September Obs & Discussions
+19
Grselig
dsix85
rb924119
sroc4
Math23x7
aiannone
kalleg
phil155
Bkdude
jmanley32
Frank_Wx
frank 638
billg315
GreyBeard
dkodgis
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
docstox12
amugs
23 posters
Page 6 of 15
Page 6 of 15 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 10 ... 15
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Named potential TS 16, weird. TS warnings up for carolinas to maryland, shows a weakening depression once up our way but as ray stated this has potential, especially if it stays over water.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Join date : 2013-12-12
rb924119 likes this post
Re: September Obs & Discussions
So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.
I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Join date : 2013-12-12
rb924119 likes this post
Re: September Obs & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.
I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.
I think that’s a little low, but overall a fair approximation for now
![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6995
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Well I mean for NYC and southern westchester, check out the 12z 3km NAM on pt with ur analysis exact stilla NC hit but dayumm on intensity, grated its the 3km pretty far out. JB of course posted the 925 mb winds which are well over 100mph...rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.
I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.
I think that’s a little low, but overall a fair approximation for now
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Well I mean for NYC and southern westchester, but not if 12z 3KM NAM verified wow. check out the 12z 3km NAM on pt with ur analysis in terms of becoming a hurricane except stilla NC hit but dayumm on intensity, granted its the 3km pretty far out which is known to spit out crazy solutions. JB of course posted the 925 mb winds which are well over 100mph...and 50-75 all the way into central midaltantic well inland.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:So not so much in the general NYC area, I imagine winds will still be moderate, JB posted wind map showing gusts 35-45 mph around here, and that could change up or down depending on track. See my post above or go to NHC to see their thoughts as cones etc are up.rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Been busy haven't had time to look (just did, lots blossoming t-storms but i cant make out any kind of COC, do you have a good satellite you are looking at? Looks like a mess to my naked eye. I had a hard workout at physical therapy this morning and working on E-bay stuff before heading to my real job. Man you need some rest 3am all for us! Your a champ. Do you think there is the potential for the tri-state to see damaging winds? I know leaves add to the trouble and so does weak group. I got my flashlights just in case.rb924119 wrote:Ohh, it’s already organizing in my opinion. Recent satellite imagery is pretty impressive already. We saw how quickly Franklin went to a category 4 from a 1, and I expect a similar intensification process with this, just on the lower end of the spectrum. I think by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a pretty organized and decently strong storm.
I can certainly see Long and points south, especially on the coast, but even inland too getting some strong wind from this, and expect it. Certainly with the first surge. Whether or not we get the second surge with the storm itself, I think we do, but the models generally say not it’s not as bad.
I think that’s a little low, but overall a fair approximation for now
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Everyone is quick to dismiss the Euro as a shell of itself. Im not so sure we should do that until perhaps Saturday. It may be off but it conts to slowly walk itself to the soln. It conts to be one of the most consistent and reliable when it comes to honing in on a soln. Other models have a much higher tendency to have much larger changes from run to run. Lets just see how this plays out first before we jump to conclusions. Just saying.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: September Obs & Discussions
We go move this to tropics thread since its yechnically now a system on nhc? Scott ur right ladt nights euro did come west and gives 2 plus inches rain.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Well now:
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 6 F6jyoEaWsAAs9-Y?format=png&name=900x900](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6jyoEaWsAAs9-Y?format=png&name=900x900)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: September Obs & Discussions
GFS Ensemble says “go home, Ray, you’re drunk” lol mean is over eastern NC, but it’s got a southwest lean. Good for us, as it would be weaker by the time it gets here, bad for my forecast.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6995
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: September Obs & Discussions
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: September Obs & Discussions
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: September Obs & Discussions
CMC says get out the ark peeps:
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 6 F6j_EM0XYAcLi7M?format=webp&name=900x900](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6j_EM0XYAcLi7M?format=webp&name=900x900)
It has been steadfast on this solution and has not wavered except for one run. GFS and EURO have up been up, down and all around!!
