Long Range Thread 28.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Model mayhem.
I say we are all due for a bit of luck
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![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Gfs30012](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/gfs30012.png)
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Gfsent10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/gfsent10.png)
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
heehaw453 wrote:Also this storm has plenty of cold air getting wrapped around its backside. That's clear and the PNA ridge will aide that on the split flow. Make no mistake if it deepens the mid-levels will crash as its core full of cold air and there is cold air to our NW pushing down. The other point the ULL will probably exit off Delmarva as it came ashore in Bay Area.
Norm Macdonald rule?? Love it. I specifically like your idea about the colder air wrapping in. I think more and more a straight cutter is likely slipping off the table. That may have been better to reinforce the Greenland block more quickly, but retrograding Scandinavian blocking is more classic anyhow. I think even if a lot of the area starts as rain it can switch over in time for it to matter. There should theoretically only be so much it can gain latitude before shunted to the east.
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![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Euro154](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/euro154.png)
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
heehaw453 wrote:Also this storm has plenty of cold air getting wrapped around its backside. That's clear and the PNA ridge will aide that on the split flow. Make no mistake if it deepens the mid-levels will crash as its core full of cold air and there is cold air to our NW pushing down. The other point the ULL will probably exit off Delmarva as it came ashore in Bay Area.
Here are most of the major players. As heehaw stated there are big picture players out over the pacific that justify us even talking about this as a potential. The SOI crash is legit, strong neg for now 10days. THIS is a major signal for a shake up to the atmosphere is underway, and cold is coming for the eastern third of the CONUS. The MJO is also on its way, if not already when you look at the OLR maps actually, into phase 8 which 100% supports a colder soln in the east. The MJO and the SOI are intimately linked, and adds another feather in the cap that supports a winter storm for the 12-14th time frame, as well as the potential for a more sustained colder pattern. BUT The question is still what about IMBY for the 12th-14th??
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Ecmwf179](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/ecmwf179.png)
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Gem-al20](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/gem-al20.png)
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Gfs-de72](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/gfs-de72.png)
Here are the flys in the ointment that will determine the IMBY questions. All three maps, Euro/cmc/gfs are valid images for Saturday eve 10pm.
n/s = northern stream,
s/s = southern stream
These two pieces are what heehaw has been discussing. The n/s is the red bull Heehaw talked about a post or two above. Timing and positioning of both of these are critical. What's going to determine these details?
First the Northern Atlantic. This area of energy is the 50/50-ISH low that will slow things down to allow these two pieces to interact. But the strength and positioning of the 50/50-ish low is the first extremely important factor in determining the when and how the n/s and s/s stream interact.
Second the ridge along the west coast that I outlined and show the ridge axis with the black arrow. All three models show it going up as we approach the time of the maps I posted. This is what allows the n/s energy to dig into the conus, and POTENTIALLY open the gates to the cold air source and add energy IF they interact at the right times. It is critical that the s/s energy gets out ahead of the n/s, but not too much. This allows the back side entry and tilts our heights up the coast. However, if the s/s is in line with or slight behind the n/s energy or if the n/s is not allowed to dig enough then it will act as a steering mechanism that brings the system OTS and minimal cold air involvement in which case you get a system that either slips off to to our south or we see the N edge of the precip shield but it isnt cold enough to make a huge potential, esp for the coastal plain.
Now what could lead to less n/s digging and or throw off the timing of the n/s will be the small area of vorticity I circled just off the west coast out over the Pac. This piece on all three models is there with subtle yet import differences in its timing, positioning and strength. On all models this piece of energy seems to be undercutting the WC ridge to a degree as it comes ashore and begins to knock down the ridge to varying degrees. This LIKELY WILL play a factor, for better or worse. The positioning and strength of the 50/50-ish low; however, is a mechanism, that could negate some of these effects.
Again the full details of ALL the key points I highlighted above will be important. FACT: the pattern IS DEF on its way to a fundamental change that will allow multiple opportunities between the 12-4th thorugh at leat the end of the month. Fiction: We know for a fact that your back yard will reap the benefits of this regarding white gold. Truth is we just dont know, but.....
WE TRACK!!
![What a Face](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/fresse.png)
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
heehaw453 wrote:Also this storm has plenty of cold air getting wrapped around its backside. That's clear and the PNA ridge will aide that on the split flow. Make no mistake if it deepens the mid-levels will crash as its core full of cold air and there is cold air to our NW pushing down. The other point the ULL will probably exit off Delmarva as it came ashore in Bay Area.
