Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[jmanley32]

12z euro too with what looks like miller a maybe a ctter but it spawns 2 lp one right after other same time frame. Another halloween ruined? Could cold coincide with this and get entrenched enough to pull off like a few yes ago. I know I asked earlier but was just curious if this go be a possible rain noreaster or could it snow even down to coast like 2011. Union I hope you are right. I don't remember so in October 2009. Not significant like in 2011 anyways.

[jmanley32]

I realize too it may not materialize.

[jmanley32]

GFS has a massive cutter that cuts itself off and drifts east.

cmc also...

yeah like 4 to 6 inches of rain and high winds fun. This time of year no I want a snowstorm lol

[UnionWX]

Chilly shot possible next week, and possibly a chilly November.. November 97' was very chilly, but so was last year. Just got to follow the models, and see what happens.

[nutleyblizzard]

Only six more weeks till meteorological winter folks! Can't wait for frank's winter forecast!

[sabamfa]

Any thoughts on Halloween so far? My parents have a big outdoor party and recently we have had pretty terrible weather that has impacted it in one way or another...

[amugs]

STJ going to flex it's muscle, showed the AO looking to go negative and Mjo going phase 1 into 2, NAO neutral to slight negative and a trough in th east next week. Things are going to get intetesting going forward and models will struggle with the atmospheric mechanisms in this transition time frame.

No call at this time about Halloween but stayed tuned, things are going to be interesting.

[chief7]

ow.ly/TCMCE

[amugs]

ow.ly/TCMCE  

Read that and good laugh imo. If we get AO and NAO cooperating in Dec then I think we go wall to wall this winter. Not your typical el nino set up here.

[nutleyblizzard]

ow.ly/TCMCE  

Read that and good laugh imo. If we get AO and NAO cooperating in Dec then I think we go wall to wall this winter. Not your typical el nino set up here.

Having a wall to wall winter would be very atypical of el nino behavior, but lately I've been leaning in that direction. I have to give it another 3-4 weeks to see how everything evolves with regards to snow cover in Eurasia and Canada along with the position of the GOA low. If things fall into place for us- and it won't take much, then I can see a very snowy scenario unfolding for us where yardsticks will be in short supply this winter.

[Frank_Wx]

A couple of members have asked about the potential Halloween storm. At this time, this does not look like a wintry event. Also, the possibility exists this storm could head out to sea. The 500mb level is not conducive for wintry weather unless major changes occur over the next couple of days.



The pattern remains transient, therefore, the flow stays progressive and the ridge begins to slide east as the coastal begins to develop along the east coast. Also, the NAO and AO looks positive. The only way this turns into a potent Nor'easter is if the timing between the western ridge and the phase between the northern and southern stream energies sync up. With a progressive pattern driven by the +NAO/AO and transient EPO/PNA, that looks unlikely but we'll see. Plenty of time left.

Current forecast for Halloween is rain with temps in the 50's. Gross!!

[sroc4]

One thing Ill add is that with two possible recurving typhoons in the Pac over the next 7-14 days the LR model solns are liable to continue to evolve.  Again assuming one or both recurve.  I don't think we see whats really going to happen for at least 5days.  Ensemble trends are hinting at a deeper trough in the east around Halloween, but not quite there yet.  Hurry up and wait.

[jmanley32]

One thing Ill add is that with two possible recurving typhoons in the Pac over the next 7-14 days the LR model solns are liable to continue to evolve.  Again assuming one or both recurve.  I don't think we see whats really going to happen for at least 5days.  Ensemble trends are hinting at a deeper trough in the east around Halloween, but not quite there yet.  Hurry up and wait.

Hurry up and wait lol, oxymoron if I have ever heard one, yeah your probably right I remember often these typhoons effecting out weather do not show true surface model maps until very hear the event. Was the same thing happening in 2011 with the snowstorm? Was it doe to a typhoon? Well rain and 50's on Halloween would uyes downright stink, looks like it could be very windy too verbatim on the models. I remember last years windstorm on Nov 2nd, a lot of trees branches down etc. Wait and see is all we can do, will be interesting to see if there is any drastic change. Thanks Frank and sroc for your continued insights.

