Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions

by **rb924119** Tue Nov 12, 2024 9:53 am

heehaw453 wrote:Had .33" of much needed rain! Would love more but probably not anytime soon.

On another note, very impressive push of anomalously warm air past 80 degrees N. It won't last obviously but believe that will be a common theme this season. Lots of WAR/SER ridging heat pumps.

Build that blocking baby lol I was talking to sroc about this the other day; our blocking events since August have not been your typical progression. Instead of initiating over Europe and then backing westward all the way into the EPO domain over the span of two to three weeks, we’ve seen, and basis latest guidance, will continue to see initiation in the western domain, and then essentially hold position, maybe back westward a little bit toward Hudson Bay, and then decay. IF this trend can continue, it could lead to some opportunities for explosive events this winter. Granted, the behavior of the Pacific needs to be watched, and questions about the orientation of the NAO blocking need to be answered (i.e. does it link with the Southeast Ridge like it did last year, or, does it help to compress the flow and set up a confluent flow which forces a lot of Miller-B type events?). Even though I haven’t looked yet, this does give me some hope for an overall better season (not that that’s saying too much compared to the last two seasons aha). But you get my point lol

by **billg315** Tue Nov 12, 2024 10:26 am

Chillier air has settled in it appears. Windy this morning and temps will probably top out around 53* around here before dipping into the upper 20s/low 30s tonight. High temps might not get out of the 40s in some spots on Thursday.

by **heehaw453** Tue Nov 12, 2024 10:50 am

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Had .33" of much needed rain! Would love more but probably not anytime soon.

On another note, very impressive push of anomalously warm air past 80 degrees N. It won't last obviously but believe that will be a common theme this season. Lots of WAR/SER ridging heat pumps.

Build that blocking baby lol I was talking to sroc about this the other day; our blocking events since August have not been your typical progression. Instead of initiating over Europe and then backing westward all the way into the EPO domain over the span of two to three weeks, we’ve seen, and basis latest guidance, will continue to see initiation in the western domain, and then essentially hold position, maybe back westward a little bit toward Hudson Bay, and then decay. IF this trend can continue, it could lead to some opportunities for explosive events this winter. Granted, the behavior of the Pacific needs to be watched, and questions about the orientation of the NAO blocking need to be answered (i.e. does it link with the Southeast Ridge like it did last year, or, does it help to compress the flow and set up a confluent flow which forces a lot of Miller-B type events?). Even though I haven’t looked yet, this does give me some hope for an overall better season (not that that’s saying too much compared to the last two seasons aha). But you get my point lol

and questions about the orientation of the NAO blocking need to be answered (i.e. does it link with the Southeast Ridge like it did last year,

Nice Rb and always appreciate your insights! It's actually been past few years I've seen the meridional ridge bridge to the HL. Until I see these SST come down in the Atlantic I'm skeptical. Feel we need to wait until well in to January this year.

by **rb924119** Tue Nov 12, 2024 9:27 pm

Yeah, I can't disagree with your first point - it was certainly a theme last year, although I don't think we had the blocking in the '22-'23 season that we did last year, and that it appears* that we could again this year. To your second point, it's certainly a valid concern, but I don't think it's a "be all, end all" component. We were right on track up until December, and then it wasn't the Atlantic ridge fueled by the anomalous warmth that killed us, but the progression of the tropical Pacific, and more specifically, the evolution of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. I believe Scott (sroc) had a really good post about this in a post-mortem post, but the water in that area absolutely torched, which allowed the MJO to essentially get phase locked into highly unfavorable phases for our winter season with amplitude. Had that not happened, I feel very confident that it would have been a pretty great winter. As I said earlier, I haven't looked at how things are progressing currently, but my earlier thoughts (which busted pretty poorly for the mid-October to mid-November period, admittedly) were not too dissimilar to yours in that I think the bulk of our winter weather this year will occur in February and March (as I was leaning toward a similar phase locking of the MJO in unfavorable phases starting the winter off warm, but then leading to an auspicious stratospheric warming event similar to the '17-'18 evolution). However, I am SERIOUSLY considering the period from the 19th-23rd of this month for a potential high-impact event, though whether it's wet or white, I haven't been able to sit down and look at yet. So, we could get off to a fast start with quite a bang if the details look as good as the broader picture.