Here are most of the major players. As heehaw stated there are big picture players out over the pacific that justify us even talking about this as a potential. The SOI crash is legit, strong neg for now 10days. THIS is a major signal for a shake up to the atmosphere is underway, and cold is coming for the eastern third of the CONUS. The MJO is also on its way, if not already when you look at the OLR maps actually, into phase 8 which 100% supports a colder soln in the east. The MJO and the SOI are intimately linked, and adds another feather in the cap that supports a winter storm for the 12-14th time frame, as well as the potential for a more sustained colder pattern. BUT The question is still what about IMBY for the 12th-14th??
Here are the flys in the ointment that will determine the IMBY questions. All three maps, Euro/cmc/gfs are valid images for Saturday eve 10pm.
n/s = northern stream,
s/s = southern stream
These two pieces are what heehaw has been discussing. The n/s is the red bull Heehaw talked about a post or two above. Timing and positioning of both of these are critical. What's going to determine these details?
First the Northern Atlantic. This area of energy is the 50/50-ISH low that will slow things down to allow these two pieces to interact. But the strength and positioning of the 50/50-ish low is the first extremely important factor in determining the when and how the n/s and s/s stream interact.
Second the ridge along the west coast that I outlined and show the ridge axis with the black arrow. All three models show it going up as we approach the time of the maps I posted. This is what allows the n/s energy to dig into the conus, and POTENTIALLY open the gates to the cold air source and add energy IF they interact at the right times. It is critical that the s/s energy gets out ahead of the n/s, but not too much. This allows the back side entry and tilts our heights up the coast. However, if the s/s is in line with or slight behind the n/s energy or if the n/s is not allowed to dig enough then it will act as a steering mechanism that brings the system OTS and minimal cold air involvement in which case you get a system that either slips off to to our south or we see the N edge of the precip shield but it isnt cold enough to make a huge potential, esp for the coastal plain.
Now what could lead to less n/s digging and or throw off the timing of the n/s will be the small area of vorticity I circled just off the west coast out over the Pac. This piece on all three models is there with subtle yet import differences in its timing, positioning and strength. On all models this piece of energy seems to be undercutting the WC ridge to a degree as it comes ashore and begins to knock down the ridge to varying degrees. This LIKELY WILL play a factor, for better or worse. The positioning and strength of the 50/50-ish low; however, is a mechanism, that could negate some of these effects.
Again the full details of ALL the key points I highlighted above will be important. FACT: the pattern IS DEF on its way to a fundamental change that will allow multiple opportunities between the 12-4th thorugh at leat the end of the month. Fiction: We know for a fact that your back yard will reap the benefits of this regarding white gold. Truth is we just dont know, but.....
WE TRACK!!
Just so folks can see the big picture, as of the 6z GFS initialization this am this is where the current positions of where the energy that will be our "n/s" and "s/s" energy currently sits way out over the Pac, and where the two pieces of energy that will combine to form our 50/50 energy as we head through the weekend. We have a little time before we sort through some of the finer details so def dont get too caught up in any one surface soln as the week progresses. By Saturday the pieces all come onshore and together.
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Gfs-de16](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/gfs-de16.jpg)
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
sroc4 wrote:sroc4 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:Also this storm has plenty of cold air getting wrapped around its backside. That's clear and the PNA ridge will aide that on the split flow. Make no mistake if it deepens the mid-levels will crash as its core full of cold air and there is cold air to our NW pushing down. The other point the ULL will probably exit off Delmarva as it came ashore in Bay Area.
Here are most of the major players. As heehaw stated there are big picture players out over the pacific that justify us even talking about this as a potential. The SOI crash is legit, strong neg for now 10days. THIS is a major signal for a shake up to the atmosphere is underway, and cold is coming for the eastern third of the CONUS. The MJO is also on its way, if not already when you look at the OLR maps actually, into phase 8 which 100% supports a colder soln in the east. The MJO and the SOI are intimately linked, and adds another feather in the cap that supports a winter storm for the 12-14th time frame, as well as the potential for a more sustained colder pattern. BUT The question is still what about IMBY for the 12th-14th??
Here are the flys in the ointment that will determine the IMBY questions. All three maps, Euro/cmc/gfs are valid images for Saturday eve 10pm.
n/s = northern stream,
s/s = southern stream
These two pieces are what heehaw has been discussing. The n/s is the red bull Heehaw talked about a post or two above. Timing and positioning of both of these are critical. What's going to determine these details?
First the Northern Atlantic. This area of energy is the 50/50-ISH low that will slow things down to allow these two pieces to interact. But the strength and positioning of the 50/50-ish low is the first extremely important factor in determining the when and how the n/s and s/s stream interact.