[sroc4]

One thing Ill add is that with two possible recurving typhoons in the Pac over the next 7-14 days the LR model solns are liable to continue to evolve.  Again assuming one or both recurve.  I don't think we see whats really going to happen for at least 5days.  Ensemble trends are hinting at a deeper trough in the east around Halloween, but not quite there yet.  Hurry up and wait.

Hurry up and wait lol, oxymoron if I have ever heard one, yeah your probably right I remember often these typhoons effecting out weather do not show true surface model maps until very hear the event.  Was the same thing happening in 2011 with the snowstorm?  Was it doe to a typhoon?  Well rain and 50's on Halloween would uyes downright stink, looks like it could be very windy too verbatim on the models.  I remember last years windstorm on Nov 2nd, a lot of trees branches down etc.  Wait and see is all we can do, will be interesting to see if there is any drastic change. Thanks Frank and sroc for your continued insights.

Jman recount the Snowstorm in the northeast around Thanksgiving last year.  That was a direct result of re-curving supertyphoon Nuri earlier in the month, or I should say the pattern that caused the re-curve.  Release of a ton of latent heat into the upper atmosphere as it transitions from a warm core system into a cold core system in the northwern latitudes amplifies the jets. In theory 6-10days after the recurving typhoon passes 130E trough tends to dig into the east.  Watch the models for consistency on the track of the systems in the Pac. to know if the pattern stays progressive or amplifies.

[weatherwatchermom]

A couple of members have asked about the potential Halloween storm. At this time, this does not look like a wintry event. Also, the possibility exists this storm could head out to sea. The 500mb level is not conducive for wintry weather unless major changes occur over the next couple of days.



The pattern remains transient, therefore, the flow stays progressive and the ridge begins to slide east as the coastal begins to develop along the east coast. Also, the NAO and AO looks positive. The only way this turns into a potent Nor'easter is if the timing between the western ridge and the phase between the northern and southern stream energies sync up. With a progressive pattern driven by the +NAO/AO and transient EPO/PNA, that looks unlikely but we'll see. Plenty of time left.

Current forecast for Halloween is rain with temps in the 50's. Gross!!

Unless its snow...lets hope it pushes out to sea!! Halloween on a Saturday this year...and gonna rain on the poor kids...no justice
..still time!!

[amugs]

Great News on El Nino #'s - ripped this from another site:
..................1+2
R/10/97......3.9
10/14/15.....2.5 -0 cooling and no comparison to '97 hands down if so i will beat you down -

...................3
R/10/97....3.4
10/14/15...2.6

..................3.4
R10/97......2.6
10/14/15...2.4

...................4 - BAZINGA BABY!! Trop forcing for our winter!!
R10/09......1.3
10/14/15...1.1

@ Nutely, i concur 100% on your post - I was just pointing out that with a Neg AO and NAO we COULD see a bang bang winter.

[snow247]

Always enjoy your positivity, mugs

[Frank_Wx]

A couple of members have asked about the potential Halloween storm. At this time, this does not look like a wintry event. Also, the possibility exists this storm could head out to sea. The 500mb level is not conducive for wintry weather unless major changes occur over the next couple of days.



The pattern remains transient, therefore, the flow stays progressive and the ridge begins to slide east as the coastal begins to develop along the east coast. Also, the NAO and AO looks positive. The only way this turns into a potent Nor'easter is if the timing between the western ridge and the phase between the northern and southern stream energies sync up. With a progressive pattern driven by the +NAO/AO and transient EPO/PNA, that looks unlikely but we'll see. Plenty of time left.

Current forecast for Halloween is rain with temps in the 50's. Gross!!

