Re: Long Range Thread 28.0

[Irish]

Anybody know rb personally? He has gone radio silent for a bit now. He didn't check in once leading up to this last storm.

[amugs]

This really mucked up our winter and possibly late hurrah the models were o gung ho on showing end of Jan and early Feb for teh upcoming period. These are phase 4 in MJO and these waters are not cooling which should be in this Nino base state but is anything going to plan this winter?? Latest LR model show the western trough coming back into Alaska which would end this winter so lets get what we can as Heehaw pointed thee next two weeks.
Look at these hot spots off New Zealand and Eastern Australia. 3C above normal!! What's causing it?? Underwater Volcanoes some have surmised and it is a very plausible answer for how warm and fast it has become since September.

[sroc4]

Anybody know rb personally?  He has gone radio silent for a bit now. He didn't check in once leading up to this last storm.

I reached out to him yesterday. Haven’t heard back yet.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

I was thinking the same thing. Odd not to hear from him. I hope he is ok. I am sorry if this is banter.

quote="sroc4"]

Anybody know rb personally?  He has gone radio silent for a bit now. He didn't check in once leading up to this last storm.

I reached out to him yesterday. Haven’t heard back yet. [/quote]

[Irish]

The 22nd-24th time frame is showing another possible event.

[frank 638]

What? What do you guys think of this for March?

[jmanley32]

Bastardi just posted fri/sat 2-4 from PA to NYC to MA 20 to 30:1 ratios and locally 8 inches. I dont buy it. Its not go be that cold to see that kind of ratio.

[Frank_Wx]

Talking about the possible weekend storm in the February thread

[phil155]

Bastardi just posted fri/sat 2-4 from PA to NYC to MA 20 to 30:1 ratios and locally 8 inches. I dont buy it. Its not go be that cold to see that kind of ratio.

Bastardi tends to go to the extreme so for me if he is calling for that I would say for now 1-2 maybe 3 inches. On occasion Joe is on the money but to me his strong suit is pattern recognition more so tan individual events

[sroc4]

Bastardi just posted fri/sat 2-4 from PA to NYC to MA 20 to 30:1 ratios and locally 8 inches. I dont buy it. Its not go be that cold to see that kind of ratio.

No need to buy anything Jon. I believe he is making a broad general statement. Surface temps are mid to upper 20's to 30* on most models, with 925-850mb temps at or around -6 to -9 or less depending on the exact model and the exact time of day the precip moves in and where you live. This would absolutely produce high ratio snows as indicated by JB. His statement is not that far fetched at all and is more than reasonable. Your statement makes me think you are thinking he is speaking about your back yard specifically and that he is locked into that idea. Obv this is a general statement that has plenty of merit based on the current modeling.

[Irish]

The 22nd-24th looks a little too warm for area wide. I know it's too far out to really care about temps. However, after that event, we likely go toaster town for the start of March.

[sroc4]

The 22nd-24th looks a little too warm for area wide. I know it's too far out to really care about temps. However, after that event, we likely go toaster town for the start of March.

I am def going to respectfully disagree with these comments re 22-24th. The cold air source is still sitting just to our N. It will all depend on timing of the n/s and s/s energy. Remember this last one it was 50's and 60's on Saturday into Sunday. As long as the cold air is near by it can def happen.

Below is the euro ensembles at 850mb(5000ft) showing the only slight above normal temps around the 20th. Also look at the wind streams I drew in. Now Also look at the same time stamp but on the surface. Not that warm in our neck of the woods.





Now take a look at the 24th time frame same thing 850 and surface...back to plenty cold. Again its all about tyiming when the cold air source is nearby.

[amugs]

Very interesting thread on the flip of models overall for the upcoming period that was forecasted to be cold with an arctic intrusion and Greenland High and AK Ridge resulting in a N EPO. Time will tell but it looks as if the PV weakening was muted than previously forecasted only....2 days ago!!

It's not just GEFS that has seen such a monumental change -- and it has significant ramifications for meteorological variables such as 2m temperature. Greenland High favours cold, which has disappeared from the forecast https://t.co/0Pp3m44uJz

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024

But why has the stratospheric forecast shifted so much? Harder to answer, but one possibility is downward wave reflection. Over N America, the wave tilts eastward with height, with negative heat flux, suggestive of localised downward wave propagation. https://t.co/g9KVhHbwxT pic.twitter.com/ruVmI97HV0

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024

A somewhat similar shift can be seen in ECMWF's four Atlantic-European weather regimes, with the forecast shifting away from the NAO- regime (Greenland blocking) https://t.co/0eQMk3jox9

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024

What on Earth is going on here, then? One component is likely to be the stratospheric polar vortex: forecasts have shifted abruptly away from a significant & prolonged weakening of the vortex through the depth of the stratosphere, as shown here from GEFS via @burgwx. pic.twitter.com/XOauawOknI

— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024

[Irish]

The 22nd-24th looks a little too warm for area wide. I know it's too far out to really care about temps. However, after that event, we likely go toaster town for the start of March.