Regardless of all of the above, it's great to actually see more frequent posts, more members posting and fostering discussion, and, just as importantly, be back tracking again!

by **billg315** Wed Nov 13, 2024 9:23 am

Low of 29* this morning. Winter coat out of storage. And that strong north wind has brought the smoke down to Central Jersey. Very smokey odor in the air this morning.

by **heehaw453** Wed Nov 13, 2024 9:54 am

25.7 this morning for low. I must say i am enjoying the dry weather...

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:06 am

Sunny and low of 35*this morning currently 48*

by **brownie** Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:39 pm

Very bad smoke here when I got home around 4:45 pm. It was visible in the tops of the trees, and the horrible burning smell hung heavily in the air.

by kalleg Wed Nov 13, 2024 6:19 pm

Hoping everyone is outside the fire areas; this is a more than troubling time with so little rain over so many days/weeks.

Kalle

by **heehaw453** Thu Nov 14, 2024 8:42 am

23.2 was low this morning before cloud cover stopped the radiational cooling.

Central Park dropped below 40 (37) for first time this November. The NYC suburbs in NJ dropped below freezing first time this November, e.g., New Brunswick 29.

by **rb924119** Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:13 am

18° here this morning. Nice!!

by **billg315** Thu Nov 14, 2024 9:51 am

28* this morning with clear skies being replaced by cloud cover around daybreak. Definitely had a more "late Fall/wintry" feel. Actually we may not have been that far off from having our first snow event today in north and west areas, but things just didn't come together. Would have been nice just to have gotten some cold rain at this point.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Nov 14, 2024 1:27 pm

35 for the low this morning with cloudy skies currently

by **amugs** Thu Nov 14, 2024 1:47 pm

31* for me low brrrr!!

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Nov 14, 2024 2:50 pm

29* here this morning. Putting the heat on at night and opening the door during the day! (Our apartment faces south so we get a lot of heat from the sun midday). Hanging out in shorts and tshirts when I'm home. geek

by **billg315** Thu Nov 14, 2024 3:19 pm

47* and Cloudy here. Sun just visible through the altostratus layer. Looking at all the rain on the radar just to our west and south in PA, VA and MD hard to believe we aren't getting any precipitation from this system, but alas, that appears to be the case.

by **jmanley32** Thu Nov 14, 2024 5:11 pm

This drought is really bad. Worst in 160 years as of today. NYC has battled 229 fires in 3 weeks in the 5 boroughs, thats crazy and Inwood Park had 200 acres burn today, which is a large part of it. Also sickly a LI fire fighter admitted to setting one of the bigger fires. Sick just sick. Hired to put out fires but enjoys starting them, as a therapist I even have a hard time understanding this. He will go away for a long time especially with all the restrictions in place. If we do not see rain and nothing significant in the 10 day unless Sara somehow impacts us. But even then I read that we would need weeks of a steady moderate rain to reset the drought.

by **frank 638** Thu Nov 14, 2024 5:45 pm

November 2024 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 Img_0510

When was the last time we seen a drought like this !! Maybe next Thursday we will see rain

by **sroc4** Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:This drought is really bad. Worst in 160 years as of today. NYC has battled 229 fires in 3 weeks in the 5 boroughs, thats crazy and Inwood Park had 200 acres burn today, which is a large part of it. Also sickly a LI fire fighter admitted to setting one of the bigger fires. Sick just sick. Hired to put out fires but enjoys starting them, as a therapist I even have a hard time understanding this. He will go away for a long time especially with all the restrictions in place. If we do not see rain and nothing significant in the 10 day unless Sara somehow impacts us. But even then I read that we would need weeks of a steady moderate rain to reset the drought.

Where did you get that worst in 160 year stat from? And what location are you referring too? NYC or NY or NE or CONUS?

by **sroc4** Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:29 pm

Droughts conditions from just a few years starting with 2024(current conditions), 2012, 1956, 1934, 1931...images top to bottom. There is no doubt things are less than ideal, and even severe in some areas, but its been worse for sure. You can play here at this site: https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=1&selectedDateUSDM=20240924&selectedDateSpi=20240901

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by **sroc4** Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:37 pm

Here is 1966. This one was much worse in the NE and our area in particular than current. Don't let the hyperbole in the media get to ya. Wink

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by **docstox12** Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:06 am

sroc4 wrote:Here is 1966. This one was much worse in the NE and our area in particular than current. Don't let the hyperbole in the media get to ya.

