Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[aiannone]

00z NAM has initialized.

I’m here!

[aiannone]

Heights looking a bit lower through 21 I believe

[aiannone]

DT's map:

[weatherwatchermom]

I'm here too got nothing better to do recouping from bad case of covid...anything more than the 1/2 inch that we got last year is a win

[weatherwatchermom]

DT's map:

Ehh gads that heavy ice area

[frank 638]

DT's map:

I have a quick question my best friend lives in Lake Ronkonkoma we just fixed his snowblower today. Do you think he’ll need it for Sunday because I told him I don’t think in Suffolk County it won’t be that bad.

[aiannone]

DT's map:

I have a quick question my best friend lives in Lake Ronkonkoma we just fixed his snowblower today. Do you think he’ll need it for Sunday because I told him I don’t think in Suffolk County it won’t be that bad.

We are on the line. Going to be hard to answer that until tomorrow.

[rb924119]

MAJOR changes to the jet structure through 30. This looks promising.

[aiannone]

MAJOR changes to the jet structure through 30. This looks promising.

Let's see! Definitely some changes from 18z

[aiannone]

MAJOR changes to the jet structure through 30. This looks promising.

Ray if you look at 42 vs 48 (12z vs 18z), notice the isobars are pressing south more on the 18z nam vs 12z. Isn't that not what we want?

[rb924119]

Ok, now we are starting to see some differences translate further down at 48. H5 and H7 notably deeper, which should mean better forcing. Let’s see what happens, and how far north they get….

[rb924119]

MAJOR changes to the jet structure through 30. This looks promising.

Ray if you look at 42 vs 48 (12z vs 18z), notice the isobars are pressing south more on the 18z nam vs 12z. Isn't that not what we want?

I’m looking against 12z, but a flatter ambient flow doesn’t necessarily hurt us IF the actual wave itself is more amplified, because it would help the wave to gain less latitude as it approaches before slipping east.

[aiannone]

[aiannone]

MAJOR changes to the jet structure through 30. This looks promising.

Ray if you look at 42 vs 48 (12z vs 18z), notice the isobars are pressing south more on the 18z nam vs 12z. Isn't that not what we want?

I’m looking against 12z, but a flatter ambient flow doesn’t necessarily hurt us IF the actual wave itself is more amplified, because it would help the wave to gain less latitude as it approaches before slipping east.

I see, thanks!

[rb924119]

850 looks great. 700 consolidated over NYC. Should get wrap-around though. As it is, it looks like a cold run to me.

[aiannone]

850 looks great. 700 consolidated over NYC. Should get wrap-around though. As it is, it looks like a cold run to me.

Definitely colder ray

[billg315]

Low is a little too tucked into the coast for my liking on the NAM. Last run it was well off the Delmarva. This one it’s tucked in closer to the Delaware Bay.

[rb924119]

Now let’s see what round 2 does….

[Frank_Wx]

H5 heights are lower on 00z nam vs 18z. Mid level vorticity is also draped over NYC while on 18z it was found in southern NJ. Look like it’s going to be a nice run

[aiannone]

Filling back in for round 2

[Frank_Wx]

Still wants to jackpot Westwood

[rb924119]

That’s very GEM-ish with the totals. Which is interesting because the Euro has had notably higher PWAT anomalies, yet less QPF. This probably has to with the extended easterly flow and enhanced moisture transport over the Atlantic. That’s a known indicator of overperformers.

[dsix85]

Any chance of thunder snow along the coast as it strengthens?

[billg315]

Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

[Frank_Wx]

[heehaw453]

No complaints with the 00Z NAM. It did the needful as far I'm concerned.

[rb924119]

Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

Looks like a foot into the City, no?

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