Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Thread I

[heehaw453]

No complaints with the 00Z NAM. It did the needful as far I'm concerned.

[rb924119]

Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

Looks like a foot into the City, no?

[rb924119]

Any chance of thunder snow along the coast as it strengthens?

I don’t think so.

[dsix85]

Is that a 984 low as it pulls away?

[Frank_Wx]

Here is an animation of the hi-res nam. In both cases, the r/s line is awfully close to the city. This is going to be a battle for sure. One thing I am confident about…N&W is in for a significant storm. Maybe not quite a Godzilla but hey, Mothrazilla needs love too.

[billg315]

These back-end snows are also having an impact on the projected totals. A couple days ago the precip was supposed to end early Sunday but now decent snow is sticking around into the late afternoon.

[Frank_Wx]

Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

Looks like a foot into the City, no?

7”

[aiannone]

[Frank_Wx]

These back-end snows are also having an impact on the projected totals. A couple days ago the precip was supposed to end early Sunday but now decent snow is sticking around into the late afternoon.

I put very little faith in “backend” snow along the coast. If there isn’t enough forcing under the SW flank of the CCB, accumulations are going to be limited on Sunday.

[heehaw453]

If this gets it act together 150 miles SW of the BM the sig snow line is going to get much deeper into I95 towards Philly-NYC

[aiannone]

RGEM just initialized.

[Dunnzoo]

Still wants to jackpot Westwood  

yep, me and mugs get the goods on this one! Let's see if it holds serve tomorrow!

[sroc4]

These back-end snows are also having an impact on the projected totals. A couple days ago the precip was supposed to end early Sunday but now decent snow is sticking around into the late afternoon.

I put very little faith in “backend” snow along the coast. If there isn’t enough forcing under the SW flank of the CCB, accumulations are going to be limited on Sunday.

Back end snow in this case looks more to come from the second wave of vorticity which enhances the precip shield again.

[billg315]

These back-end snows are also having an impact on the projected totals. A couple days ago the precip was supposed to end early Sunday but now decent snow is sticking around into the late afternoon.

I put very little faith in “backend” snow along the coast. If there isn’t enough forcing under the SW flank of the CCB, accumulations are going to be limited on Sunday.

I’m skeptical also, but I think that projection is significantly impacting the model’s storm total projections.

[jmanley32]

Still wants to jackpot Westwood  

Is that all snow? I am in that blue too, i dunno if i should get more excited or not, its a sharp cutoff to the south of me.

[Frank_Wx]

If this gets it act together 150 miles SW of the BM the sig snow line is going to get much deeper into I95 towards Philly-NYC

Agreed, but thinking the block is too far north for us.

[Frank_Wx]

These back-end snows are also having an impact on the projected totals. A couple days ago the precip was supposed to end early Sunday but now decent snow is sticking around into the late afternoon.

I put very little faith in “backend” snow along the coast. If there isn’t enough forcing under the SW flank of the CCB, accumulations are going to be limited on Sunday.

Back end snow in this case looks more to come from the second wave of vorticity which enhances the precip shield again.

Yes agreed. But H7 doesn’t close off on that run verbatim until 21z Sunday. Pretty late

Still wants to jackpot Westwood  

Is that all snow? I am in that blue too, i dunno if i should get more excited or not, its a sharp cutoff to the south of me.

It is and isn’t at the same time

[heehaw453]

Out of its range for sure, but the 3k NAM is enthused.

[billg315]

I’ll sign for the NAM snow map right now and call it a day. 9-10” imby. Thats about 9” more than I had the last two winters combined.

[jmanley32]

Sign me up that 12.0 just north of NYC if zoom in on pivotal wx is yonkers. For some reason they actually put Yonkers as a point on their map. I doubt a foot accumulates, ground too warm.

Off topic but I am in a serious amount of pain, I had a cortizone shot this morning for arthritis in my right shoulder and the pain is excrutiating, hence why you have not heard from me in a few hours, been icing and iboprofen every 6 hrs tylenol every 8. Ugg I hope this goes away soon. I am loathing the shoveling but I still want to see the storm. Has time still start sat night? I will be heading back to NY in the afternoon, i still should be okay for travel yes?

[rb924119]

Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

Looks like a foot into the City, no?

7”

Ohh my bad haha still, it’s a lot better than it’s been, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more.

[amugs]

3K NAM plaster NNJ and LHV

[jmanley32]

These back-end snows are also having an impact on the projected totals. A couple days ago the precip was supposed to end early Sunday but now decent snow is sticking around into the late afternoon.

I put very little faith in “backend” snow along the coast. If there isn’t enough forcing under the SW flank of the CCB, accumulations are going to be limited on Sunday.

Back end snow in this case looks more to come from the second wave of vorticity which enhances the precip shield again.

Yes agreed. But H7 doesn’t close off on that run verbatim until 21z Sunday. Pretty late

Still wants to jackpot Westwood  

Is that all snow? I am in that blue too, i dunno if i should get more excited or not, its a sharp cutoff to the south of me.

It is and isn’t at the same time

Not at same time? You mean that it comes in two parts like the run showed?

[aiannone]

0z RGEM

[jmanley32]

3K NAM plaster NNJ and LHV

tahts a nice look even down to NYC, slowly creweping further into the blue for me to start feeling like big numbers may be possible. Nail biting for next 2 days.

[jmanley32]

0z RGEM

yuck 0 for NYC and southern WC toss lol, we dont have consistency so 0-12 lol

[jmanley32]

Snowfall map on 0z NAM seems realistic to me and def brings the significant totals down into the NYC metro and north shore of LI.

Looks like a foot into the City, no?

7”

Ohh my bad haha still, it’s a lot better than it’s been, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more.

Heck yeah and I expect it will be a bit higher here just far enough away from heat island. Rope it in ray, this is getting close to your idea!

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