September Obs & Discussions

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't l
ook good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

Sounds good, so you thinking we see that cone shift east off shore and a N to NNE movement? rather than that hook left correct?

This is a very crude approximation, but here’s my general idea on a track:



It may not get that far north, though. As I said, I think it gets to about the latitude of Sandy Hook, then turns out. But it’s close.

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't l
ook good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.

100% mugsy, I’m with ya brother. The bolded part is exactly what I’m worried about, and I think my approximated track forecast shows that.

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't l
ook good for it. Hang in through it.

I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.

GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.

100% mugsy, I’m with ya brother. The bolded part is exactly what I’m worried about, and I think my approximated track forecast shows that.

East side of cone and it's massive game on problems for VA Beach to LI. Tropical Storm watches should go up for Caoe May and Atlantic Counties IMO. My freind in Beach Haven West said I thought it was going to be rainy and windy......I said start preparations.  He lives right on the bay....ugghhh.

I’m about six miles to his southeast…my gym equipment is getting lifted tomorrow night after work and the vehicles are getting moved up the block to higher ground. The last time I played flood roulette, I lost aha

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What i miss? See the cone has a bit more of it offshore and ill have look at those cane models rb. Is it go b confined to the very shores? Or will the impscts reach inland? Im.confused cyz it seems like ur msinly talk bout the icean impacts. What about the urban rain snd potential wind impacts. My area gets major flash floods right down block. And our trees suck. Very short rooted.

The impacts will be worst at the coast, but there will still be wind and flooding from heavy rainfall inland, just like they usually are.

rb924119 wrote:Everything in our garage was under 6” of bay water, and I spent over a month emptying the garage, washing it down, drying it, and then washing everything that I could wash with soapy water, including all of my gym equipment.

That was the February 2021 nor’easter that snowed for three straight days at my parents’ house and they got well over 40” of snow from. So I lost twice - I missed the biggest snow storm of my life and had our garage flood in the process aha I’m still sour about that lol

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Everything in our garage was under 6” of bay water, and I spent over a month emptying the garage, washing it down, drying it, and then washing everything that I could wash with soapy water, including all of my gym equipment.

That was the February 2021 nor’easter that snowed for three straight days at my parents’ house and they got well over 40” of snow from. So I lost twice - I missed the biggest snow storm of my life and had our garage flood in the process aha I’m still sour about that lol

I am so sorry that suxs mega! Yes best to be safe than sorry. I will have to move my car tomorrow as our bridge across from my building which goes over the saw mill parkway as odd as this sounds floods with a good 2 ft water on top, yes on top. And even worse below.

It’s not like it was your fault lol but yeah, I learned my lesson for sure haha and dang, man, that’s crazy. I thought bridges were supposed to go over waterways, not through them….? Haha

rb924119 wrote:As the 00z runs come in, the two things I’m noticing are:

1. The Canadian trough diving southeastward is a bit faster than previous runs

2. The ridge across the Mississippi River Valley is notably stronger in successive runs. These are both trends that I expected to see as lead time decreases.

As a result of the above, this suggests to me that the ideas presented for a more easterly (and problematic track) are certainly on the table, and with the adjustments of these features, even though there hasn’t been a marked shift east in the storm track on models like the ICON, NAM suite, or GFS, I expect them to adjust accordingly. The GEM suite, however, has shifted east and now aligns with my forecast track perfectly. Additionally, it also matches my thinking of a stronger storm further north. As mugs has been noting, GEM products have been outperforming all other guidance recently, and this suite has been steadfast in this type of evolution over the last several days. This gives me further confidence that I may be on the right track.

Lastly, it appears that we are starting to get convection around the circulations now, and to my eye, it does look a bit further east than where it was supposed to be. It could be an optical illusion, but it would fit with my thinking that the circulations would end up further east than guidance was suggesting due to the nature of the development process. We’ll see how things evolve over the next 24 hours.

rb924119 wrote:Approximate location of where I think the center of circulation is superimposed on the NHC track to represent where it should be:




I followed up with my approximate track, and so far, they align well, in my opinion, if you use geographical landmarks for reference.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Approximate location of where I think the center of circulation is superimposed on the NHC track to represent where it should be:




I followed up with my approximate track, and so far, they align well, in my opinion, if you use geographical landmarks for reference.

Not sure about the lat but looks like you have Long east of 75W.  Current visible sat suggests enter of LLC is west of 75W by my eye

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso2&product=vis

I’m looking at infrared imagery, Scott. The reason being is that it’s been my contention that models have been too far west with where the mid-level circulations would coalesce and organize, which has implications on the overall steering. Now that we are seeing the convection organize pretty rapidly, it should also start inducing pressure falls along with it and start working to coalesce the low-level circulation with the mid-levels.




The locations are outlined in green, for reference.