Second the ridge along the west coast that I outlined and show the ridge axis with the black arrow. All three models show it going up as we approach the time of the maps I posted. This is what allows the n/s energy to dig into the conus, and POTENTIALLY open the gates to the cold air source and add energy IF they interact at the right times. It is critical that the s/s energy gets out ahead of the n/s, but not too much. This allows the back side entry and tilts our heights up the coast. However, if the s/s is in line with or slight behind the n/s energy or if the n/s is not allowed to dig enough then it will act as a steering mechanism that brings the system OTS and minimal cold air involvement in which case you get a system that either slips off to to our south or we see the N edge of the precip shield but it isnt cold enough to make a huge potential, esp for the coastal plain.
Now what could lead to less n/s digging and or throw off the timing of the n/s will be the small area of vorticity I circled just off the west coast out over the Pac. This piece on all three models is there with subtle yet import differences in its timing, positioning and strength. On all models this piece of energy seems to be undercutting the WC ridge to a degree as it comes ashore and begins to knock down the ridge to varying degrees. This LIKELY WILL play a factor, for better or worse. The positioning and strength of the 50/50-ish low; however, is a mechanism, that could negate some of these effects.
Again the full details of ALL the key points I highlighted above will be important. FACT: the pattern IS DEF on its way to a fundamental change that will allow multiple opportunities between the 12-4th thorugh at leat the end of the month. Fiction: We know for a fact that your back yard will reap the benefits of this regarding white gold. Truth is we just dont know, but.....
WE TRACK!!
Just so folks can see the big picture, as of the 6z GFS initialization this am this is where the current positions of where the energy that will be our "n/s" and "s/s" energy currently sits way out over the Pac, and where the two pieces of energy that will combine to form our 50/50 energy as we head through the weekend. We have a little time before we sort through some of the finer details so def dont get too caught up in any one surface soln as the week progresses. By Saturday the pieces all come onshore and together.
Agree 100%. Moving parts abound and too early for specifics. However, I think there needs to be some n/s that sneaks out ahead of the s/s for the air mass and keep this southern piece from riding too far north. As shown this won't work here as the air mass is too warm initially and this is a CNE special. What I was seeing before is more confluence over NE. There has to be enough resistance to keep this storm to bomb off Delmarva and LI. This is going to be a powerful storm most likely and it would be a damn shame to waste it.
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 Gfstoo10](https://i.servimg.com/u/f69/19/86/88/64/gfstoo10.png)
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
MattyICE wrote:Rain for most on 12z GFS OP - but as hard as it truly tries to classically “cut” it can’t. It ends up still transferring to the coast just too late for many of us. I think it’s still “fixable” for the NYC metro. Wouldn’t take much at this lead time. It’s also just nice to see a juiced up storm to kick off the pattern. May rain in peoples backyards but could end up a worthy sacrifice towards a better outcome as the pattern matures later in the period.
It needs more resistance to the north. I would like a little n/s to sneak out ahead of the s/s to prevent that and also facilitate cooling the antecedent air mass. Can't waste a bomb like this in peak climo. No how no way.
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Also curious for heehaw and sroc's thoughts (and this may have been covered earlier in the thread at a point I didn't read) with regard to the fact that it doesn't appear to me that we have a strong High over eastern Canada. Am I correct in that? And if so does that deprive us of A. a better cold air source, and B. allow the Low to get further north (which is not good for us)?
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
heehaw453 wrote:MattyICE wrote:Rain for most on 12z GFS OP - but as hard as it truly tries to classically “cut” it can’t. It ends up still transferring to the coast just too late for many of us. I think it’s still “fixable” for the NYC metro. Wouldn’t take much at this lead time. It’s also just nice to see a juiced up storm to kick off the pattern. May rain in peoples backyards but could end up a worthy sacrifice towards a better outcome as the pattern matures later in the period.
It needs more resistance to the north. I would like a little n/s to sneak out ahead of the s/s to prevent that and also facilitate cooling the antecedent air mass. Can't waste a bomb like this in peak climo. No how no way.
If you guys look closely on this run the 50/50-ish position is a tad too far north. There is too much space between the 50/50 and the system. With the system being so amped and phasing with the n/s the poor wave spacing allows to much height amplification out ahead leading to the tucked track. In this scenario if the 50/50 was even a 100-200 miles further south and west it would not have allowed for the primary to get that far N
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 7 1707814800-fIXFfi0oqDs](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_norm_anom/1707307200/1707814800-fIXFfi0oqDs.png)
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
billg315 wrote:12Z GFS showing transfer to coastal Low taking place but it looks like with upper levels closing off a little too late and a little too "tucked" right over New Jersey so goes over to snow on the backside but still primarily a rain event. If that coastal pops a little earlier and a little further south/east of the GFS modeling, I think we could be in good shape. On the 0z Euro the Low pops around the southern Delmarva, which is where I think we would want it -- hence the more impressive snow output on the Euro.
