September Obs & Discussions
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
What are your thoughts for potential wind impacts up this way (NJ and NYC metro), with the saturation you mentioned it wouldn't take much to cause some uprooting, even 40-50mph winds would be problematic, not so much if we had been dry. Do you have a updated gust map for wxbell, or anyone else? Htas a lot rain, I actually am getting thoughts of Ida rains from the way the CMC looks. ugg, I'm not sure which is worse wind damage or that kind of flooding, id say flooding.amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Right now WPC has the entire east coast from carolinas to cape cod at slight risk of excessive rainfall, i think that goes much higher.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
It paints a fine picture lol, thanks. Wonder if we do get Ophelia, NHC does have it progged to go fully tropical so we should, probably tonight if not tomorrow morning. I do see some signs of wrapping in and possible beginnings of what could be a decently long RI.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Sounds good, so you thinking we see that cone shift east off shore and a N to NNE movement? rather than that hook left correct?rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
This is a very crude approximation, but here’s my general idea on a track:
It may not get that far north, though. As I said, I think it gets to about the latitude of Sandy Hook, then turns out. But it’s close.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
00z hurricane models shifted about 75 miles east from 18z. One more shift like that and they’ll be in line with me. Even 40-50 miles and I’ll be in good shape with respect to the ideas presented earlier. Time will tell, but I don’t like this storm.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.
100% mugsy, I’m with ya brother. The bolded part is exactly what I’m worried about, and I think my approximated track forecast shows that.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.
100% mugsy, I’m with ya brother. The bolded part is exactly what I’m worried about, and I think my approximated track forecast shows that.
East side of cone and it's massive game on problems for VA Beach to LI. Tropical Storm watches should go up for Caoe May and Atlantic Counties IMO. My freind in Beach Haven West said I thought it was going to be rainy and windy......I said start preparations. He lives right on the bay....ugghhh.
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 7 F6lo_b10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f12/18/55/44/55/f6lo_b10.jpg)
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.
100% mugsy, I’m with ya brother. The bolded part is exactly what I’m worried about, and I think my approximated track forecast shows that.
East side of cone and it's massive game on problems for VA Beach to LI. Tropical Storm watches should go up for Caoe May and Atlantic Counties IMO. My freind in Beach Haven West said I thought it was going to be rainy and windy......I said start preparations. He lives right on the bay....ugghhh.
I’m about six miles to his southeast…my gym equipment is getting lifted tomorrow night after work and the vehicles are getting moved up the block to higher ground. The last time I played flood roulette, I lost aha
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.
100% mugsy, I’m with ya brother. The bolded part is exactly what I’m worried about, and I think my approximated track forecast shows that.
East side of cone and it's massive game on problems for VA Beach to LI. Tropical Storm watches should go up for Caoe May and Atlantic Counties IMO. My freind in Beach Haven West said I thought it was going to be rainy and windy......I said start preparations. He lives right on the bay....ugghhh.
I’m about six miles to his southeast…my gym equipment is getting lifted tomorrow night after work and the vehicles are getting moved up the block to higher ground. The last time I played flood roulette, I lost aha
New Gretna??
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Beach Haven, LBI lol
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
It looks to me like we are starting to vertically align the lower-level circulation with the mid-level and upper-level circulations. If that’s the case, I think we will see this thing start to ramp up pretty quickly. Keep in mind, this is drawing off both tropical and non-tropical processes, and when those processes work harmoniously, pressures can drop very quickly.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
What i miss? See the cone has a bit more of it offshore and ill have look at those cane models rb. Is it go b confined to the very shores? Or will the impscts reach inland? Im.confused cyz it seems like ur msinly talk bout the icean impacts. What about the urban rain snd potential wind impacts. My area gets major flash floods right down block. And our trees suck. Very short rooted.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Just over a week ago cars were floating on the saw mill parkway before the split to henry hudson or bronx. And power was out likely due to tree down somewhere. And that was a quick 15 min storm...i have pics ill post at some pt.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:What i miss? See the cone has a bit more of it offshore and ill have look at those cane models rb. Is it go b confined to the very shores? Or will the impscts reach inland? Im.confused cyz it seems like ur msinly talk bout the icean impacts. What about the urban rain snd potential wind impacts. My area gets major flash floods right down block. And our trees suck. Very short rooted.
The impacts will be worst at the coast, but there will still be wind and flooding from heavy rainfall inland, just like they usually are.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
What did you lose in your last flood roulette? I am curious how did you see the 00z cane models? TT only has 18z out, i realized after trying to figure out what east shift you were talking about lolrb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:What i miss? See the cone has a bit more of it offshore and ill have look at those cane models rb. Is it go b confined to the very shores? Or will the impscts reach inland? Im.confused cyz it seems like ur msinly talk bout the icean impacts. What about the urban rain snd potential wind impacts. My area gets major flash floods right down block. And our trees suck. Very short rooted.
