Long Range Thread 28.0
Page 13 of 18 • 1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14 ... 18
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Join date : 2019-01-16
MattyICE likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Look at these hot spots off New Zealand and Eastern Australia. 3C above normal!! What's causing it?? Underwater Volcanoes some have surmised and it is a very plausible answer for how warm and fast it has become since September.
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 Screenshot_2024_02_13_at_1_56_43_PM](https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screenshot_2024_02_13_at_1_56_43_PM.png)
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Join date : 2013-01-07
docstox12 likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Irish wrote:Anybody know rb personally? He has gone radio silent for a bit now. He didn't check in once leading up to this last storm.
I reached out to him yesterday. Haven’t heard back yet.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
quote="sroc4"]
Irish wrote:Anybody know rb personally? He has gone radio silent for a bit now. He didn't check in once leading up to this last storm.
I reached out to him yesterday. Haven’t heard back yet. [/quote]
tomsriversnowstorm- Posts : 90
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
weatherwatchermom and SENJsnowman like this post
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2848
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20593
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
phil155 likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
![Smile](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_smile.gif)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
jmanley32 wrote:Bastardi just posted fri/sat 2-4 from PA to NYC to MA 20 to 30:1 ratios and locally 8 inches. I dont buy it. Its not go be that cold to see that kind of ratio.
Bastardi tends to go to the extreme so for me if he is calling for that I would say for now 1-2 maybe 3 inches. On occasion Joe is on the money but to me his strong suit is pattern recognition more so tan individual events
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 487
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
jmanley32 wrote:Bastardi just posted fri/sat 2-4 from PA to NYC to MA 20 to 30:1 ratios and locally 8 inches. I dont buy it. Its not go be that cold to see that kind of ratio.
No need to buy anything Jon. I believe he is making a broad general statement. Surface temps are mid to upper 20's to 30* on most models, with 925-850mb temps at or around -6 to -9 or less depending on the exact model and the exact time of day the precip moves in and where you live. This would absolutely produce high ratio snows as indicated by JB. His statement is not that far fetched at all and is more than reasonable. Your statement makes me think you are thinking he is speaking about your back yard specifically and that he is locked into that idea. Obv this is a general statement that has plenty of merit based on the current modeling.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Frank_Wx and amugs like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Irish wrote:The 22nd-24th looks a little too warm for area wide. I know it's too far out to really care about temps. However, after that event, we likely go toaster town for the start of March.
I am def going to respectfully disagree with these comments re 22-24th. The cold air source is still sitting just to our N. It will all depend on timing of the n/s and s/s energy. Remember this last one it was 50's and 60's on Saturday into Sunday. As long as the cold air is near by it can def happen.
Below is the euro ensembles at 850mb(5000ft) showing the only slight above normal temps around the 20th. Also look at the wind streams I drew in. Now Also look at the same time stamp but on the surface. Not that warm in our neck of the woods.
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 Ecmwf184](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/ecmwf184.png)
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 Ecmwf185](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/ecmwf185.png)
Now take a look at the 24th time frame same thing 850 and surface...back to plenty cold. Again its all about tyiming when the cold air source is nearby.
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 Ecmwf186](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/ecmwf186.png)
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 Ecmwf187](https://i.servimg.com/u/f63/18/49/18/50/ecmwf187.png)
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
It's not just GEFS that has seen such a monumental change -- and it has significant ramifications for meteorological variables such as 2m temperature. Greenland High favours cold, which has disappeared from the forecast https://t.co/0Pp3m44uJz
— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024
But why has the stratospheric forecast shifted so much? Harder to answer, but one possibility is downward wave reflection. Over N America, the wave tilts eastward with height, with negative heat flux, suggestive of localised downward wave propagation. https://t.co/g9KVhHbwxT pic.twitter.com/ruVmI97HV0
— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024
A somewhat similar shift can be seen in ECMWF's four Atlantic-European weather regimes, with the forecast shifting away from the NAO- regime (Greenland blocking) https://t.co/0eQMk3jox9
— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024
What on Earth is going on here, then? One component is likely to be the stratospheric polar vortex: forecasts have shifted abruptly away from a significant & prolonged weakening of the vortex through the depth of the stratosphere, as shown here from GEFS via @burgwx. pic.twitter.com/XOauawOknI
— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) February 14, 2024
Last edited by amugs on Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Hell, you don't even have to respectfully disagree! I'm a totally newb at this, I hope we got it right on terms of temp and precip.sroc4 wrote:Irish wrote:The 22nd-24th looks a little too warm for area wide. I know it's too far out to really care about temps. However, after that event, we likely go toaster town for the start of March.
