JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA

Yes some of the more aggressive forecasts for this end of week warm-up were overdone. Only got up to about 49* here today and it was a raw/chilly 49*. Earlier this week some forecasts had me in the upper 50s today. Probably doesn't mean much for Sunday though. As pointed out above by heehaw and scott this really depends on the storm intensifying enough to pull in and create it's own cold air source. Except areas N and W where I think the chances of some accumulating snow are pretty decent regardless.

Earlier this week I had co workers saying to me at lunch, it's going to be 60 Friday and a nice weekend and I said I don't buy it this Thaw is short lived. Look at next week's temps are tye storm? 
And the storm is too early as said above, whenever you move up 24hrs a storm will inevitably fail somehow. IF this came in as pronged 2 days ago Sunday night into Modday Monday, tye HP has time to then get in place  and sag a bit S, now it'll feel that LP primary and back off s bit. Paths of least resistance in weather n nature.  Time will tell but 18Z GFS is at the bar looking at the shanty SROC pictured above  still holds onto to a decent snow until it wakes up and shift 75 miles NW. 
Shame......again.
End of the week has a wild set up IF true but that'll change of course.

Should be a very frustrating inch or two total for this atm.

Nothing worse than being right on the line 33-34 and watching it to back to rain snow and nothing to show for it.

Bring on February.

34.5 and heavy rain.  This is the stuff nightmares are made of. Great storm track, heavy precip, time of year where the average temp is 35/16 and this is what we get. Someone make the madness of the last two years stop.

13.5 inches on the season and doubting we add anything to that today.

34.2 and a 50/50 mix of rain and snow. Riding that line. Would think 20 miles north of me by Damian should be all snow. Also NW Jersey above 1,000 feet should be all snow too.

37.7/34 with heavy rain And .6 in the bucket. Just miserable.

Hoping for a Sunday miracle for our friends up north and out west. Any amount of accumulating snow, and if that is just not meant to be, at least some nice mood flakes!

dkodgis wrote:Anything that could go wrong did

The motto of the winter of 2023/24.

So Im not quite sure how to upload the GIF such that it appears right in the thread without having to click the link, but well I cant.  That said if you click the link above you will see it.  Apparently some of the Hi Res models are potentially hinting at a quick hitting change over between approx 2am and 4am tomorrow am for some of the coastal and eastern sections.  If true, some of us on Long Island could wake to a quick coating to maybe an inch or so in the am.  The link above is the Hrrr, but the 3 and 12k NAM, and possibly 2.5k RGEM are all hinting at it as well.  I guess it boils down to the timing of when the last slug of moisture moves out compared to the temps crashing.  We'll see.  With the MJO in an extremely hostile state this really was never our storm as outlined from the beginning.  Anything squeezed out of this will be a bonus.    

GFS:

dkodgis wrote:Anything that could go wrong did

I disagree Damian.  This pretty much went according to plan given the atmosphere in its current state.  Hostile MJO phase with amplitude.  After all we are in the "Jan Thaw" and had a shot.  Atmosphere appears to be heading back towards a more favorable state over the next 10days or so, give or take, with additional opportunities on the table during that time of transition.  Cautious optimism needed for February.

The reality was it was a race between the Arctic HP and the Primary low such that when the transfer took place where was the Arctic HP and how strong was it? See above. Below was the CMC 00z run on the 24th when it showed one of the colder solns. Look at how strong the HP is to our north and to the west, as well as the positioning; esp the one to the north.




Now take a look at the CMC from todays 12z run valid for 1pm today. Notice how far north the HP still is and how much weaker it is in reality compared to the forecast from a four days ago.




Here is your current meso anaysis. If we had an HP parked in the position I have outlined this would be a beast for all with a Miller B transfering off the coast in the position its taking place. A damn shame for sure, but again not to beat the dead horse but with the MJO is in an extremely hostile state, none of this was unexpected.