February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

If I had to make a rough off the cuff call at the moment I’d say:
Burlington/Southern Monmouth/Ocean: 1-2”
Mercer/Middlesex/northern Monmouth: 2-4” locally 5”.
Hunterdon/Somerset/Morris/Union/Hudson/Eastern Bergen/NYC/LI: 4-8”
Warren/Sussex/Passaic/Western Bergen/LHV:6-10” locally a foot.

I agree. Reading the models and the maps is looking at the label on the jar. That’s not the same as tasting the peanut butter on the bread/enjoying the moment/enjoying the storm.

If there is sleet mixing in during this that will play havoc with the forecast maps in those locales. Many times I’ve seen the snowfall maps not account well for sleet which can really reduce the accumulation numbers.

7/8:1 ratios will be near  city n coast

If the storm goes the way I believe it will the northern stream is going to flip rain2snow quickly for those areas that are in that scenario. It's the of WAA snows where the warm tongue comes in usually strong than modelled at some layer where that battle rages. My guess is changeovers to snow will be faster than modelled as long as I continue to see the n/s dive into this storm. Definitely need to see this hold tomorrow, but we're getting live data in these models now so I expect some change but hopefully not too drastic.

billg315 wrote:If I had to make a rough off the cuff call at the moment I’d say:
Burlington/Southern Monmouth/Ocean: 1-2”
Mercer/Middlesex/northern Monmouth: 2-4” locally 5”.
Hunterdon/Somerset/Morris/Union/Hudson/Eastern Bergen/NYC/LI: 4-8”
Warren/Sussex/Passaic/Western Bergen/LHV:6-10” locally a foot.

I think you missed a county

essexcountypete wrote:

billg315 wrote:If I had to make a rough off the cuff call at the moment I’d say:
Burlington/Southern Monmouth/Ocean: 1-2”
Mercer/Middlesex/northern Monmouth: 2-4” locally 5”.
Hunterdon/Somerset/Morris/Union/Hudson/Eastern Bergen/NYC/LI: 4-8”
Warren/Sussex/Passaic/Western Bergen/LHV:6-10” locally a foot.

I think you missed a county

Yikes. lol. Like I said, off the cuff. Put Essex in 4-8”

Euro is a bomb!

nutleyblizzard wrote:

And that looks further south and east. My area in CNJ was 2-5 and on there it's a foot. How realistic is that?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
303 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-122115-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.240213T0900Z-240213T2300Z/
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
303 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

*ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts will depend on how quickly
rain transitions over to snow. At this time, this looks to be
around daybreak Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Upgraded to winter storm watches and warnings

06z NAM

Money shot

Frank_Wx wrote:06z NAM

wow. And big wow to euro. Unleash beast if euro verified. Warning issued 7 to 10 after seeing these runs tgat may be too low, but 7 to 10 i better crack out the shovels from storage tonight. Hope that isnt a jinx. If i dont i wont be able to get them.

Going to OOTI until this model madness ends. It's driving many to the brink of insanity. We follow these models as if they're clairvoyant and they just toy with us. They were programmed to destroy the sanity of all snow weenies and they're good at their job.

There’s a - what *COULD BE* - a nod back to the north track happening. Although the 6z NAM was south, the latest HRRR and 6z Icon bumped the low back to the north. This puts NYC out of major snowfall, while everyone south of there sees little to no accumulation.  

This will either be a Boston or NYC major snowstorm. I don’t think it can be both. And that obviously has effects on how this evolves for all the surrounding areas.

Frank_Wx wrote:There’s a - what *COULD BE* - a nod back to the north track happening. Although the 6z NAM was south, the latest HRRR and 6z Icon bumped the low back to the north. This puts NYC out of major snowfall, while everyone south of there sees little to no accumulation.  

The 06z GFS is actually even FURTHER south than the 00z run. So now you have HUGE discrepancies between this statement I made regarding some short range models with the global models like the GFS and EURO. Can’t believe how far south the snow got on this GFS run

Doesn’t think it goes that far south but nyC game on win or lose

NEAR BLIZZARD TO POUND NYC NJ Up to 10"
heavy wet snow and 40mph wind gusts

Storm made sudden big change on models
*******. *****. Alert **********. *********Alert

Folks, the storm that looked like it was going to miss New York City, which is a small amount of snow, meaning one or two, but most 3 in snow looks like it made a big change and sometimes things like this happen and although the storm will not be a mega storm like if Lindsay's snow storm or the blizzard 1983, we are talking about a heavier snowfall and it could be pretty impressive now, even around New York City.