Also curious for heehaw and sroc's thoughts (and this may have been covered earlier in the thread at a point I didn't read) with regard to the fact that it doesn't appear to me that we have a strong High over eastern Canada. Am I correct in that? And if so does that deprive us of A. a better cold air source, and B. allow the Low to get further north (which is not good for us)?
IMO the cold air will come from the digging n/s energy and the 50/50 MUST be in good position to create confluence as the primary trys to cut. W/O strong confluence over the NE the amplified nature of a phasing system will allow to much height amplification and warm sectoring, of the coastal plain at the very least, out ahead of the primary.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
sroc4 wrote:billg315 wrote:12Z GFS showing transfer to coastal Low taking place but it looks like with upper levels closing off a little too late and a little too "tucked" right over New Jersey so goes over to snow on the backside but still primarily a rain event. If that coastal pops a little earlier and a little further south/east of the GFS modeling, I think we could be in good shape. On the 0z Euro the Low pops around the southern Delmarva, which is where I think we would want it -- hence the more impressive snow output on the Euro.
Also curious for heehaw and sroc's thoughts (and this may have been covered earlier in the thread at a point I didn't read) with regard to the fact that it doesn't appear to me that we have a strong High over eastern Canada. Am I correct in that? And if so does that deprive us of A. a better cold air source, and B. allow the Low to get further north (which is not good for us)?
IMO the cold air will come from the digging n/s energy and the 50/50 MUST be in good position to create confluence as the primary trys to cut. W/O strong confluence over the NE the amplified nature of a phasing system will allow to much height amplification and warm sectoring, of the coastal plain at the very least, out ahead of the primary.
100% agree. I think the blocking will pinch the 50/50 a bit more south west. Matter of fact I like seeing amped solution now because I think the reality will be not quite as amped. Models have a tendency to go extremes at this range only to pull back as the fidelity of the data increases.
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
From a purely non-scientific point of view, I'll say this: I am perfectly content (perhaps even pleased) that models are not throwing out consensus 'bullseye' target hits for our area at this juncture. For the past few years, it seems that every storm that gives us those big hits on LR guidance 5-7 days out almost always falls apart by the time shorter-range guidance comes into play. No matter how good things look in the atmosphere.
I've had a feeling for awhile now that once our region finally gets a good old-fashioned snow storm, it will be from a system that gradually builds enthusiasm during the final few days leading up to it. Who knows, maybe this is it.
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
DAYBLAZER wrote:Fantastic discussion everyone. Really educational. Happy to see some activity on the board, things certainly have been bleak.
From a purely non-scientific point of view, I'll say this: I am perfectly content (perhaps even pleased) that models are not throwing out consensus 'bullseye' target hits for our area at this juncture. For the past few years, it seems that every storm that gives us those big hits on LR guidance 5-7 days out almost always falls apart by the time shorter-range guidance comes into play. No matter how good things look in the atmosphere.
I've had a feeling for awhile now that once our region finally gets a good old-fashioned snow storm, it will be from a system that gradually builds enthusiasm during the final few days leading up to it. Who knows, maybe this is it.
Could not have said it better myself!
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
The bonus feature of the long range will be the Stratosphere. As of today, models continue to show a very robust SSWE happening around mid-February. We'll see if that comes to fruition but it's looking good. However, let's not get ahead of ourselves! We have a storm to track. Aka the pre-VDay storm.
The latest EURO did not have the phase. It is all southern stream driven (like all our storms this year). You're probably wondering, wait, you just told us the development of a -EPO should allow for more northern and southern stream phasing. While in theory this is true, the issue I'm seeing with this specific event is that we lose the PNA ridge, which ends up throwing off the rest of the 500mb set-up upstream. There is a very pesky short wave that tries to crash into the PAC NW around the 12th. This impacts our storm on the east coast. Couple that with the 50/50 Low position Scott talked about, there are a couple of things working against keeping our storm track to our S&E.
However, these types of things can change once they are better sampled. We definitely can't declare this event "dead" quite yet. Let's see where we stand come Saturday. It really won't take much. We really just need a better 50/50 position and better heights out west.
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
We shall see. Can't post graphics travelling...
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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