I am def going to respectfully disagree with these comments re 22-24th. The cold air source is still sitting just to our N. It will all depend on timing of the n/s and s/s energy. Remember this last one it was 50's and 60's on Saturday into Sunday. As long as the cold air is near by it can def happen.
Below is the euro ensembles at 850mb(5000ft) showing the only slight above normal temps around the 20th. Also look at the wind streams I drew in. Now Also look at the same time stamp but on the surface. Not that warm in our neck of the woods.
Now take a look at the 24th time frame same thing 850 and surface...back to plenty cold. Again its all about tyiming when the cold air source is nearby.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
sroc4 and SENJsnowman like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Why can't we ever sustain cold anymore? It's always a different reason why it never happens. The way above normal temperatures for the Wall/Wing months is getting out of control. I want normal temperatures back.
I probably should have posted this in banter, but it's also a long range forecast thing that never seems to happen.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
docstox12, Koroptim, jmanley32 and heehaw453 like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
The answer has been discussed regardless if people want to believe it or not.CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm curious and of course disappointed to the much anticipated pattern change we were hoping for in mid February. Is 7-10 days of normal temperatures followed by another above normal warm up pretty much it?
Why can't we ever sustain cold anymore? It's always a different reason why it never happens. The way above normal temperatures for the Wall/Wing months is getting out of control. I want normal temperatures back.
I probably should have posted this in banter, but it's also a long range forecast thing that never seems to happen.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm curious and of course disappointed to the much anticipated pattern change we were hoping for in mid February. Is 7-10 days of normal temperatures followed by another above normal warm up pretty much it?
Why can't we ever sustain cold anymore? It's always a different reason why it never happens. The way above normal temperatures for the Wall/Wing months is getting out of control. I want normal temperatures back.
I probably should have posted this in banter, but it's also a long range forecast thing that never seems to happen.
IMO it's been almost 10 years (2014-15) since we had a solid meteorological winter. The reality is all 3 months will be sig AN temps this winter season. This pattern change I was cautious about going above 10 inches snowfall IMBY. Call still stands and it's why social media hype of Feb 2010 is really just that hype. Again not here, we have great guidance, sroc, rb, Frank, Mugs, etc. I've stated too many times atmospheric memory is a thing. Too much data shows strong correlation to December temps/snowfall to what you wind up with in a given winter season. It's not over, but I'm fairly certain I'm not getting 35" normal IMBY and fairly certain NYC is not getting 29".
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
CPcantmeasuresnow and MattyICE like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
2016 1 1006.69 1009.00 -32.59
2016 2 1006.23 1009.80 -38.53
2016 3 1007.06 1009.65 -33.91
2016 4 1008.70 1010.60 -30.66
2016 5 1008.38 1011.65 -37.12
2016 6 1008.60 1011.15 -33.72
2016 7 1010.02 1011.45 -28.45
2016 8 1011.00 1011.65 -24.77
2016 9 1012.17 1012.25 -22.09
2016 10 1012.25 1012.65 -23.60
2016 11 1012.24 1012.25 -21.76
2016 12 1012.74 1011.90 -17.75
2016 13 1013.16 1012.10 -16.72
2016 14 1011.30 1011.25 -21.48
2016 15 1009.49 1010.10 -24.58
2016 16 1008.52 1009.05 -24.21
2016 17 1007.69 1009.90 -32.12
2016 18 1009.73 1009.35 -19.92
2016 19 1010.09 1010.00 -21.29
2016 20 1010.55 1010.55 -21.71
2016 21 1010.35 1010.85 -24.07
2016 22 1009.14 1010.50 -28.12
2016 23 1009.24 1010.10 -25.76
2016 24 1010.25 1009.55 -18.41
2016 25 1011.84 1009.10 -8.80
2016 26 1011.82 1009.40 -10.31
2016 27 1011.10 1009.60 -14.65
2016 28 1011.79 1009.60 -11.39
2016 29 1012.42 1008.70 -4.19
2016 30 1012.77 1007.65 2.41
2024 23 1010.69 1007.45 -6.45
2024 24 1011.85 1008.10 -4.05
2024 25 1011.37 1008.40 -7.72
2024 26 1012.20 1008.10 -2.40
2024 27 1011.41 1007.50 -3.29
2024 28 1010.40 1008.00 -10.41
2024 29 1009.71 1008.55 -16.25
2024 30 1009.93 1009.15 -18.04
2024 31 1009.49 1009.45 -21.52
2024 32 1007.27 1008.65 -29.40
2024 33 1006.85 1008.15 -29.01
2024 34 1007.67 1007.55 -22.19
2024 35 1008.30 1009.40 -28.05
2024 36 1007.06 1009.90 -36.41
2024 37 1005.56 1009.50 -41.69
