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First snow of the season for parts of the area on Friday!

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

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NJ Strong Weather Forum  :: NJ Strong Weather Discussions :: Storm Archives

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March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs Empty March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:19 pm

Here is my final call snow map

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs 10257816_899113773473716_4733806287635258293_n

The changeover from rain or mixed precipitation to snow should occur in NYC around Midnight. Probably closer to 10pm-11pm for those N&W. This is a highly volatile forecast due to the lack of confidence in temperatures. If it takes longer than expected to changeover, specifically for those in central/southern NJ, then these amounts would be on the lower end of their ranges. The mid-level trough tracking into the northeast will collide with a southwesterly flow to produce precipitation. The best lift will be concentrated to those north of the baroclinic zone, but given the upper air dynamics, H7 VV's will spread as far north as the lower Hudson Valley area. There may be break in the action mid to late morning Thursday but a second wave should develop along the front and bring additional snowfall around Noon to mid-afternoon.

Use this thread for observations

Happy tracking!


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:02 am; edited 5 times in total

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March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs Empty Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:21 pm

Currently 47.8....50s maybe 10 miles to my south...
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:22 pm

Look where R/S line is out west
March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs Nerad25
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Post by Guest Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:25 pm

Quietace is a nice kid. A little blunt. Sometimes sarcastic, but not derogatory in any way. Relax everyone!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:29 pm

Ace we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:30 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:31 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....

Thank you Ace.And with that said do you think we see the numbers projected
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:31 pm

Nice map, 5-9 is more than I expected you to show, I hope I hit the higher end or at least 6-7. Ace, see banter, no problem : )
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:33 pm

Latest SREFS bumped north again! My town is near the edge of the 1.00 line. C'mon models keep chugging north!!!
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Post by Quietace Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:35 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....

Thank you Ace.And with that said do you think we see the numbers projected
Absolutely
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:38 pm

Quietace wrote:Look where R/S line is out west
March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs Nerad25

Is that placement a good or a bad thing? Not really sure what you are pointing out.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:46 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....

Thank you Ace.And with that said do you think we see the numbers projected
Absolutely

Thanks Ace
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:51 pm

One other thing how can we track the cold air and where it is currently?
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Post by amugs Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:53 pm

Frank great map - was expecting as I have said all along 4-8" and I feel that IF the get the frontal boundary to tick north we may see the higher end of this amount. The dynamics are going to be great and once again just north of the r/s line it will puke snow - if you are under that line you will see what I mean.

The models are starting to pick up on these dynamics and the moisture fetch that Rb  and Frank were discussing earlier this week. This has very good potential and will be a HAPPY ENDING for just about everyone on this forum.

Onto meoscale models for updates here peeps and I forget who it was that said "bust" but that is just pure trolling and  ignorance IMO after all the information posted and discussed. A bust is Juno for those of us in Juno who received next to nothing

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Post by Taffy Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:56 pm

Anyone else out there that can't see the map?
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:57 pm

Frank, the BLACK zone is the best (featuring a one Boston, Massachusetts) Twisted Evil

Great map. Awaiting Upton Update.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:57 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:One other thing how can we track the cold air and where it is currently?

Use Wunderground skins... if you use the WonderMap there are options you can add like frontal boundaries and weather stations.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.2&lon=-75.9&zoom=6&rad=1&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0

On the right side, click on weather stations and fronts. Gives you an idea where things are at. I don't know why it doesn't show up here


Last edited by Dunnzoo on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:57 pm

Thank you Frank for keeping us informed...and doing so much juggling with really 2 careers!!..heres to everyone being safe and enjoying a March snow storm...I enjoy the thrill of watching all the weather banter, having enough snow for a snowman/sledride,and one last snow day to spend with my child!!..ps..currently 42 and raining.
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:58 pm

Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:03 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.

Me either.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:05 pm

I have no problem seeing it

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:05 pm

18z NAM says 'oh holllllld up one second...'
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Post by HEATMISER Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:06 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:18z NAM says 'oh holllllld up one second...'
In a good way or bad way!!

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:07 pm

5" of snow would put NYC at 40". FWIW, Boston needs 2" to break their seasonal snow record.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:08 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.

essexcountypete wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.

Me either.

How about now?

March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs Untitled

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