February Obs & Discussions

Maybe Euro is just overdoing it, but I tend not to think so.  Other ensembles have shifted south too.  The whole thing comes to down to the ULL passing south.  Any slowing down of its movement or injection of energy into it as it approaches the coast then all bets would be off with this.

We've been talking about Saturday light snow. NAM keeps precip south, but I'm not convinced of that.  I think c-1" for a lot of folks is possible.

18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement.  A hair lower.  See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.

heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement.  A hair lower.  See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.

At 500mb its more like 135-150 miles apart with the base of the trough and the vort max. Truth is almost always in the middle.

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement.  A hair lower.  See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.

At 500mb its more like 135-150 miles apart with the base of the trough and the vort max.  Truth is almost always in the middle.

I don't think either one right now is truth.  Truth be told. My guess tomorrow we will start to see it though.

heehaw453 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z GFS still being stubborn on the Tuesday ULL placement.  A hair lower.  See what the GEFS says in a bit. Euro/GFS are not far off from each other but 75-100 miles is going to make a big difference for some.

At 500mb its more like 135-150 miles apart with the base of the trough and the vort max.  Truth is almost always in the middle.

I don't think either one right now is truth.  Truth be told. My guess tomorrow we will start to see it though.

Agreed. I was already watching the strength of the ULL coming onshore tomorrow trending stronger on the 18z NAM. So with that in mind additional changes are expected like you said

If this ULL stays around DE I think this is a moderate/sig event for North CNJ/NYC/LI and interior.  Look at the temp contrast here.  Going to be dynamic IMO for a period of time. It all depends on where the ULL goes. My gut tells me more southerly due to it wanting to follow the warmer path and not colder one.

Phase 8 and no spring fa you!!! Those who embrace warmth in the winter.... embrace the cold that was to be then for it is upcoming. Argghh.

Trends are our friends

Well, Jersey Shore, it ain't much, but it is coming our way! Mood flake Saturday- I'll take it!

12k Nam


3k Nam


RGEM

Give me this 850mb L placement as per the 06Z Euro and let the chips fall where they may.

Euro looks colder,  more confluence over NE and presses more. Nice trends over the past couple of days runs.
Get this showing tomorrow runs as well please.

Yeah Mugs.  This is a sig bump south on the means at 06Z Euro.  

heehaw453 wrote:Yeah Mugs.  This is a sig bump south on the means at 06Z Euro.  

Well that's a nice look

22 degrees.Fine, powdery light snow for an hour, ground getting coated.Calm winds.
NWS says 3 to 5 Mon nite-Tues am.My poor snow plow guy can buy the baby new shoes if it happens.

Snowing moderately, 20 degrees, ground covered

Right now it looks like the Euro is most favorable for a snow event Monday night, the GFS least favorable and the NAM somewhere in the middle. This is about the time to start looking more at the NAM anyway so interested to see how that evolves today.

12z GFS nudged south again

Moderate snow now, approaching 3/4 inch.20 degrees calm winds.Nice to see a cold day with steady snow.

And the roads are slippery. Around here cars are slipping and going off the road. There is a hill outside our driveway and cars can’t go up. I sometimes have to go up in reverse

23* moderate snow, finally looks like winter with everything covered

Snowmore, it stopped!

28* and Cloudy here. No snow yet. Some snow showing on the radar here but must be mostly virga. Would be nice to see some of it reach the ground before the day is out.

EURO comes in colder for Monday night Tuesday morning storm. 6-8’’ for NYC metro!

First thing let's hope this ULL stays underneath us.  Second to get sig snow out of this it's going to have to stay underneath and be a bit stronger s/w as it hits the coast.  Some kind of injection of energy at that time would slow it down and bring in heavier rates.

Euro maybe wrong, but this depiction is showing a block that means business and is bullying the L pressure. If this is right this is more white than wet from Trenton on northward.