The impacts will be worst at the coast, but there will still be wind and flooding from heavy rainfall inland, just like they usually are.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Everything in our garage was under 6” of bay water, and I spent over a month emptying the garage, washing it down, drying it, and then washing everything that I could wash with soapy water, including all of my gym equipment.
That was the February 2021 nor’easter that snowed for three straight days at my parents’ house and they got well over 40” of snow from. So I lost twice - I missed the biggest snow storm of my life and had our garage flood in the process aha I’m still sour about that lol
That was the February 2021 nor’easter that snowed for three straight days at my parents’ house and they got well over 40” of snow from. So I lost twice - I missed the biggest snow storm of my life and had our garage flood in the process aha I’m still sour about that lol
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
I am so sorry that suxs mega! Yes best to be safe than sorry. I will have to move my car tomorrow as our bridge across from my building which goes over the saw mill parkway as odd as this sounds floods with a good 2 ft water on top, yes on top. And even worse below.rb924119 wrote:Everything in our garage was under 6” of bay water, and I spent over a month emptying the garage, washing it down, drying it, and then washing everything that I could wash with soapy water, including all of my gym equipment.
That was the February 2021 nor’easter that snowed for three straight days at my parents’ house and they got well over 40” of snow from. So I lost twice - I missed the biggest snow storm of my life and had our garage flood in the process aha I’m still sour about that lol
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:I am so sorry that suxs mega! Yes best to be safe than sorry. I will have to move my car tomorrow as our bridge across from my building which goes over the saw mill parkway as odd as this sounds floods with a good 2 ft water on top, yes on top. And even worse below.rb924119 wrote:Everything in our garage was under 6” of bay water, and I spent over a month emptying the garage, washing it down, drying it, and then washing everything that I could wash with soapy water, including all of my gym equipment.
That was the February 2021 nor’easter that snowed for three straight days at my parents’ house and they got well over 40” of snow from. So I lost twice - I missed the biggest snow storm of my life and had our garage flood in the process aha I’m still sour about that lol
It’s not like it was your fault lol but yeah, I learned my lesson for sure haha and dang, man, that’s crazy. I thought bridges were supposed to go over waterways, not through them….? Haha
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
The bridge is way above the parkway, it has two small drains that are always clogged with garbage. When it pours it fills up fast i think it kinda has a bit of a dip in the middle thats not notable unless you see it flooded, let me see if i can find a pic.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I am so sorry that suxs mega! Yes best to be safe than sorry. I will have to move my car tomorrow as our bridge across from my building which goes over the saw mill parkway as odd as this sounds floods with a good 2 ft water on top, yes on top. And even worse below.rb924119 wrote:Everything in our garage was under 6” of bay water, and I spent over a month emptying the garage, washing it down, drying it, and then washing everything that I could wash with soapy water, including all of my gym equipment.
That was the February 2021 nor’easter that snowed for three straight days at my parents’ house and they got well over 40” of snow from. So I lost twice - I missed the biggest snow storm of my life and had our garage flood in the process aha I’m still sour about that lol
It’s not like it was your fault lol but yeah, I learned my lesson for sure haha and dang, man, that’s crazy. I thought bridges were supposed to go over waterways, not through them….? Haha
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
As the 00z runs come in, the two things I’m noticing are:
1. The Canadian trough diving southeastward is a bit faster than previous runs
2. The ridge across the Mississippi River Valley is notably stronger in successive runs. These are both trends that I expected to see as lead time decreases.
As a result of the above, this suggests to me that the ideas presented for a more easterly (and problematic track) are certainly on the table, and with the adjustments of these features, even though there hasn’t been a marked shift east in the storm track on models like the ICON, NAM suite, or GFS, I expect them to adjust accordingly. The GEM suite, however, has shifted east and now aligns with my forecast track perfectly. Additionally, it also matches my thinking of a stronger storm further north. As mugs has been noting, GEM products have been outperforming all other guidance recently, and this suite has been steadfast in this type of evolution over the last several days. This gives me further confidence that I may be on the right track.
Lastly, it appears that we are starting to get convection around the circulations now, and to my eye, it does look a bit further east than where it was supposed to be. It could be an optical illusion, but it would fit with my thinking that the circulations would end up further east than guidance was suggesting due to the nature of the development process. We’ll see how things evolve over the next 24 hours.