It has been steadfast on this solution and has not wavered except for one run. GFS and EURO have up been up, down and all around!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: September Obs & Discussions
CMC = Canadian Model again holds serve - Momma Mia rain from Friday late night thorugh Monday afternoon
CMC holds serve at 12Z pic.twitter.com/gve6yk1HVU
— Al Mugno (@MugnoaAl) September 21, 2023
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
It would be amazing if the CMC is the one to win this, the CMC does not usually win over the GFS and Euro, but ya mugs it has been steadfast.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Its becoming quite clear this is coming in two waves if you will. Unfort Im posting from work so it will be hard to discuss nuance. But there is an initial wave of PVA (positive vorticity advection), that moves north into the area ahead N&E of the main circulation. This gives us the first wave of precip beginning early Saturday into early to maybe mid Sat afternoon. But this area appears to get sheared out as it reaches our lat by the aforementioned area of confluence developing. Result is what appears to be the precip shield vanish. Thge second round comes with the main LP center tracks north and then turn's NE. If it ends up south of LI vs N of LI the amount f precip changes.
Euro and GFS seem to be coming to this conclusion. Wind impacts I have not looked at
Euro and GFS seem to be coming to this conclusion. Wind impacts I have not looked at
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
rb924119 likes this post
Re: September Obs & Discussions
EURO comes back
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Qpf_acc-imp.us_ne](https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023092112/096/qpf_acc-imp.us_ne.png)
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Qpf_acc-imp.us_ne](https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023092112/096/qpf_acc-imp.us_ne.png)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
kalleg, rb924119 and jmanley32 like this post
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6995
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Sounds good, so you thinking we see that cone shift east off shore and a N to NNE movement? rather than that hook left correct?rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:Sounds good, so you thinking we see that cone shift east off shore and a N to NNE movement? rather than that hook left correct?rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
This is a very crude approximation, but here’s my general idea on a track:
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Img_1811](https://i.servimg.com/u/f11/19/13/02/84/img_1811.jpg)
It may not get that far north, though. As I said, I think it gets to about the latitude of Sandy Hook, then turns out. But it’s close.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6995
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Given the warm water this will traverse as it develops toward the NC coast, I would certainly not be surprised to see rapid strengthening. This time of year storms always seem to rapidly intensify as they hit the warm water right off the SE coast. This one is actually developing in that warm water.
Another factor to consider as it seems almost certain that this area will get substantial rainfall no matter how this tracks, we have gotten significant rainfall in this region since Sept. 1, so waterways are running high and the ground is pretty saturated. I think the local flooding threat is pretty significant (not to mention the coastal flooding threat at high tide).
Another factor to consider as it seems almost certain that this area will get substantial rainfall no matter how this tracks, we have gotten significant rainfall in this region since Sept. 1, so waterways are running high and the ground is pretty saturated. I think the local flooding threat is pretty significant (not to mention the coastal flooding threat at high tide).
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4511
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
docstox12, kalleg and weatherwatchermom like this post
Re: September Obs & Discussions
I'm hoping this storm doesn't overperform too much on the rain side like Ida; we all know how that turned out around here.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4511
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: September Obs & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.
![September Obs & Discussions - Page 6 F6lp_z10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f12/18/55/44/55/f6lp_z10.jpg)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: September Obs & Discussions
What are your thoughts for potential wind impacts up this way (NJ and NYC metro), with the saturation you mentioned it wouldn't take much to cause some uprooting, even 40-50mph winds would be problematic, not so much if we had been dry. Do you have a updated gust map for wxbell, or anyone else? Htas a lot rain, I actually am getting thoughts of Ida rains from the way the CMC looks. ugg, I'm not sure which is worse wind damage or that kind of flooding, id say flooding.amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Looks like this may be nothing more than a rainstorm for us even in NJ. Thats what I was originally expecting anyways, but we shall see, Ray I am still watching for your forecast keep us posted, i saw u said earlier models don't look good for it. Hang in through it.
I only said that about the GFS Ensemble lol the EURO Suite made some marked changes toward my ideas, the GEM Suite held serve and is closed to my ideas, and it has definitely been the most consistent suite and definitely outperformed on Lee. I holding my ground for now, absolutely. And from what I’m seeing on water vapor imagery, it appears* at this early juncture that I might be on the right track. But it’s early in the game yet.
GEM/CMC aka Canadian againg since its super computer upgrade has been on fire nailing storms as of late...Lee, Mondays washout and I will say this. It will RI to a CAT 1. If it traverses to say OCEAN CITy MD and then cuts in DE, CNJ shore and Chesapeake Bay regions get walloped.if it cuts in over NC VA border up to DE gets the extent with SNJ taking a blow. Time will tell.
GEM won't back down peeps showing 3-4.5" of rains area wide. NG.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: September Obs & Discussions
Right now WPC has the entire east coast from carolinas to cape cod at slight risk of excessive rainfall, i think that goes much higher.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Page 6 of 15 • 1 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 10 ... 15
Page 6 of 15
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|