February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

What consistency snow is this going to be, if we even know?

My gosh look at the snowfall rate, you rarely see purple, from NE NJ into CT.

I'm along I-78 and with temps like this, 1-3 is most likely.  The NWS says Sussex and the Poconos will get the near foot snow.  And South NYS I assume.

NWS has me for 2-4 inches Mon night then Tues 6-10 inches. I have been poking around about this storm and maybe it is getting a bit bigger than first expected at least around these here parts. Doc and CP: 1-3 inches, and Tues 6-10 inches

(and Thursday is starting to look good too)

00z RGEM



00z ICON

Frank_Wx wrote:00z RGEM



00z ICON

We have the best consistency across SR models on this as I have seen in a while wow, the only extreme outlier with godzilla amounts widespread is the hrrr

I am not buying 1-4 for here (though my reporting station is JFK so that is a hige difference in terms of where the heaviest snow falls), thats what NWS says, I think they way up it after tonights or in 12z tomorrow holds.

NJBear wrote:I'm along I-78 and with temps like this, 1-3 is most likely.  The NWS says Sussex and the Poconos will get the near foot snow.  And South NYS I assume.

I promise you if these trends continue overnight that WILL change.

HREFS!!!!!!

00z GFS

Frank_Wx wrote:

Is this pushing on the godzilla door? Wow, I am so surprised all the models are on this like a hawk and each that comes in is higher than the next, dont think north of NYC even NYC itself sees less than 6 with a much heigher ceiling than that. I fully expect a warning tomorow with these runs. Your opinion?

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Is this pushing on the godzilla door? Wow, I am so surprised all the models are on this like a hawk and each that comes in is higher than the next, dont think north of NYC even NYC itself sees less than 6 with a much heigher ceiling than that. I fully expect a warning tomorow with these runs. Your opinion?

When the GFS outputs that much qpf it definitely raises my eyebrows. The Canadian is coming in now and it looks just as juicy. Godzilla criteria not out of the question

Frank_Wx wrote:

Wow LI jackpots ha! Thats a different look, further push south?10-12 IMBY verbatim, sign me up.

This is a big deal. Look at the n/s pushing in faster and further south on GFS. It keeps doing this run over run. the more that n/s digs the further south the axis of heavy snow gets.

While I have no doubt many people will see this much snow fall from the sky I am not sure that this much will accumulate. Temps will be marginal and a lot of places will see rain at the onset which I think will hold accumulations down a bit

phil155 wrote:While I have no doubt many people will see this much snow fall from the sky I am not sure that this much will accumulate. Temps will be marginal and a lot of places will see rain at the onset which I think will hold accumulations down  a bit

Yes it is supposed to be a balmy 50 here tomorrow, so we are really going to need temps to crash and a all out blitz of snowfall.

phil155 wrote:While I have no doubt many people will see this much snow fall from the sky I am not sure that this much will accumulate. Temps will be marginal and a lot of places will see rain at the onset which I think will hold accumulations down  a bit

This is my hesitation for labeling this a Godzilla. I would like to see what 12z runs look like tomorrow. But Mothrazilla looks like a lock..especially N&W.

At this point, the colder more south trend is not really a trend anymore. Been this way since last night really. Almost all the models are in the same page atm. Still time for changes overnight and in the morning, and nothing is set in stone as models will waffle as they do, but if there isn’t a major shift by tomorrow midday, I think everywhere north of I—195 in NJ is getting accumulating snow of at least a few inches and NNJ into NYC/LI could flirt with double digits. Ratios may keep some of these totals lower as it is a wet snow. If sleet mixes in your area that also could keep totals down. I would say to keep that in mind and it’s why I think some of these numbers may be a smidge too high. But the totals on these maps are such that you’d still get decent accumulation even taking that into account.

Temps at the time of the storm are forecast to be near or just above freezing. It being 48 or even 50 degrees at 3 pm tomorrow means nothing as the storm arrives after midnight. If temps are in the mid-30s at the outset that could hinder any light snow from sticking but by 6 am temps are forecast 32-34 in NNJ. With those temps if snowfall rates are heavy, it will stick.

A word of caution and from past experience, staring at all of these snowfall maps, some of them may get so ridiculous that the storm itself could start to be a letdown. Just let it happen however it's going to be. At the last minute it will unfold one way or the other, positive or negative, or as depicted, but enjoy the moment and the storm,however it unfolds, more than the maps.

If I had to make a rough off the cuff call at the moment I’d say:
Burlington/Southern Monmouth/Ocean: 1-2”
Mercer/Middlesex/northern Monmouth: 2-4” locally 5”.
Hunterdon/Somerset/Morris/Union/Hudson/Eastern Bergen/NYC/LI: 4-8”
Warren/Sussex/Passaic/Western Bergen/LHV:6-10” locally a foot.

I agree. Reading the models and the maps is looking at the label on the jar. That’s not the same as tasting the peanut butter on the bread/enjoying the moment/enjoying the storm.