1. The Canadian trough diving southeastward is a bit faster than previous runs
2. The ridge across the Mississippi River Valley is notably stronger in successive runs. These are both trends that I expected to see as lead time decreases.
As a result of the above, this suggests to me that the ideas presented for a more easterly (and problematic track) are certainly on the table, and with the adjustments of these features, even though there hasn’t been a marked shift east in the storm track on models like the ICON, NAM suite, or GFS, I expect them to adjust accordingly. The GEM suite, however, has shifted east and now aligns with my forecast track perfectly. Additionally, it also matches my thinking of a stronger storm further north. As mugs has been noting, GEM products have been outperforming all other guidance recently, and this suite has been steadfast in this type of evolution over the last several days. This gives me further confidence that I may be on the right track.
Lastly, it appears that we are starting to get convection around the circulations now, and to my eye, it does look a bit further east than where it was supposed to be. It could be an optical illusion, but it would fit with my thinking that the circulations would end up further east than guidance was suggesting due to the nature of the development process. We’ll see how things evolve over the next 24 hours.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Great work by rb, Doc, Mugs and J man on this tropical system!
Calm before the storm right now, 46 degrees, fair and calm wind.NWS has a deluge for us up here, not too good as the ground cannot absorb very much and I expect flooding around here.
Calm before the storm right now, 46 degrees, fair and calm wind.NWS has a deluge for us up here, not too good as the ground cannot absorb very much and I expect flooding around here.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
wow cmc is bad for all on the board. And ya ray thats your track! of course worst on coast and that rain band that shows up wow. 3 ro near 5 incheas rain areawide. I would expect ts warnings to go up for all on coast and just inland including nyc and suburbs today if this track becomes more likely. There is high surf advisory for LI 7 to 11 ft waves wow. May have take trip down there, prolly not though. I can def see on sattelite the storm looking more like a ts now. May not be far off. May even become opheilia.rb924119 wrote:As the 00z runs come in, the two things I’m noticing are:
1. The Canadian trough diving southeastward is a bit faster than previous runs
2. The ridge across the Mississippi River Valley is notably stronger in successive runs. These are both trends that I expected to see as lead time decreases.
As a result of the above, this suggests to me that the ideas presented for a more easterly (and problematic track) are certainly on the table, and with the adjustments of these features, even though there hasn’t been a marked shift east in the storm track on models like the ICON, NAM suite, or GFS, I expect them to adjust accordingly. The GEM suite, however, has shifted east and now aligns with my forecast track perfectly. Additionally, it also matches my thinking of a stronger storm further north. As mugs has been noting, GEM products have been outperforming all other guidance recently, and this suite has been steadfast in this type of evolution over the last several days. This gives me further confidence that I may be on the right track.
Lastly, it appears that we are starting to get convection around the circulations now, and to my eye, it does look a bit further east than where it was supposed to be. It could be an optical illusion, but it would fit with my thinking that the circulations would end up further east than guidance was suggesting due to the nature of the development process. We’ll see how things evolve over the next 24 hours.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
Definitely appears that we are getting a defined circulation now centered within convection, and to me, it looks significantly further east than where it was supposed to be with a nearly due north movement, though it may be a little west of north. Regardless, it needs to take a hard left turn to get back in alignment with guidance, but I don’t see that happening with how things look at the moment.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
I’m looking at infrared imagery, Scott. The reason being is that it’s been my contention that models have been too far west with where the mid-level circulations would coalesce and organize, which has implications on the overall steering. Now that we are seeing the convection organize pretty rapidly, it should also start inducing pressure falls along with it and start working to coalesce the low-level circulation with the mid-levels.
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 7 Img_1815](https://i.servimg.com/u/f11/19/13/02/84/img_1815.jpg)
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 7 Img_1814](https://i.servimg.com/u/f11/19/13/02/84/img_1814.jpg)
The locations are outlined in green, for reference.
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Re: September Obs & Discussions
So basically it is going to completely change its location? Then why does the NHC not know or show this? Not to knock your idea but aren't they supposed to be the be all end all expects (lol, they change a million times kinda kidding). I have heard of systems developing a new COC when forming thats why often tracks change once they have developed. You could be onto somrthing will be interesting if this actually happens, will def be a game changer.rb924119 wrote:
I’m looking at infrared imagery, Scott. The reason being is that it’s been my contention that models have been too far west with where the mid-level circulations would coalesce and organize, which has implications on the overall steering. Now that we are seeing the convection organize pretty rapidly, it should also start inducing pressure falls along with it and start working to coalesce the low-level circulation with the mid-levels.
The locations are outlined in green, for reference.
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