I am def going to respectfully disagree with these comments re 22-24th.  The cold air source is still sitting just to our N.  It will all depend on timing of the n/s and s/s energy.  Remember this last one it was 50's and 60's on Saturday into Sunday.  As long as the cold air is near by it can def happen.  

Below is the euro ensembles at 850mb(5000ft) showing the only slight above normal temps around the 20th.  Also look at the wind streams I drew in.   Now Also look at the same time stamp but on the surface.  Not that warm in our neck of the woods.  





Now take a look at the 24th time frame same thing 850 and surface...back to plenty cold.  Again its all about tyiming when the cold air source is nearby.

Hell, you don't even have to respectfully disagree!  I'm a totally newb at this, I hope we got it right on terms of temp and precip.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm curious and of course disappointed to the much anticipated pattern change we were hoping for in mid February. Is 7-10 days of normal temperatures followed by another above normal warm up pretty much it?

Why can't we ever sustain cold anymore? It's always a different reason why it never happens. The way above normal temperatures for the Wall/Wing months is getting out of control. I want normal temperatures back.

I probably should have posted this in banter, but it's also a long range forecast thing that never seems to happen.

[Irish]

I'm curious and of course disappointed to the much anticipated pattern change we were hoping for in mid February. Is 7-10 days of normal temperatures followed by another above normal warm up pretty much it?

Why can't we ever sustain cold anymore? It's always a different reason why it never happens. The way above normal temperatures for the Wall/Wing months is getting out of control. I want normal temperatures back.

I probably should have posted this in banter, but it's also a long range forecast thing that never seems to happen.

The answer has been discussed regardless if people want to believe it or not.

[heehaw453]

I'm curious and of course disappointed to the much anticipated pattern change we were hoping for in mid February. Is 7-10 days of normal temperatures followed by another above normal warm up pretty much it?

Why can't we ever sustain cold anymore? It's always a different reason why it never happens. The way above normal temperatures for the Wall/Wing months is getting out of control. I want normal temperatures back.

I probably should have posted this in banter, but it's also a long range forecast thing that never seems to happen.

IMO it's been almost 10 years (2014-15) since we had a solid meteorological winter. The reality is all 3 months will be sig AN temps this winter season. This pattern change I was cautious about going above 10 inches snowfall IMBY. Call still stands and it's why social media hype of Feb 2010 is really just that hype. Again not here, we have great guidance, sroc, rb, Frank, Mugs, etc. I've stated too many times atmospheric memory is a thing. Too much data shows strong correlation to December temps/snowfall to what you wind up with in a given winter season. It's not over, but I'm fairly certain I'm not getting 35" normal IMBY and fairly certain NYC is not getting 29".

[heehaw453]

Here were the SOI values leading up to the January 22 2016 blizzard which was the last basin wide Nino. Right after the storm occurred they started to increase considerably. Basically one month solid pressure differences that started to relax right after the storm. We're starting to see values increase on SOI now.  The second column is the day of the year so 1 is January 1 and 23 is January 23.


2016   1 1006.69 1009.00  -32.59
2016   2 1006.23 1009.80  -38.53
2016   3 1007.06 1009.65  -33.91
2016   4 1008.70 1010.60  -30.66
2016   5 1008.38 1011.65  -37.12
2016   6 1008.60 1011.15  -33.72
2016   7 1010.02 1011.45  -28.45
2016   8 1011.00 1011.65  -24.77
2016   9 1012.17 1012.25  -22.09
2016  10 1012.25 1012.65  -23.60
2016  11 1012.24 1012.25  -21.76
2016  12 1012.74 1011.90  -17.75
2016  13 1013.16 1012.10  -16.72
2016  14 1011.30 1011.25  -21.48
2016  15 1009.49 1010.10  -24.58
2016  16 1008.52 1009.05  -24.21
2016  17 1007.69 1009.90  -32.12
2016  18 1009.73 1009.35  -19.92
2016  19 1010.09 1010.00  -21.29
2016  20 1010.55 1010.55  -21.71
2016  21 1010.35 1010.85  -24.07
2016  22 1009.14 1010.50  -28.12
2016  23 1009.24 1010.10  -25.76
2016  24 1010.25 1009.55  -18.41
2016  25 1011.84 1009.10   -8.80
2016  26 1011.82 1009.40  -10.31
2016  27 1011.10 1009.60  -14.65
2016  28 1011.79 1009.60  -11.39
2016  29 1012.42 1008.70   -4.19
2016  30 1012.77 1007.65    2.41


