JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..

weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring  at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..

slight chance of that on 16th, not fri/sat though thats another dismal cutter, originally it was looking possible it might not cut but its in close range now 48 hrs or so and its pretty set, intensity is kinda still in question, SR models appear to have it pretty strong.

See what interests me is your guys definition of raring winds, 25-30 mph and 40 mph gusts is not exactly roaring IMO, so what would you call 50-70 mph, godzilla roaring winds lol?

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 49* down from a 57* high.. winds roaring  at 21mph wsw we had a gust of 30 a bit ago..our rain total was 2.54 inches...bring on the SNOW..

slight chance of that on 16th, not fri/sat though thats another dismal cutter, originally it was looking possible it might not cut but its in close range now 48 hrs or so and its pretty set, intensity is kinda still in question, SR models appear to have it pretty strong.

yeah I figured Fri more rain..but the cold is coming! we need snow..no snow in 2 years down here except for mood flakes...

Winds absolutely ripping, loud! Power lines moving all over right outside my window.

I'd love to see a printout of wind observations if somebody can find a map of highest observed gusts, or a PNS/LSR summary from the NWS. I haven't found one yet.

This was the type of storm that if the reporting station reported gust to 48 mph, a distance of maybe a thousand or two feet or less can be a gust to 60 mph. Am I correct in my assumption rb ?

WeatherBob wrote:This was the type of storm that if the reporting station reported  gust to 48 mph, a distance of maybe a thousand or two feet or less can be a gust to 60 mph.  Am I correct in my assumption rb ?

I think also has alot to do if things like buildings are in the way when the wind blows and it stops it. Like the direction the wind is now is right at my windows last night it was parallel so i barely heard it.

Some pictures

WeatherBob wrote:This was the type of storm that if the reporting station reported  gust to 48 mph, a distance of maybe a thousand or two feet or less can be a gust to 60 mph.  Am I correct in my assumption rb ?

I don't see any reason to disagree. Wind is incredibly unpredictable, and local/micro-scale topographical or even infrastructural features can affect them, so seeing a variance of several mph is not unexpected, at least in my opinion.

rb924119 wrote:I'd love to see a printout of wind observations if somebody can find a map of highest observed gusts, or a PNS/LSR summary from the NWS. I haven't found one yet.

Not a very extensive list rb, but saw this looking at my forecast from NWS. Timestamp was 3:34AM so list probably needs to be updated.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf

Here was the rainfall totals. A little more extensive view.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240110_Rainfall_PNS.pdf

My beloved Bayville! This road that is underwater is Bayview Ave, one of the prettiest roads there is. Marsh wetlands with all kinds of visible and exotic wildlife on the west side and about a mile’s worth of Barnegat Bay going into Seaside Park/Island Beach State Park to the east. I’ve been on the road a few times at high tide when I didn’t like how high the water was, so I could only imagine how terrifying and upsetting this was to the folk who live over there.

GreyBeard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I'd love to see a printout of wind observations if somebody can find a map of highest observed gusts, or a PNS/LSR summary from the NWS. I haven't found one yet.

Not a very extensive list rb, but saw this looking at my forecast from NWS. Timestamp was 3:34AM so list probably needs to be updated.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/windpns2.pdf

Here was the rainfall totals. A little more extensive view.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240110_Rainfall_PNS.pdf

Thanks, GreyBeard! It definitely helped me to verify my wind forecast, which, outside of the coastal areas and the northern/western zones, was overdone. This was certainly an interesting event, especially with the inconsistent performance of that squall line. I almost wonder if the intensity of the low-level jet helps to make it less susceptible to vertical perturbations/mixing, even without the presence of any inversion, almost like it becomes more “rigid” in a sense. I’m not sure. But, in the end, I’m glad that the maximum potential severity wasn’t realized, at least with the wind. The rainfall and flooding, however, definitely were, which is worse :/

Yesterday the Yantic Rivers Dam broke in Norwichtown CT, absolutely devastating to the residents there had to be military and air rescues. My friend lives about 5 min from there but is in a elevated area.

I saw that, Jman. Awful.