Unless its snow...lets hope it pushes out to sea!! Halloween on a Saturday this year...and gonna rain on the poor kids...not justice...still time!!

I know, timing has been really unlucky the last few years. We'll see what happens!

[nutleyblizzard]

Great News on  El Nino #'s - ripped this from another site:
..................1+2
R/10/97......3.9
10/14/15.....2.5 -0 cooling and no comparison to '97 hands down if so i will beat you down -

...................3
R/10/97....3.4
10/14/15...2.6

..................3.4
R10/97......2.6
10/14/15...2.4

...................4 - BAZINGA BABY!! Trop forcing for our winter!!
R10/09......1.3
10/14/15...1.1

@ Nutely, i concur 100% on your post - I was just pointing out that with a Neg AO and NAO we COULD see a bang bang winter.

I would not at all be surprised to see regions 3.4/4 uptick before they peak out. I believe regions 1+2 will continue to cool. That will only strengthen the idea of dateline forcing. I'm eager to see on Monday when the weekly ENSO report comes out.

[nutleyblizzard]

A couple of members have asked about the potential Halloween storm. At this time, this does not look like a wintry event. Also, the possibility exists this storm could head out to sea. The 500mb level is not conducive for wintry weather unless major changes occur over the next couple of days.



The pattern remains transient, therefore, the flow stays progressive and the ridge begins to slide east as the coastal begins to develop along the east coast. Also, the NAO and AO looks positive. The only way this turns into a potent Nor'easter is if the timing between the western ridge and the phase between the northern and southern stream energies sync up. With a progressive pattern driven by the +NAO/AO and transient EPO/PNA, that looks unlikely but we'll see. Plenty of time left.

Current forecast for Halloween is rain with temps in the 50's. Gross!!

Unless its snow...lets hope it pushes out to sea!! Halloween on a Saturday this year...and gonna rain on the poor kids...not justice...still time!!

I know, timing has been really unlucky the last few years. We'll see what happens!

That's why I hope we have a predominate -NAO this winter. It would shun the progressive pattern and slow things down which would result in more phases to occur. While I think we would still cash in with multiple snowstorms with such an active southern jet, If sustained blocking were to develop in the coming weeks and months ahead...LOOK OUT!!!

[amugs]

Siberian Snow growth - woop woop!! AO going under the Mason Dixon line this winter here peeps if you know what I mean!!

[jmanley32]

Siberian Snow growth - woop woop!! AO going under the Mason Dixon line this winter here peeps if you know what I mean!!

So if I have been understanding this correctly the deeper the snow and further south it gets the better for us at winter it is? Pray for that blocking. Off topic but update on my mother in law she had a second worse heart attack over the weekend and is still in the CCU, stable but does not look likely she will make it to her daughters wedding. : (

[NjWeatherGuy]

It snowed in NWNJ October 2009, so I don't believe the "october snow correlates to bad winters" phrase is 100% efficient. Also, pattern looks to become more active in the next week or so.

The times it snows widespread early seems to correlate with a bad winter and i dont know why, the bizarre snowstorm of October 2011 was a great example, covered most of the N half or the state and got 6" in the valley here which is very rare. Turned out to be a bad winter.

[Frank_Wx]

These maps are cool. Shows winter temps during different phases of El Nino (strong, moderate, and weak). Best Nino winters are the moderate ones. If this year's Nino peaks early, then it could get very interesting.



Here is precipitation

[Frank_Wx]

CFS is predicting an active December. All those cold anomalies in the south is a result of an active STJ bringing a lot of rain and possibly wintry weather to parts of the southeast. Obviously an amplified STJ results in plenty of storms for us.

[Frank_Wx]

Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere running above normal

[Frank_Wx]

There's many many many different variables I'm looking at for the upcoming winter forecast. It's not just ENSO, SSTs, Snow Cover, and Stratosphere. You'll read more about it soon enough.

[Sponsored content]