2024 38 1005.31 1008.70 -39.05
2024 39 1005.88 1007.85 -32.23
2024 40 1003.50 1008.45 -46.54
2024 41 1005.61 1009.10 -39.53
2024 42 1005.21 1008.95 -40.73
2024 43 1005.08 1008.15 -37.51
2024 44 1007.06 1007.95 -27.04
2024 45 1008.61 1008.00 -19.84
2024 46 1010.51 1007.55 -8.55
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2848
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny
SENJsnowman likes this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 1708711200-yBJZSQi4FcQ](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/vort500_z500/1708084800/1708711200-yBJZSQi4FcQ.png)
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 1708711200-VP6CZo57Qrk](https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1708084800/1708711200-VP6CZo57Qrk.png)
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Frank_Wx, richb521, billg315, SENJsnowman and Irish like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15095
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Frank_Wx, sroc4 and Irish like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_27](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024021618/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_27.png)
IF we can time that PNA spike just right, we could be in line for another major snowstorm. The key will be that bowling ball of a ULL in the eastern Pacific. Need that to stay offshore long enough to amplify the PNA ridge and time it with the polar jet energy. Another week of tracking!!!!!!! WOOOOO!!
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
sroc4, kalleg and Irish like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
sroc4 wrote:22nd-24th still more than alive IMO
![Long Range Thread 28.0 - Page 13 Ron-swanson-parks-and-rec](https://media1.tenor.com/m/aAsftu-ZFLUAAAAC/ron-swanson-parks-and-rec.gif)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
sroc4, kalleg and jmanley32 like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
sroc4, kalleg, essexcountypete, jmanley32 and Irish like this post
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
What is the target date for this possible event? Still the 22nd - 24th?Frank_Wx wrote:Things are developing favorably in the Stratosphere which bolds well for our storm chances next week. There is a significant warming event taking place this weekend through next week which will displace the Strat PV off the pole and become elongated into a very weak state. The result will be another arctic blast, which has the potential to sync up with the PNA spike I just spoke of. The end result is a Godzilla. Let's see if we can make this happen!
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
Irish wrote:What is the target date for this possible event? Still the 22nd - 24th?Frank_Wx wrote:Things are developing favorably in the Stratosphere which bolds well for our storm chances next week. There is a significant warming event taking place this weekend through next week which will displace the Strat PV off the pole and become elongated into a very weak state. The result will be another arctic blast, which has the potential to sync up with the PNA spike I just spoke of. The end result is a Godzilla. Let's see if we can make this happen!
I’d extend the date through 25th-26th maybe. I looked over night and there is a lot of different pieces to monitor. There is a chance that there could be one big chance or maybe two seperate chances depending on how these things all come together. For me for now I’m looking between 22nd-26th as the time frame.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8389
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: Long Range Thread 28.0
sroc4 wrote:Irish wrote:What is the target date for this possible event? Still the 22nd - 24th?Frank_Wx wrote:Things are developing favorably in the Stratosphere which bolds well for our storm chances next week. There is a significant warming event taking place this weekend through next week which will displace the Strat PV off the pole and become elongated into a very weak state. The result will be another arctic blast, which has the potential to sync up with the PNA spike I just spoke of. The end result is a Godzilla. Let's see if we can make this happen!
I’d extend the date through 25th-26th maybe. I looked over night and there is a lot of different pieces to monitor. There is a chance that there could be one big chance or maybe two seperate chances depending on how these things all come together. For me for now I’m looking between 22nd-26th as the time frame.
Agreed. I hope wave spacing doesn’t bite us here
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Page 13 of 18 • 1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14 ... 18
|
|