a covering of ice on my car and spoty on roads this morning.

Then this afternoon I had .10" of sleet and snow mixed bag, totally unexpected but I'll take it.

What a gradient tomorrow temperature wise!!

Luckily I'll be in the 60s portion of that map. I'm looking to save all my cold air until Monday night.

Dropping into the 20's and near teens Saturday night. Do not be surprised to see a spotty snow shower N&W. Next threat for wintry weather/rain will come Monday afternoon. Thinking starts as snow N&W before changing to rain. Coastal sections may also start as snow, then mix then rain.

I think Tuesday's system is going to be really tough to get much of anything under Rt 80.  Not a fan of the transfer in time hoping the primary gives way and then hoping the secondary works magic.  Maybe with good ridging on the western flank it works better, but w/out that you depend purely on brick wall confluence to deflect a moving train.  Unfortunately we don't have brick wall confluence nor do we have deeply cold air mass.  If you're under Rt 80 I think 20% at best for getting 1" out of this. The further NE you go the better. Possibly E LI gets something if the storm intensifies as it goes towards 70W, but this just wreaks of poor performance in these parts.

Look at this CAD coming down on the east and the warm pushing right up against it.  Very interesting.  I'm at 60 and to my east like Newark NJ is in the low 40's.  Unreal.

Stuck at 38.1* here on the north shore of the island.

We were supposed to hit 60* where I work and where I live, but I don’t think it got above 50* at work. About 15 miles west at home got up to 55*. Not far west oh there 60*. Very tight Temp gradient across the state.

Had 3” with sleet in accumulations here in Albany. This is taken from my apartment earlier today:



Albany’s 2022-23 seasonal snow total is now at 27.8”. And there’s a chance here for perhaps a coating to an inch of snow this Saturday, then perhaps a bigger system for Monday night into Tuesday.

It was supposed to get into the 50°F’s here yesterday, but it topped out at 40°F with a wind chill in the high 30°F’s.  It was a very gray day here.

38 degrees with winds all night.Dropping into the 20's later today and possible snow showers Sunday.Then,miracle of miracles, a possible accumulation of snow more than a coating Mon-Tues.

Last night's Euro was close.  I want to see that ULL about 75-100 miles south in DE.  If that happens NYC/LI and certainly Hudson Valley in line for mod/sig snow. What I circled in the bottom pic are probably the keys to that. If the block fails then this is very minor snow event even for the LHV.

EPS surface lows latest 06Z run.  This is what I'm talking about.  If the ULL can go underneath us around DE it will force the mid-levels and surface L in a much more favorable area keeping columns colder for NYC, LI and interior.  It's a big IF, but it has been trending towards a more southerly track. The trajectory is almost due E too. That's indicative of 50/50 flattening out the heights. Anything in the inner oval is workable especially if the mid-level low starts to intensify.

BRRRR WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING!

Should say Tuesday!!

12Z GFS works for just about no one in this forum. That placement of the ULL will never render snow in these parts.  Again is right?  

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS works for just about no one in this forum. That placement of the ULL will never render snow in these parts.  Again is right?  

For comparison here is the 00z Euro.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/neng/vort500_z500/1677196800/1677574800-Mf7gtDE6Bm8.png

1) Trough is much flatter/progressive than the Euro
2) Strength of the vorticity and the position is weaker and over and N of LI vs euro is much stronger and passes south of LI
3) SOI was 1.49 this am.  As stated prev Id really like to see it remain negative at least through the weekend.  The more it trends positive the more likely the thumb that in the atmosphere pressing on the warm air push gets lifted.  
4) still 84+ hrs out AND main energy that is our storm comes ashore tomorrow afternoon into the overnighht so time for trends for better or worse. .

Agreed. But even the Euro still needs a 75 mile drop south of the ULL to see decent snowfall for most of the area.  It's within margin of error, but will need to start seeing some hits within the next day or two I think. Like I would want to see Euro get no worse obviously.

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS works for just about no one in this forum. That placement of the ULL will never render snow in these parts.  Again is right?  

For comparison here is the 00z Euro.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/neng/vort500_z500/1677196800/1677574800-Mf7gtDE6Bm8.png

1) Trough is much flatter/progressive than the Euro
2) Strength of the vorticity and the position is weaker and over and N of LI vs euro is much stronger and passes south of LI
3) SOI was 1.49 this am.  As stated prev Id really like to see it remain negative at least through the weekend.  The more it trends positive the more likely the thumb that in the atmosphere pressing on the warm air push gets lifted.  
4) still 84+ hrs out AND main energy that is our storm comes ashore tomorrow afternoon into the overnight so time for trends for better or worse. .

Agreed. But even the Euro still needs a 75 mile drop south of the ULL to see decent snowfall for most of the area.  It's within margin of error, but will need to start seeing some hits within the next day or two I think. Like I would want to see Euro get no worse obviously.

Well 12z wasn't too horrible.

That's what I'm talking about as that's the 75 mile drop I wanted to see! If it's not done trending south we will be in good shape. The difference IMO is the ridge being just a big more pumped up on the western flank to let the ULL dig just a bit more. There's only so far south this thing can go with SER so I'm skeptical until we get more consistency.

Bettercofluence from the block pressing eastward too. This is a nice look from CNJ N

Maybe Euro is just overdoing it, but I tend not to think so.  Other ensembles have shifted south too.  The whole thing comes to down to the ULL passing south.  Any slowing down of its movement or injection of energy into it as it approaches the coast then all bets would be off with this.

We've been talking about Saturday light snow. NAM keeps precip south, but I'm not convinced of that.  I think c-1" for a lot of folks is possible.