JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

Dunnzoo wrote:For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

How do you change the area?

Uh oh.  From the 3:30 Mount Holly NWS discussion.

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

How do you change the area?

sorry, should have sent this one:

https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=okx&TypeDefault=graphical

Detailed Forecast
This AfternoonRain. High near 52. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
TonightRain and possibly a thunderstorm before 4am, then a chance of rain. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 44. Windy, with a south wind 30 to 35 mph becoming southwest 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
WednesdayA chance of showers, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Weak to no inversion oy...per actual soundings. And PWAT values are nuts.

o changes to the wind headlines. High wind warning and wind
advisory remain in effect for the entire region. The main concern
with the winds will be a low level jet maximum of near 100 kt that
develops this evening at a height of around 4-8 kft. Model sounding
BUFKIT profiles do not depict a strong inversion, as the thermal
profiles appear to be close to isothermal. Winds just 1-2kft above
the surface are shown to reach 50-60 kt according to multiple model
BUFKIT soundings across the coastal areas and with the heavy rain
and aforementioned thermal profiles, much of this should get mixed
down to the surface through downward momentum transport. The
timeframe for this generally between 02Z Wednesday and 10Z
Wednesday.

Also, increasing omega and an increasing southerly flow throughout
the troposphere will increase the PWATS to well above 90th
percentile climatology values overnight. Models still conveying PWAT
values near 1.4 inches maximum overnight into the coastal parts of
the region. Expecting a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall
overnight. With some elevated instability across eastern parts of
the region, can nor rule out a few isolated rumble of thunder. This
seems to line up with the CAMs, which depict a consolidating squall
line that seems to get more organized as it makes it way farther
east within the region overnight.

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

How do you change the area?

sorry, should have sent this one:

https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=okx&TypeDefault=graphical

Cool thanks yikes NYC goes about 60mph for a hour or so. Peaks around 12-2am. But still strong majority of the evening. That's the closest I can get for my area.

Per Upton disco timeframe for strongest winds is 9pm to 5am wow that's a long time.

phil155 wrote:Detailed Forecast
This AfternoonRain. High near 52. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
TonightRain and possibly a thunderstorm before 4am, then a chance of rain. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 44. Windy, with a south wind 30 to 35 mph becoming southwest 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
WednesdayA chance of showers, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Winds appear to be less for you, my forecast says 60mph gusts.

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

How do you change the area?

sorry, should have sent this one:

https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=okx&TypeDefault=graphical

Very cool tool, thanks. checked for Newark (closest to me) and the winds there are expected to gust to around 54mph but go to NYC and east and it is 60+

phil155 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

How do you change the area?

sorry, should have sent this one:

https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=okx&TypeDefault=graphical

Very cool tool, thanks.  checked for Newark (closest to me)  and the winds there are expected to gust to around 54mph but go to NYC and east and it is 60+

Whats odd is that New Havent, CT close to my parents in the 70mph warning it says 52mph?

There's our big cutter surface L getting into northern Indiana. That's an impressive southernly flow out ahead of it. I expect temps to really rise quickly if they haven't already for folks. Surface low already at 980mb. Flooding will be a problem where there is and soon to be was snow, no question about it.

.58" in the bucket 46.2/46.2

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:For Newark, you can choose other sites in your area. Gives you an idea of when to expect winds/gusts.


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=40.7241&textField2=-74.1732&site=okx&unit=0&dd=&bw=

How do you change the area?

sorry, should have sent this one:

https://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=okx&TypeDefault=graphical

Very cool tool, thanks.  checked for Newark (closest to me)  and the winds there are expected to gust to around 54mph but go to NYC and east and it is 60+

Whats odd is that New Havent, CT close to my parents in the 70mph warning it says 52mph?

I noticed something similar with the accuweather website forecast saying gusts to 70 in my area but yet for NYC it was only 52

heehaw453 wrote:There's our big cutter surface L getting into northern Indiana. That's an impressive southernly flow out ahead of it. I expect temps to really rise quickly if they haven't already for folks. Surface low already at 980mb. Flooding will be a problem where there is and soon to be was snow, no question about it.

.58" in the bucket 46.2/46.2

I don’t think northern zones will lose all of their snow, but I definitely agree folks south of I-78 could approach 60° which is why that’s my max zone. I think the coast suffers some because they’ll be refrigerated by the cooler water.

Getting gusty here now. Tough to find any good obs, but I’d estimate 25-30 mph now.

Winds picking up here in coastal ocean county the LLJ is getting loud

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

Well the damage will be done by then, what's the model show for tonight? That's amazing how quickly it will cut off. What is that model anyways?

I think this is a blend of NWS WFO forecast grids…? Mugs can correct me if I’m wrong 

Yes it is. Dam GIF didn't load. 
Heavy rains in t-minus 30 minutes to overtake the state on NJ.

30-35 mph now.

And there went the power lol

Worst of the winds is when we are sleeping.....10Pmish through 2amish..well most of us....except JMAN n Rb to name 2. LOL

skinsfan1177 wrote:Winds picking up here in coastal ocean county the LLJ is getting loud

Hey Skins! Hope you’re well

Mod rain with a Se wind 24 mph with gust up to 31 mph

we jumped to 48* have a 1/2 inch of rain already and winds have picked up 17mph se with a gust of 21 a couple of minutes ago...

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Winds picking up here in coastal ocean county the LLJ is getting loud

Hey Skins! Hope you’re well

All is good buddy. Expecting a a good show here tonight. The beaches here have been taking a beating

rb924119 wrote:And there went the power lol

oh no hope you have a generator..

amugs wrote:Worst of the winds is when we are sleeping.....10Pmish through 2amish..well most of us....except JMAN n Rb to name 2. LOL

Jman at 2am wondering why Westchester is not seeing high winds

Mugs will the jersey shore being seeing different timing or are we kinda in the same boat. I know we tend to be different sometimes. Thankfully right now there is basically nothing.

amugs wrote:Worst of the winds is when we are sleeping.....10Pmish through 2amish..well most of us....except JMAN n Rb to name 2. LOL

amugs wrote:Worst of the winds is when we are sleeping.....10Pmish through 2amish..well most of us....except JMAN n Rb to name 2. LOL

I'll be up monitoring the reservoir lol