December 2023 Observations and Discussion
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brownie
1190ftalt
phil155
frank 638
algae888
deadrabbit79
Frank_Wx
mikeypizano
crippo84
billg315
weatherwatchermom
rb924119
kalleg
jmanley32
SENJsnowman
Dunnzoo
docstox12
dkodgis
aiannone
sroc4
amugs
heehaw453
26 posters
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
53*, rain for the last few hours, but not really much, about quarter of an inch so far. Just ick.
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Can I get one flake?
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Dunnzoo likes this post
Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
WOW, this thing really fell apart on the NAM lol if somebody could post the three-run trend at H5 from 00z to 18z today, it’s pretty apparent. What a horrible performance. And really, as Scott pointed out earlier, that goes for all guidance.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Snowflakes. Infinite diversity in infinite proportions.
Beautiful.
Beautiful.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
High 50's a few hrs ago when I was out car said 57 and heavy rain non-stop. No wind, but I don't think that kicks in (if it does at all this far west) until tonight. As we know winds usually underperform anyways.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
It looks like that is Monmouth county and NE. It will be very interesting to see the evolution of this system and where the convective bands of heaviest rain set up
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Looks like some heavier rain is starting to make it way in from the south west
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Winds starting 18-20 mphs and raining again we had a lull for a bit
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
A few hrs ago winds were nearly calm per nearby weather station now 15mph gusting to 20mph. No big deal but it is certainly a increase. Very heavy rain moving into my area, though CT has the higest potention for flooding with 6+ amounts they have almost no rain right now, I guess as the LP moves up it will obviously shift east but carry much heavier precipitation with it?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
I’ve got a band on the run over my house. More rain now but just rain. Nothing to write home about. 51. Wind at 5 mph now and gusts of 10
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Here dunzoo, update from WPC not through your house anymore much farther west. Discussion below.
![December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Mcd11910](https://i.servimg.com/u/f53/18/65/60/45/mcd11910.gif)
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 110147Z - 110747Z
Summary...A brief lull in the flash flood threat exists in the
short term, but additional heavy rainfall over the Mid-Atlantic
will move into the discussion area and pose a risk of flash
flooding - especially in urbanized areas.
Discussion...The flash flood threat continues across the
discussion area. A brief lull in rainfall has occurred over the
past hour or so, with the heaviest rain rates confined to much of
New Jersey and areas to the south and west. An extensive warm
conveyor remains in place across the region, which was maintaining
anomalous instability (500 J/kg MUCAPE) and moisture (1.3-1.4 inch
PW values), while weak/subtle shortwaves aloft have helped to
focus convective development. The complex across New Jersey and
points southwest have generally resulted in 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain
rates and spots of 1.5-2 inch totals in a three-hour period.
These rates will result in an increasing flash flood risk tonight
as heavier rain reaches southern New England - especially given
the antecedent rainfall and wet soils across the region.
There is some concern that even heavier rates may materialize
across the region in the 03-06Z timeframe. A cold front currently
over eastern Pennsylvania and central Maryland was approaching and
should slowly traverse the discussion area from west to east
through the night. Meanwhile, low-level wind fields are expected
to increase dramatically. The resulting increase in low-level
convergence and marginal buoyancy should continue to support heavy
rainfall, and some models suggest potential for 2-3 inch totals in
3 hours that would exceed local FFG - especially in southern New
England. Should the rainfall materialize as progged, flash
flooding will become likely overnight.
![December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Mcd11910](https://i.servimg.com/u/f53/18/65/60/45/mcd11910.gif)
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 110147Z - 110747Z
Summary...A brief lull in the flash flood threat exists in the
short term, but additional heavy rainfall over the Mid-Atlantic
will move into the discussion area and pose a risk of flash
flooding - especially in urbanized areas.
Discussion...The flash flood threat continues across the
discussion area. A brief lull in rainfall has occurred over the
past hour or so, with the heaviest rain rates confined to much of
New Jersey and areas to the south and west. An extensive warm
conveyor remains in place across the region, which was maintaining
anomalous instability (500 J/kg MUCAPE) and moisture (1.3-1.4 inch
PW values), while weak/subtle shortwaves aloft have helped to
focus convective development. The complex across New Jersey and
points southwest have generally resulted in 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain
rates and spots of 1.5-2 inch totals in a three-hour period.
These rates will result in an increasing flash flood risk tonight
as heavier rain reaches southern New England - especially given
the antecedent rainfall and wet soils across the region.
There is some concern that even heavier rates may materialize
across the region in the 03-06Z timeframe. A cold front currently
over eastern Pennsylvania and central Maryland was approaching and
should slowly traverse the discussion area from west to east
through the night. Meanwhile, low-level wind fields are expected
to increase dramatically. The resulting increase in low-level
convergence and marginal buoyancy should continue to support heavy
rainfall, and some models suggest potential for 2-3 inch totals in
3 hours that would exceed local FFG - especially in southern New
England. Should the rainfall materialize as progged, flash
flooding will become likely overnight.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
From the looks of the HRRR the squall line moves through east of NYC and the only places that see any wind at all is central LI and points east, sroc you could get hit pretty hard. Everyone else likely won't see much, just rain. Hoping it is done by the morning, nothing worse than a soaking Monday morning.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
We have heavy rain over us
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Nah as I said I think it is all east f about central LI (western LI may even be spared sig winds_). We will see, I know I will be sound asleep by then and since I use a white noise machine to help sleep I often dont wake to much even sirens.frank 638 wrote:Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
jmanley32 wrote:Nah as I said I think it is all east f about central LI (western LI may even be spared sig winds_). We will see, I know I will be sound asleep by then and since I use a white noise machine to help sleep I often dont wake to much even sirens.frank 638 wrote:Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.
Heavy rain and winds around 20 right now . Almost training
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Officially a wintry mix up here right now. Rain, sleet, snow, we’ve got it all lol 36°.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
I’d say 60% snow, 20% sleet and 20% rain. Cars are slushy, but that’s about it so far. Good night all.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
I must admit, I’m surprised it went this early. I’ll see what I wake up to. What a kick in the teeth this would be….
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
100% snow now, light stickage on colder surfaces, I’ll call it SN.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
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1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
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