2024  23 1010.69 1007.45   -6.45
2024  24 1011.85 1008.10   -4.05
2024  25 1011.37 1008.40   -7.72
2024  26 1012.20 1008.10   -2.40
2024  27 1011.41 1007.50   -3.29
2024  28 1010.40 1008.00  -10.41
2024  29 1009.71 1008.55  -16.25
2024  30 1009.93 1009.15  -18.04
2024  31 1009.49 1009.45  -21.52
2024  32 1007.27 1008.65  -29.40
2024  33 1006.85 1008.15  -29.01
2024  34 1007.67 1007.55  -22.19
2024  35 1008.30 1009.40  -28.05
2024  36 1007.06 1009.90  -36.41
2024  37 1005.56 1009.50  -41.69
2024  38 1005.31 1008.70  -39.05
2024  39 1005.88 1007.85  -32.23
2024  40 1003.50 1008.45  -46.54
2024  41 1005.61 1009.10  -39.53
2024  42 1005.21 1008.95  -40.73
2024  43 1005.08 1008.15  -37.51
2024  44 1007.06 1007.95  -27.04
2024  45 1008.61 1008.00  -19.84
2024  46 1010.51 1007.55   -8.55

[frank 638]

[sroc4]

22nd-24th still more than alive IMO

[amugs]

EURO says hello next Friday. Would be an absurd storm if true

[Frank_Wx]

Wow the set-up for next Friday is verrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry interesting



IF we can time that PNA spike just right, we could be in line for another major snowstorm. The key will be that bowling ball of a ULL in the eastern Pacific. Need that to stay offshore long enough to amplify the PNA ridge and time it with the polar jet energy. Another week of tracking!!!!!!! WOOOOO!!

[Frank_Wx]

22nd-24th still more than alive IMO

[Frank_Wx]

Things are developing favorably in the Stratosphere which bolds well for our storm chances next week. There is a significant warming event taking place this weekend through next week which will displace the Strat PV off the pole and become elongated into a very weak state. The result will be another arctic blast, which has the potential to sync up with the PNA spike I just spoke of. The end result is a Godzilla. Let's see if we can make this happen!

[Irish]

Things are developing favorably in the Stratosphere which bolds well for our storm chances next week. There is a significant warming event taking place this weekend through next week which will displace the Strat PV off the pole and become elongated into a very weak state. The result will be another arctic blast, which has the potential to sync up with the PNA spike I just spoke of. The end result is a Godzilla. Let's see if we can make this happen!

What is the target date for this possible event?  Still the 22nd - 24th?

[sroc4]

Things are developing favorably in the Stratosphere which bolds well for our storm chances next week. There is a significant warming event taking place this weekend through next week which will displace the Strat PV off the pole and become elongated into a very weak state. The result will be another arctic blast, which has the potential to sync up with the PNA spike I just spoke of. The end result is a Godzilla. Let's see if we can make this happen!

What is the target date for this possible event?  Still the 22nd - 24th?

I’d extend the date through 25th-26th maybe. I looked over night and there is a lot of different pieces to monitor. There is a chance that there could be one big chance or maybe two seperate chances depending on how these things all come together. For me for now I’m looking between 22nd-26th as the time frame.

[Frank_Wx]

Things are developing favorably in the Stratosphere which bolds well for our storm chances next week. There is a significant warming event taking place this weekend through next week which will displace the Strat PV off the pole and become elongated into a very weak state. The result will be another arctic blast, which has the potential to sync up with the PNA spike I just spoke of. The end result is a Godzilla. Let's see if we can make this happen!

What is the target date for this possible event?  Still the 22nd - 24th?

I’d extend the date through 25th-26th maybe. I looked over night and there is a lot of different pieces to monitor. There is a chance that there could be one big chance or maybe two seperate chances depending on how these things all come together. For me for now I’m looking between 22nd-26th as the time frame.

Agreed. I hope wave spacing doesn’t bite us here

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