JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
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Coachgriff
CPcantmeasuresnow
phil155
docstox12
Artechmetals
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DAYBLAZER
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frank 638
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tomsriversnowstorm
dsix85
aiannone
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
Heights looking a bit lower through 21 I believe
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
I'm here too got nothing better to do recouping from bad case of covid...anything more than the 1/2 inch that we got last year is a win
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
We are on the line. Going to be hard to answer that until tomorrow.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
MAJOR changes to the jet structure through 30. This looks promising.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
rb924119 wrote:MAJOR changes to the jet structure through 30. This looks promising.
Let's see! Definitely some changes from 18z
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
Ok, now we are starting to see some differences translate further down at 48. H5 and H7 notably deeper, which should mean better forcing. Let’s see what happens, and how far north they get….
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
I’m looking against 12z, but a flatter ambient flow doesn’t necessarily hurt us IF the actual wave itself is more amplified, because it would help the wave to gain less latitude as it approaches before slipping east.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
rb924119 wrote:
I’m looking against 12z, but a flatter ambient flow doesn’t necessarily hurt us IF the actual wave itself is more amplified, because it would help the wave to gain less latitude as it approaches before slipping east.
I see, thanks!
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
850 looks great. 700 consolidated over NYC. Should get wrap-around though. As it is, it looks like a cold run to me.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
rb924119 wrote:850 looks great. 700 consolidated over NYC. Should get wrap-around though. As it is, it looks like a cold run to me.
Definitely colder ray
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
Low is a little too tucked into the coast for my liking on the NAM. Last run it was well off the Delmarva. This one it’s tucked in closer to the Delaware Bay.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
Now let’s see what round 2 does….
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
H5 heights are lower on 00z nam vs 18z. Mid level vorticity is also draped over NYC while on 18z it was found in southern NJ. Look like it’s going to be a nice run
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
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weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
That’s very GEM-ish with the totals. Which is interesting because the Euro has had notably higher PWAT anomalies, yet less QPF. This probably has to with the extended easterly flow and enhanced moisture transport over the Atlantic. That’s a known indicator of overperformers.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
Any chance of thunder snow along the coast as it strengthens?
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
![JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I - Page 11 IMG-0042-gif-73ec1dbecc342bf1addb0780a74fe16b](https://i.postimg.cc/Y9Z8vLwL/IMG-0042-gif-73ec1dbecc342bf1addb0780a74fe16b.gif)
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
No complaints with the 00Z NAM. It did the needful as far I'm concerned.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I
billg315 wrote:Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.
Looks like a foot into the City, no?
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