Now we're talking about a moderste to heavy wet snowfall and how much snow is going to fall?Well. Whether you get 5 in of snow or 8 in snow or 10 inches of snow, it will come down heavy enough so you can call it a heavy snowfall.

What are the aspects of the storm? That's interesting. Is the fact that there could be wind gusts to 40 mph and with the snow coming down even though it's not going to be a fine powdery snow to be mostly a heavy wet snow it could create near blizzard conditions.

This storm is specifically oriented to the east coast, not the Midwest, not the south and not north way into New England. Right now it's kind of like a New York City special.

Any interesting thing about it is it's not coming during the severe cold wave. The cold wave that hit the Midwest into the Northeast earlier in January could have done a job for all areas like this and better but it didn't now. Here's the storm. How is the moisture now? Here's the intensification so in the way this is kind of like a mini Lindsay's snow storm as you would call it like a shadow of it.

So the big change is that we all know it was going to snow. We all assume the storm is going to be a little bit north and miss New York City , but still gives New York City a few inches of snow. But now the axis of the snow is changing and we're lying in a southern quadrant giving New York City heavier snow and a much better chance to have bigger accumulations rather than lesser and that does happen when you're looking at weather days away


What’s are y’all thoughts

Morris County has a Winter Storm Warning for 7-10 inches.  Trying to keep my expectations in check.

In my area of NJ Winter Storm Warning now up from Mount Holly:
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PMEST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Locally higher amounts possible over the highest elevations, particularly northern Hunterdon County.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon. In Pennsylvania, Berks and Upper Bucks.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Particularly heavy snowfall will be possible around the time of the morning commute, with snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &&

Here’s my best rudimentary explanation of this. So what we’re seeing on the models is an evolution in storm type which is why some models (Euro GFS and NAM) are so different in south extent and orientation of snow from 24 -36 hours ago and even some other models this morning.
Originally this storm was going to spread rain in as it approached from the southwest, with snow further north where it was colder. Then as it pulled away from the coast cold air would come in behind it and turn rain to snow from north to south on the backside. Hence heavier totals north where it was mainly snow and little snow far south where the change to snow happened too late as the storm was leaving.
Yesterday the models evolved to a strengthening storm that was further south, which did two things A brought colder air further south, B allowed heavier precip on the backside as it pulled way. This shifted the precip area south and increased the duration of snow for some areas on the backend, hence the gradual south trend in the snowfield yesterday on the models.
What you are seeing now is, the storm on these models is essentially bombing out as it gets off the coast and this is slowing its departure, reorienting the heaviest precip on its backside as it intensifies and develops heavy wrap around snows and colder air. In other words, a classic coastal storm. What this has done is reorient the snow field more SW to NE on the backside drawing heavy snow south on the storms western flank, and then running it northeast with the new storm track.
This is why areas like Philly and interior SNJ are now getting heavy snow while areas to the far north are more on the borderline. This then brings the heavy axis of snow northeast through NJ into NYC/LI and eventually NE. It also may allow some accumulating backend snow at SNJ shore as it pulls away.
What are the caveats?
1. These snow maps are dependent on the storm exiting south of Cape May and bombing out off the coast slowing it down and reorienting the precip field. If it comes back north, and is over or too close to NJ rain and sleet will mix in even if it intensifies and the mixing will result in lower totals;
2. If the intensification is delayed the higher totals you see may shift northeast leaving more modest amounts especially south and west.

So there is still tracking to be done today. Keep expectations in-check as the exact timing and location of the intensifying Low is not locked in yet..

I also should add as a third caveat as the storm takes on a classic wrap around, rotating bands look, some dry slotting could develop somewhere.

If this works out thank the n/s. It's truly the reason why this has a chance. It's been digging more south run2run.

Last night's Euro h3 jet.