I remember that one.We disconnected the drain spouts half way down and put barrels to catch any water in a quick shower to use to water plants.There was a picture in the Daily News of the Pepacton Reservoir in NY State almost devoid of water.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Nov 16, 2024 12:03 pm

Good news coming next week. Looks like most of the area will see 1-1.5" of rain. Still a long way to go, but the pattern looks to be changing to a wetter pattern. November 2024 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 1f443

November 2024 Observations & Discussions - Page 2 1f443

by **docstox12** Sat Nov 16, 2024 12:22 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Good news coming next week. Looks like most of the area will see 1-1.5" of rain. Still a long way to go, but the pattern looks to be changing to a wetter pattern.

Praise the Lord and pass the rain gauges!! Read they are getting the fires in West Milford under control but this wind today may cause troubles.Praying it does not.

59 degrees, sunny and windy.Red flag warnings all over.Would rather it was the red they use for a Blizzard on the NWS map!

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 16, 2024 1:05 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This drought is really bad. Worst in 160 years as of today. NYC has battled 229 fires in 3 weeks in the 5 boroughs, thats crazy and Inwood Park had 200 acres burn today, which is a large part of it. Also sickly a LI fire fighter admitted to setting one of the bigger fires. Sick just sick. Hired to put out fires but enjoys starting them, as a therapist I even have a hard time understanding this. He will go away for a long time especially with all the restrictions in place. If we do not see rain and nothing significant in the 10 day unless Sara somehow impacts us. But even then I read that we would need weeks of a steady moderate rain to reset the drought.

Where did you get that worst in 160 year stat from? And what location are you referring too? NYC or NY or NE or CONUS?

Many news outlets. The 160 years is for the NYC area, I think specifically NYC. Sorry yeah no not CONUS. Sw your post about not letting the news hype, but that would then just be a flat out lie? They have to have gotten that from somewhere. On the scare currently we are in the severe color with the NWS or whoever covers drought conditions. Lots of fires is the biggest issue but NYC saying they will be issuing a warning which would put some restrictions on water and they are considering opening one reservoir that is being worked on to be able to bring more water down state. I saw a article that stated the reservoir upstate (one of them) is at 1/3rd capacity, that seems pretty bad to me.

by **dkodgis** Sat Nov 16, 2024 9:19 pm

Two acres are burning down the road from me. So many firefighters already fighting the brushfires elsewhere here in Orange county and right at the NJ boarder. Until we get some rain, it's a tinderbox. Bill, I read your post about the rain coming. Great!

As an aside, I was I think going into 7th grade...1966...a hot summer...and hearing the news that the Alabama governor, George Wallace was asking people to pray to a higher power for rain. I remember that surprised me at 12 years old to hear that on the radio. It seemed like an end-of-the-world thing. Doc was probably shifting his three-on-the-tree car/van and listening to Sha Na Na (I was out on the back roads).

by **docstox12** Sat Nov 16, 2024 10:06 pm

dkodgis wrote:Two acres are burning down the road from me. So many firefighters already fighting the brushfires elsewhere here in Orange county and right at the NJ boarder. Until we get some rain, it's a tinderbox. Bill, I read your post about the rain coming. Great!

As an aside, I was I think going into 7th grade...1966...a hot summer...and hearing the news that the Alabama governor, George Wallace was asking people to pray to a higher power for rain. I remember that surprised me at 12 years old to hear that on the radio. It seemed like an end-of-the-world thing. Doc was probably shifting his three-on-the-tree car/van and listening to Sha Na Na (I was out on the back roads).

Damian, getting alerts on my cell fires down near Greenwood Lake NY-NJ border voluntary evacuations.Your right, the woods have a carpet of dried leaves, it's a tinderbox alright.
Got my license Feb 1968 and drove a three on the tree Ford van delivering flowers part time in High School.Nothing like the smell of burning asbestos holding the van on a hill for a red light,lol.

48 degrees, clear, windy.

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