February Obs & Discussions
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nutleyblizzard
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
Maybe Euro is just overdoing it, but I tend not to think so. Other ensembles have shifted south too. The whole thing comes to down to the ULL passing south. Any slowing down of its movement or injection of energy into it as it approaches the coast then all bets would be off with this.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement. A hair lower. See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement. A hair lower. See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.
At 500mb its more like 135-150 miles apart with the base of the trough and the vort max. Truth is almost always in the middle.
![February Obs & Discussions - Page 8 1677574800-COHaSSFJlTs](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/vort500_z500/1677261600/1677574800-COHaSSFJlTs.png)
![February Obs & Discussions - Page 8 1677574800-jhav3tWlKe4](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/ne/vort500_z500/1677240000/1677574800-jhav3tWlKe4.png)
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
I don't think either one right now is truth. Truth be told. My guess tomorrow we will start to see it though.sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement. A hair lower. See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.
At 500mb its more like 135-150 miles apart with the base of the trough and the vort max. Truth is almost always in the middle.
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
heehaw453 wrote:I don't think either one right now is truth. Truth be told. My guess tomorrow we will start to see it though.sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement. A hair lower. See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.
At 500mb its more like 135-150 miles apart with the base of the trough and the vort max. Truth is almost always in the middle.
Agreed. I was already watching the strength of the ULL coming onshore tomorrow trending stronger on the 18z NAM. So with that in mind additional changes are expected like you said
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
If this ULL stays around DE I think this is a moderate/sig event for North CNJ/NYC/LI and interior. Look at the temp contrast here. Going to be dynamic IMO for a period of time. It all depends on where the ULL goes. My gut tells me more southerly due to it wanting to follow the warmer path and not colder one.
![February Obs & Discussions - Page 8 Coldai10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/coldai10.png)
![February Obs & Discussions - Page 8 Coldai10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/coldai10.png)
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
Trends are our friends
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
Euro looks colder, more confluence over NE and presses more. Nice trends over the past couple of days runs.
Get this showing tomorrow runs as well please.
Get this showing tomorrow runs as well please.
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
22 degrees.Fine, powdery light snow for an hour, ground getting coated.Calm winds.
NWS says 3 to 5 Mon nite-Tues am.My poor snow plow guy can buy the baby new shoes if it happens.
NWS says 3 to 5 Mon nite-Tues am.My poor snow plow guy can buy the baby new shoes if it happens.
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
Right now it looks like the Euro is most favorable for a snow event Monday night, the GFS least favorable and the NAM somewhere in the middle. This is about the time to start looking more at the NAM anyway so interested to see how that evolves today.
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
Moderate snow now, approaching 3/4 inch.20 degrees calm winds.Nice to see a cold day with steady snow.
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
And the roads are slippery. Around here cars are slipping and going off the road. There is a hill outside our driveway and cars can’t go up. I sometimes have to go up in reverse
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
23* moderate snow, finally looks like winter with everything covered
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
Last edited by 1190ftalt on Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
28* and Cloudy here. No snow yet. Some snow showing on the radar here but must be mostly virga. Would be nice to see some of it reach the ground before the day is out.
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
EURO comes in colder for Monday night Tuesday morning storm. 6-8’’ for NYC metro!
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Re: February Obs & Discussions
First thing let's hope this ULL stays underneath us. Second to get sig snow out of this it's going to have to stay underneath and be a bit stronger s/w as it hits the coast. Some kind of injection of energy at that time would slow it down and bring in heavier rates.
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