Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[rb924119]

I think the 18z EURO is about to go nuclear…… H5 looks incredible.

[rb924119]

Closes 850 hPa low over the NY Bight, and 700 hPa is now a notably stronger closed low over NYC . Not a great H7 track, but with the 850 hPa low further southeast it might end up ok. Let’s see precip.

[rb924119]

LOL NUKED but, it’s north so far. Looks like last night, just wetter. Let’s see if there’s any wrap-around.

[amugs]

Will there be another briefing from Mt Holly soon? Curious to see their adjustments. Last one was 6AM.

Regardless, cautious optimism up here in Sussex county.....hoping the trend is our friend.

You fuys are in a sweet spot. WSW are up for 8-12". 
Your fine and don't go above 30,31 the whole storm.

[rb924119]

Not as good as earlier with respect to KNYC and surrounding points, but the mid-levels were much improved with respect to their evolution, so the slight north adjustment might have been an over-correction.

[billg315]

18z Euro (consistent with/maybe slightly better than GFS) looks like a solid snowstorm for NEPA, NWNJ and the Hudson Valley.

From the NW Philly Burbs through Central/NE NJ and NYC is razors edge between a 4-8" type storm and a 1-3" storm. If you're on the wrong side of that demarcation line you're going to be really disappointed.

[amugs]

Okay Recon Flights take place in T minus 2 hours on WC so 0Z should have better data.
Energy is basically onshore so these model runs we take and hope they hold.
I want more consolidation at 850,700 and keep them off OCean City. Further south they go more cold air intrusion and deeper LP we get and dynamics.

To write off midweek storm is jumping the shark.,AO, NAO tanking and the stronger this storm gets as Rb says it'll pumped those up and draw down colder arctic air.  We need to put snow down to help that situation.
One storm at a time.

[rb924119]

18z Euro (consistent with/maybe slightly better than GFS) looks like a solid snowstorm for NEPA, NWNJ and the Hudson Valley.

From the NW Philly Burbs through Central/NE NJ and NYC is razors edge between a 4-8" type storm and a 1-3" storm. If you're on the wrong side of that demarcation line you're going to be really disappointed.

[aiannone]

Was hoping to see the 18z euro move to the GFS

[heehaw453]

18Z Euro was decent. I'm just wanting to keep the mid levels offshore. As you can see though the h850 consolidates a bit too late. It's strung out and not really wound up until after the BM. Notice how the low gets a little injection from the n/s (white) as it approaches the BM. I don't think models will get that really nailed down possibly right up to game time, but my expectations I think are good for my hood a few inches. Any more would be most appreciated.

edit. Technically the surface low not the 850 but it's the same idea it's getting it act together past the BM. That won't produce the good stuff here.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/ecmwf-deterministic-neng-uv850_mslp-1704391200-1704596400-1704661200-40.gif

[rb924119]

Was hoping to see the 18z euro move to the GFS

It would have been nice, but I’m not overly concerned. Tonight’s runs and tomorrow’s 12z runs should be…….interesting haha but, the trends that we wanted to see have seemingly commenced since 12z today. So fingers crossed they continue.

[aiannone]

Was hoping to see the 18z euro move to the GFS

It would have been nice, but I’m not overly concerned. Tonight’s runs and tomorrow’s 12z runs should be…….interesting haha but, the trends that we wanted to see have seemingly commenced since 12z today. So fingers crossed they continue.

So you’re telling me I have to pull a late night tonight lol

[dsix85]

I’m not convinced this isn’t done trending to our benefit. Massive improvements all day, I think overall we may get really excited later this evening.

Emokid- saw your post earlier, Happy New Year brother !

[rb924119]

18Z Euro was decent. I'm just wanting to keep the mid levels offshore. As you can see though the h850 consolidates a bit too late. It's strung out and not really wound up until after the BM. Notice how the low gets a little injection from the n/s (white) as it approaches the BM. I don't think models will get that really nailed down possibly right up to game time, but my expectations I think are good for my hood a few inches. Any more would be most appreciated.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/ecmwf-deterministic-neng-uv850_mslp-1704391200-1704596400-1704661200-40.gif

Look at the vorticity structure, though, heehaw. You can clearly see the frontal structures, especially at 850 hPa, and it closes off over southern NJ. You’re not going to get a perfectly symmetric appearance with this because it’s getting smushed beneath the block, which is why it has that elongated appearance. But just because it’s elongated, it doesn’t mean you don’t get a similar response with respect to the forcing, it’s just elongated too. That’s partly why you see that long comma head during the second part of the storm as it departs. As long as I can clearly see the frontal structure in the vorticity plots, and the circulations close off early enough/far enough south, I’m ok with it. Personally.

