February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:JMAN need a 20 mile Shift SE by 850 and 700.mb LP.

Think we can get there mugs? EPS says so, wow and thats the blend, id like to see the extreme members lol. I am still doubting this but it is looking better and better than it was days ago and we are basically within a little over 24 hrs.

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

All of the above possible but add in subsidence. In our very large forum area we will probably have some areas experience at least several of the items you mentioned.

aiannone wrote:

aiannone wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z EPS Closed off ULL as storm is hitting the coast. wow. wow. wow. wow.

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

aiannone wrote:0z HRRR

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

Frank_Wx wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z EPS Closed off ULL as storm is hitting the coast. wow. wow. wow. wow.

MADONNE!!!

MattyICE wrote:I’m very encouraged by these trends - but am I the only one who feels like it’s tenuous??  I’m just trying to think of ways it can fail - the southern shift is real but an over correction and snaps back a bit? A sneaky warm nose that leads to a sleet fest?  An unforeseen dry slot? A sloppy phase and the best dynamics slip east?  I should think less, but we’ve just been burned a lot recently. Huge 0Z suite and what’s all about, I guess!!  

Hints of an area of subsidence on some models. Other than that, a shift back north would be our biggest threat.

aiannone wrote:0z HRRR

M A D O N N E ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Frank_Wx wrote:BIGGEST 00z NAM RUN SINCE BOXING DAY

MAYBE NOT SARCASM

aiannone wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:BIGGEST 00z NAM RUN SINCE BOXING DAY

MAYBE NOT SARCASM

Remember several years back we had Nam run during Super Bowl that suddenly turned a non event into a full out snowstorm and everything followed. Was a great 8-10” storm. Can’t remember the year but I clearly remember it happening on superbowl.