[rb924119]

Was hoping to see the 18z euro move to the GFS

It would have been nice, but I’m not overly concerned. Tonight’s runs and tomorrow’s 12z runs should be…….interesting haha but, the trends that we wanted to see have seemingly commenced since 12z today. So fingers crossed they continue.

So you’re telling me I have to pull a late night tonight lol

I believe you said those words, not me

[aiannone]

Was hoping to see the 18z euro move to the GFS

It would have been nice, but I’m not overly concerned. Tonight’s runs and tomorrow’s 12z runs should be…….interesting haha but, the trends that we wanted to see have seemingly commenced since 12z today. So fingers crossed they continue.

So you’re telling me I have to pull a late night tonight lol

I believe you said those words, not me

Well I’ll be here through the gfs at least haha!

[heehaw453]

18Z Euro was decent. I'm just wanting to keep the mid levels offshore. As you can see though the h850 consolidates a bit too late. It's strung out and not really wound up until after the BM. Notice how the low gets a little injection from the n/s (white) as it approaches the BM. I don't think models will get that really nailed down possibly right up to game time, but my expectations I think are good for my hood a few inches. Any more would be most appreciated.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/ecmwf-deterministic-neng-uv850_mslp-1704391200-1704596400-1704661200-40.gif

Look at the vorticity structure, though, heehaw. You can clearly see the frontal structures, especially at 850 hPa, and it closes off over southern NJ. You’re not going to get a perfectly symmetric appearance with this because it’s getting smushed beneath the block, which is why it has that elongated appearance. But just because it’s elongated, it doesn’t mean you don’t get a similar response with respect to the forcing, it’s just elongated too. That’s partly why you see that long comma head during the second part of the storm as it departs. As long as I can clearly see the frontal structure in the vorticity plots, and the circulations close off early enough/far enough south, I’m ok with it. Personally.

Yeah technically it's the surface Low what is in the gif, but I think the storm is blowing up due to an injection of n/s energy into low. You are right for sure in that the block is pressing on it so it elongates it initially, but that extra kick before it's too late is what can make this special. Without some "Red Bull" this won't be special IMO.

[rb924119]

Fair point. But even still, with ratios I think those who jackpot still well exceed a foot. Certainly nothing to sneeze at in my opinion. Even if it’s only 8”, that’s still a decent storm to me.

[rb924119]

SREFS look to continue the favorable trends. Earlier close off at 850, slightly cooler, definitely wetter. Waiting on more maps.

[heehaw453]

Fair point. But even still, with ratios I think those who jackpot still well exceed a foot. Certainly nothing to sneeze at in my opinion. Even if it’s only 8”, that’s still a decent storm to me.

Absolutely Rb hell 6" would seem HECS to me right now. And, yes I definitely am not doubting some folks can get to double digits as it stands and that is a great storm. Again win, lose or draw it's been fun to track and learn.

[rb924119]

Amen to that! Haha would better if our thoughts verify, though lol

[aiannone]

SREFS look to continue the favorable trends. Earlier close off at 850, slightly cooler, definitely wetter. Waiting on more maps.

RB if you have sref graphics please share!

[rb924119]

SREFS look to continue the favorable trends. Earlier close off at 850, slightly cooler, definitely wetter. Waiting on more maps.

RB if you have sref graphics please share!

It’s hard to post the graphics because you’re looking a postage stamps of the ensemble members, but I can share the link for those interested and you can navigate around the different levels from there.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html

[heehaw453]

50th percentile 18Z EPS. To me this seems reasonable.

[rb924119]

00z NAM has initialized.

[aiannone]

00z NAM has initialized.

I’m here!

[aiannone]

Heights looking a bit lower through 21 I believe

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